Has the Shipping Forecast improved recently?

[lustyd]

Both Shipping Forecast and Inshore Waters are too short term in outlook

Technically they include all the information you need for several days if you use them properly. I wouldn't suggest it though given the existance of predictwind and windguru and similar. It's good to understand but it would be one of the lowest on my list for real world use

 

[CM74]

It's amazing how far away you can receive 198!
There's also a surprising amount of SW radio around, and at sea it seems there's less interference - and long night watches to try and figure it out...
Certainly in commercial ships though the shipping forecast is an anachronism - we have to have NAVTEX anyway but even that is old hat really.

I do rather like LW really though! There's something vaguely mysterious and comforting about it

 

[Gwylan]

Yes they do which is why the Shipping Forecast readers should be employed to read it as a specialist task which needs a bit of knowledge.
Instead, they seem to rope in the nearest person, whether it's the tea girl or a random Caribbean jazz singer there are always mistakes assuming you can understand them at all.
Why not have a dedicated team? I know at least one BBC technician who is an enthusiastic yachtsman and has a clear voice; he would love the gig but but unfirtunately he doesn't tick any diversity boxes..

There is a minor point that the convention requires it to be read at dictation speed.

Two things there.
There is an international treaty obligation to broadcast the weather forecast.
Also that convention refers to dictation speed.
NAVTEX generally does the job though

 

[[70521]]

I have no idea if the BBC Shipping Forecast is better, worse, or even if it is still broadcast. Never listened to it for decades.
I do refer to the Inshore Waters for coastal sailing, though only in addition to other forecasts - generally comparing multiple models using something like Predict Wind.
Both Shipping Forecast and Inshore Waters are too short term in outlook for using for any cruise or passage planning. I like to look at least 5 days ahead, especially before a longer crossing (like to/from Norway) - and often been actively preparing to be in shelter for a severe storm, predicted for the last 5 days but not yet mentioned by the official forecasts.

I disagree, how many of us are at sea on passage for more than 24 hours around the UK?

If I am planning a passage I use all the whizzy websites, and very good they are too, but when at sea the Maritime Safety Information Broadcasts {MSIB} are not updated as often as the Met Office publish the Shipping/Inshore Forecast that I was receiving on Radio 4 and by email when less than three miles offshore.

At the last Weather and Sailing event I attended I had a long chat with one of the Shipping Forecast forecasters and began to really understand what their forecast was all about, simply the wind and sea state is the maximum in a sea or inshore area and within the time boundaries of the forecast, i.e. upto 24 hours.

In May 2020 just off Dover I arrived on deck in the middle of the night to take over watch when the MSIB came over the radio - Dover included a F8! We looked at each other and said 'that was a change to anything anybody was saying an hour ago' (more like where the 'F' did that come from)! I am pretty sure that none of the whizzy websites would have forecast and warned us 5 days beforehand.

 

[dunedin]

I disagree, how many of us are at sea on passage for more than 24 hours around the UK?

If I am planning a passage I use all the whizzy websites, and very good they are too, but when at sea the Maritime Safety Information Broadcasts {MSIB} are not updated as often as the Met Office publish the Shipping/Inshore Forecast that I was receiving on Radio 4 and by email when less than three miles offshore.

At the last Weather and Sailing event I attended I had a long chat with one of the Shipping Forecast forecasters and began to really understand what their forecast was all about, simply the wind and sea state is the maximum in a sea or inshore area and within the time boundaries of the forecast, i.e. upto 24 hours.

In May 2020 just off Dover I arrived on deck in the middle of the night to take over watch when the MSIB came over the radio - Dover included a F8! We looked at each other and said 'that was a change to anything anybody was saying an hour ago' (more like where the 'F' did that come from)! I am pretty sure that none of the whizzy websites would have forecast and warned us 5 days beforehand.

Slightly confused by your post.……

If “just off Dover” by definition you must be within 12 miles of shore therefore in scope of the Inshore Waters forecast (broadcast on VHF as well as readily picked up by internet close to shore, as you were) - the Shipping Forecast broadcast on BBC radio, which was the subject of the OP’s post, is not relevant. Also not sure how often broadcast on BBC radio, but not frequently I assume.

And in my post that you “disagree” with, it was just the BBC Shipping Forecast that I said I never use. I noted that I do refer to the Inshore Waters forecast (mostly obtained by internet, even in remote Pictish anchorages), as one of multiple sources.

Also, taking a 5 day forward view is always better than just using the short term Inshore / Shipping forecast horizon - particularly when comparing models to assess the degree of uncertainty. But of course I supplement this with short term forecasts and updates - if weather particularly in flux, may check latest forecasts multiple times intro-day (some are updated more frequently than Inshore Waters 6 hour cycle).

Plus of course, sailing in Scotland and the Baltic, very used to the wind not listening to the forecast - so not surprised to get 30+ knots off a steep island or hillside irrespective of what the forecasters said.

 

[[70521]]

Slightly confused by your post.……

If “just off Dover” by definition you must be within 12 miles of shore therefore in scope of the Inshore Waters forecast (broadcast on VHF as well as readily picked up by internet close to shore, as you were) - the Shipping Forecast broadcast on BBC radio, which was the subject of the OP’s post, is not relevant. Also not sure how often broadcast on BBC radio, but not frequently I assume.

And in my post that you “disagree” with, it was just the BBC Shipping Forecast that I said I never use. I noted that I do refer to the Inshore Waters forecast (mostly obtained by internet, even in remote Pictish anchorages), as one of multiple sources.

Also, taking a 5 day forward view is always better than just using the short term Inshore / Shipping forecast horizon - particularly when comparing models to assess the degree of uncertainty. But of course I supplement this with short term forecasts and updates - if weather particularly in flux, may check latest forecasts multiple times intro-day (some are updated more frequently than Inshore Waters 6 hour cycle).

Plus of course, sailing in Scotland and the Baltic, very used to the wind not listening to the forecast - so not surprised to get 30+ knots off a steep island or hillside irrespective of what the forecasters said.

People getting confused by my posts is never a surprise, sometimes I confuse myself!

As you say 'Just off Dover', is well within the 12 mile limit of the Inshore forecast, I tend to think of the shipping and inshore forecast as being one and the same thing. The inshore has a little more detail, but still covers a huge area. At a price the Met Office will provide you with a far more detailed one.

Here are the current forecasts for my local area, Plymouth. Issued at: 12:00 (UTC) on Thu 21 Oct 2021

Shipping

WIND
Northwest 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first.
SEA STATE
Rough, occasionally very rough at first, becoming moderate later.
WEATHER
Fair.
VISIBILITY
Good.

Inshore

WIND
North 4 or 5, backing northwest 3 to 5.
SEA STATE
Rough or very rough at first west of the Lizard, otherwise moderate or rough becoming moderate later, occasionally slight later in lyme bay.
WEATHER
Fair.
VISIBILITY
Good.

Not a huge amount of difference between them.

Taking the five day view is not what the shipping forecast does, it is the Met Office forecasting what is going to happen in the next 6/12/24 hours. Hence my comment about using all the whizzy websites when planning a trip where I could take the longer view, but once I am at sea I am reliant on what I can hear via the BBC or GC MSIB. At that point I am committed and what is going to happen in five days time is not relevant to the current passage. Last May hearing that a F8 was imminent allowed us to get ready for it, soup and sandwiches, and making sure that everything was stowed securely before it hit. Out of interest the anemometer recorded a constant 47 knots for an hour.

I do miss the anabatic and katabatic winds of my home waters and hope to be back soon.

 

[Koeketiene]

SSB is in huge decline these days from what I can tell, and LW is on very shaky ground since that bandwidth is needed for other things. Hopefully LEO sat-comms will provide us with the new low cost reliable service we're all hoping for. There was also a recent thread where most people with Navtex said they don't actually use it and wouldn't fit a replacement if it died. It's a shame as NavTex seems a good solution to the problem.

When I bought my two previous boats (22 and 17 years ago) a Navtex was one of the first bits of kit I fiited.
Changed boat again last year.
She does not have Navtex, and I can't honestly say I miss it.

 

[lustyd]

Taking the five day view is not what the shipping forecast does

The synopsis gives you a longer term view, don’t just listen for your area. Also the areas around yours give you insight into what’s coming. It’s a definite skill set but the shipping forecast does cover more than 24 hours.

 

[DanTribe]

I heard an amusing story.
An inexperienced announcer was reading the shipping forecast.
"Here is the shipping bulletin issued by the Met Office at 2300 hours Greenwich.

Meantime there are gales in Thames, Dover, Wight."

 

[AntarcticPilot]

If you think the shipping forecast is hard to follow, try the aeronautical forecast that you get in the states when flying a light aircraft. It's in a totally standard form, but gets all the local weather information into something like a line of text, and is usually rattled off by someone who has already read it out 50 times today. As a limey, I found the Western US accent didn't help, but that was me. It's all there, but it's so densely packed that it's really hard to take it in.

 

[Kukri]

You mean - I may have to retire my Brookes and Gatehouse Homer / Heron?

Very good for 198.

 

[Gary Fox]

Slight drift..do any forecasts give katabatic winds? Or are you just meant to do your own predictions?
A Norwegian friend entered a large fjord in calm conditions, and in the evening was knocked flat by a millions tons of freezing wind rushing down the valley, totally out of the blue. Reading between the lines of his modest account of that evening, it was a terrifying, apocalyptic experience.
(He is a meticulous Nordic yachtsman, who always gets the best forecasts and happily overwinters his Alegro 33 in Lofoten,...not a guy to get caught out easily.)
Edit, his Youtube channel is Sailing Embla and there are definitely no bikinis worn..

 

[AntarcticPilot]

Slight drift..do any forecasts give katabatic winds? Or are you just meant to do your own predictions?
A Norwegian friend entered a large fjord in calm conditions, and in the evening was knocked flat by a millions tons of freezing wind rushing down the valley, totally out of the blue. Reading between the lines of his modest account of that evening, it was a terrifying, apocalyptic experience.
(He is a meticulous Nordic yachtsman, who always gets the best forecasts and happily overwinters his Alegro 33 in Lofoten,...not a guy to get caught out easily.)
Edit, his Youtube channel is Sailing Embla and there are definitely no bikinis worn..

Basically, a katabatic wind in mountainous terrain is not going to be forecastable, because it's on a scale below that of the grid used to model the atmosphere. Local knowledge probably helps; there will probably be signs that one is imminent; I've seen such signs in Svalbard (masses of heavy cloud spilling over mountain tops, but signs may be specific to particular places). They are a possibility anywhere where there's a glacier or snow field at high elevation next to the sea.

Antarctic katabatic winds are completely predictable in many places, because they are the result of the shape of the terrain over thousands of kilometres - which results in some places having windspeeds of about 100 knots for a large part of the year! But you can predict where they will be most intense from a digital elevation model of the continent. From memory, Cape Dennison is particularly afflicted.

 

[Kukri]

I’ve gone from F2 to F8 in thirty seconds off Svalbard.

 

[Stemar]

I’ve gone from F2 to F8 in thirty seconds off Svalbard.

!

Drifting from another thread, that's a time I really want to have my lines led to the cockpit - I really wouldn't want to have to go to the mast to sort out reefing a full main and genny when that happens! I'm unlikely to find myself sailing off Svalbard, but you don't have to go that far afield to find nasty katabatic winds

 

[AntarcticPilot]

!

Drifting from another thread, that's a time I really want to have my lines led to the cockpit - I really wouldn't want to have to go to the mast to sort out reefing a full main and genny when that happens! I'm unlikely to find myself sailing off Svalbard, but you don't have to go that far afield to find nasty katabatic winds

The nearest you'll find real katabatic winds (gravity currents driven by temperature differences) is Norway; there are none in the UK; you really need glaciers or permanent snow-fields for them to form, and we don't have any - I understand there was a tiny perennial snow patch on Ben Nevis at one time, but it has succumbed to rising temperatures. The basic mechanism of a katabatic wind is that air at a high elevation is cooled, and then flows downhill, forming a very fast, usually local (but see Antarctica!) blast of wind. The classic non-Antarctic example is williwaws in the Magellan Straits. Antarctica gets extreme examples because the topography lends itself to cold air flowing downhill over very long (1000km) distances; where the topography also has a "funnelling" effect is where you get persistent, very high velocity katabatic winds. There's nowhere with a suitable cold-reservoir at elevation in the UK. What people refer to as katabatic winds are usually rollers (horizontal vortices downwind or an obstruction) or sometimes foehn winds.

 

[kaj]

Our host YM has it's say.

Once in Croatia the neighbouring skipper warned us about the next night's Bura.

 

[franksingleton]

The shipping forecast is, and only can be, a headline warning service. Written within a total wordage of 330 words. Try sailing across the Channel on a 12 hour passage and try writing a meaningful description of what you experienced. Then, think of the forecaster having to cover some 30 areas of many shapes snd sizes with a forecast for 24 hours. The Inshore waters forecast is a little better but still not easy to be meaningful and concise.p
GRIB and GRIB products are great - forget Preductwind. Why pay when it is all free, paid for by taxpayers? But, without a satellite phone and outside VHF range, the GMDSS NAVTEX services are your sole guide. OK, for fairly short, 2 or 3 days, forecasts are generally good enough to keep you out of trouble but you will be unable to get warning of it going wrong.

 

[Goldie]

I’m reminded of a conversation with a good (but now late) friend (Ron) a few years ago. Ron was a forecaster with the U.K. Met Office.

Ron: “Are you planning on sailing this weekend?”

Me: “No, the forecast is rubbish”

Ron (in mock indignation): “I’ll have you know that the forecast is EXCELLENT ……. it’s just the weather that’s going to be rubbish…”

Fair point! RIP Ron.

 

[KINGFISHER 9]

Haven't listened to the UK Shipping Forecast in years ... I'll bet they don't play Sailing By any more ......