Greece - New management !

[Sarnia]

Whilst I go along with the 2nd part of your statement, I can't with the first.
Greece, to get out of its current debt burden will have to repudiate them. That will be economically bearable for Germany and shrugged off by the ECB but will be nigh insupportable for Italy and Spain. In any case the continuation of the Greek economy is predicated on the with-held last tranche of the bail-out.
The Greeks still have the lowest direct taxation of all the original members of the EU - so where is Tsiparis going to get all this money to pay for his austerity-busting ideas?
Will the great Lending Public world-wide be prepared to lend their savings to a country which since it's inception has defaulted about ever 6th year? I'm sure Sarnia and Tony Cross will be the first in the queue ;-)
The truth is that the Greeks have wanted to enjoy all the goodies they've seen in the rest of the EU but felt disinclined to pay for it - their successive governments have borrowed to fund the shortfall. This borrowing spree came to an end in 2009, and the first screws of reality have proved too much and they have voted to return to Never-Never Land.
Tsipras MAY get away with repudiating the debt - he'll not be able to fund the goodies he's promised with just the Greeks paying for it.
In fact not much to lose - the total debt is virtually unrepayable - but the Greeks, if they do go it alone, will have to tighten their belts considerably compared to now.
Perhaps he'll persuade Putin to ride to his rescue? I think Venezuela won't be able to...

I just hope we aren't going to see a return to the Greece of 1945-6 or even the early 70s.

Charles heavy sarcasm to my post, which he said was 'interesting' but managed to put a contribution together belatedly, as the only interesting comments to him are usually his own, we do not need to be an economist, and who would want to be anyway, to have very clear understandings of what Brussels is really all about, a simple tolerance of others opinions Charles, or we may thing your a Brussels commissar.

 

[charles_reed]

Charles heavy sarcasm to my post, which he said was 'interesting' but managed to put a contribution together belatedly, as the only interesting comments to him are usually his own, we do not need to be an economist, and who would want to be anyway, to have very clear understandings of what Brussels is really all about, a simple tolerance of others opinions Charles, or we may thing your a Brussels commissar.

Oh dear - obviously hurt your feelings, for which I apologise. I still think your contribution was interesting but lacked factual basis and was hoping for some more of the reasons behind your opinions.
Incidentally I'm far from being a Brussels commissar - I can see all too clearly the commission's faults having had to have dealt with them quite frequently in the past.
Though probably too late, the Greeks are at last making a negotiating stand instead of being turned over to bail out a whole lot of German and French bank lenders - only 15% of the loan has gone to the Greeks - the rest has gone to the banks so that their respective Governments didn't have to bail them out.
The Frau Doktor's recent remarks suggest she's forgotten how to add up - there is no way Greece can afford to repay that debt. The trouble is that it's no longer just got an economic dimension, politics have entered the fray and Podemos in Spain and 5 Stars in Italy are stiffening the resolve of the hard-line, austerity brigade to fight back. The Germans are virtually alone in their adherence to bitter medicine.
The Germans have had to back down in two recent decisions, culminating in the ECB announcing their QE programme.
Look here to see the opposition to Merkel/Schaeuble line http://councilforeuropeanstudies.or...dmeAETSTlPX6BV0-fxbHNa9P8U8ELHtE0oaAmJl8P8HAQ

 

[Melody]

We had some Dutch friends here last night and I was interested to learn that, in the Netherlands, there isn't the fierce opposition to re-negotiation of the Greek loan as in Germany. I think the reason SYRIZA wants to speak directly to the leaders of the Euro countries may be that the majority might be sympathetic.

After all, if Greece is forced to exit the euro zone, the debt is much less likely to be paid.

 

[grumpygit]

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Initially at least, I suspect that there will be little impact on things outside Athens. The things I will be watching for are changes to the tax collection regime, increases in civil servant numbers and how the government deals with the external debt. It is this last that might have the biggest effect on us long term visitors to the country, as if the new mob are too flagrant in their dealings with the EU, ECB and IMF then it will lead to the exit from the Eurozone (note, not from the EU) with all the attendant chaos of a return to the drachma. Ho hum, may you live in interesting times.
Bye the bye, there are already reports of significant capital flight from Greek banks......

All fair assumptions. Yes I think we that spend our time in Greece are in for very interesting times and I for one would not like to bet a penny, cent or Drachma on the outcome.
The politically motivated innovation of the € was driven primarily by the Germans with the French poodle wagging the tail and the bandwagon just rolled on through the rest of Europe driven by a undemocratic and unaccountable institution in Brussels. Spain is also following in Greece's steps and probably with Italy not far behind sucking others in also.
The Greeks were in serious trouble before the Troika austerity measures were harshly imposed on them and it clearly has not worked. A vast majority of Greeks have suffered greatly and still more to come I would think. Syriza may be what is needed to pull the country back from the mire, the party has certainly got the voice of lot of the Greek people, but their rhetoric is changing daily . . . can they deliver?
Syriza did not win by a vast majority as the 149 seats suggest, because in Greek law the first past the post are given 50 unelected seats in the Parliament. Greece is reputed to be inventors of democracy . . Mmm
History only will tell and most of us will not be about to see it because there is no quick fix and I doubt a generation will not be enough.
What it will mean for us boaters in the short and long term is unimaginable and we will have to go with the flow and accept the decisions of the Greek government or leave which would be a crying shame for us and I would imagine most of you guys that sail the Greek waters.
Let just hope for stability for the Greeks and us.

 

[Jegs]

We had some Dutch friends here last night and I was interested to learn that, in the Netherlands, there isn't the fierce opposition to re-negotiation of the Greek loan as in Germany. I think the reason SYRIZA wants to speak directly to the leaders of the Euro countries may be that the majority might be sympathetic.

After all, if Greece is forced to exit the euro zone, the debt is much less likely to be paid.

The chances of the debt being paid under any circumstances are zero.

John G

 

[charles_reed]

We had some Dutch friends here last night and I was interested to learn that, in the Netherlands, there isn't the fierce opposition to re-negotiation of the Greek loan as in Germany. I think the reason SYRIZA wants to speak directly to the leaders of the Euro countries may be that the majority might be sympathetic.

After all, if Greece is forced to exit the euro zone, the debt is much less likely to be paid.

The Dutch have long been commercially capable, and can see the impossibility of Greece repaying their current debt. I sometimes wonder about the morality of committing future generations to paying for our current consumption. After all that is all that's what delaying maturity of a debt actually means.
Here's a nice €urofudge. Greece repudiates her current debt - the ECB buy up government bonds for all the countries out of pocket as a result of that, by new-printed €, but the Greek Central Bank buy the 80% of the German repayment, so that the Bundesbank doesn't have to traduce its principles. The IMF get their part back from the Greeks, probably by selling their German bonds, so Christine Lagarde doesn't have to carry out her threats of "consequences".
Greece continues in the €, as a non-voting partner, just using the currency. As Greek cruising liveaboards we'll see an even bigger drop in the cost of living as Greece has to balance its books, except withdrawing € might be a problem because so many Greek banks have gone bust, after losing ECB support.
Just see Standard & Poor's trying to evaluate the creditworth of those German bonds held by Greece.
As Duncan wished us:- "We live in interesting times".

 

[Tony Cross]

The Dutch have long been commercially capable, and can see the impossibility of Greece repaying their current debt. I sometimes wonder about the morality of committing future generations to paying for our current consumption. After all that is all that's what delaying maturity of a debt actually means.
Here's a nice €urofudge. Greece repudiates her current debt - the ECB buy up government bonds for all the countries out of pocket as a result of that, by new-printed €, but the Greek Central Bank buy the 80% of the German repayment, so that the Bundesbank doesn't have to traduce its principles. The IMF get their part back from the Greeks, probably by selling their German bonds, so Christine Lagarde doesn't have to carry out her threats of "consequences".
Greece continues in the €, as a non-voting partner, just using the currency. As Greek cruising liveaboards we'll see an even bigger drop in the cost of living as Greece has to balance its books, except withdrawing € might be a problem because so many Greek banks have gone bust, after losing ECB support.
Just see Standard & Poor's trying to evaluate the creditworth of those German bonds held by Greece.
As Duncan wished us:- "We live in interesting times".

It might all fall apart even sooner, see http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31090415

 

[Sarnia]

Oh dear - obviously hurt your feelings, for which I apologise. I still think your contribution was interesting but lacked factual basis and was hoping for some more of the reasons behind your opinions.
Incidentally I'm far from being a Brussels commissar - I can see all too clearly the commission's faults having had to have dealt with them quite frequently in the past.
Though probably too late, the Greeks are at last making a negotiating stand instead of being turned over to bail out a whole lot of German and French bank lenders - only 15% of the loan has gone to the Greeks - the rest has gone to the banks so that their respective Governments didn't have to bail them out.
The Frau Doktor's recent remarks suggest she's forgotten how to add up - there is no way Greece can afford to repay that debt. The trouble is that it's no longer just got an economic dimension, politics have entered the fray and Podemos in Spain and 5 Stars in Italy are stiffening the resolve of the hard-line, austerity brigade to fight back. The Germans are virtually alone in their adherence to bitter medicine.
The Germans have had to back down in two recent decisions, culminating in the ECB announcing their QE programme.
Look here to see the opposition to Merkel/Schaeuble line http://councilforeuropeanstudies.or...dmeAETSTlPX6BV0-fxbHNa9P8U8ELHtE0oaAmJl8P8HAQ

No hurt feelings, no apology required thank you.
The OP asked our opinions as to how the new governmnebt could effect boaties here, I thought my comments went far enough without further detailed and very subjective economic opinions of mine, so many considerations, political and social, but this is Greece so nothing surprises to much. I feel it is very much a wait and see.
I am here for a few weeks, had some heavy weather and lots rain until today. nice sunshine

 

[BurnitBlue]

I hope the Action boat storage yards are stocking up on Diesel for their travel lifts. It will take a lot of fuel to launch the vast number of boats (well over a 1,000) in their yards.

I am not really worried, but Spring will be about the time when the EU reply to the new government will start to take effect. Nobody can predict what the effect will be. For me, whatever the effect, it may bite at launch.

 

[charles_reed]

It might all fall apart even sooner, see http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31090415

Withdrawal controls next? Doubt ECB will cut off the lifelines yet, until the politicos have had a chance to meet and compare expectations.
Might be an idea to have a reserve of €notes if you're in Greece.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/...20150203?feedType=nl&feedName=ukdailyinvestor

 

[nimbusgb]

I hope the Action boat storage yards are stocking up on Diesel for their travel lifts. It will take a lot of fuel to launch the vast number of boats (well over a 1,000) in their yards.

I am not really worried, but Spring will be about the time when the EU reply to the new government will start to take effect. Nobody can predict what the effect will be. For me, whatever the effect, it may bite at launch.

I doubt that a large percentage of people will gap it from Greece. I'm in Aktio and it would be very unlikely for me to want to go to Italy, Croatia or Turkey. Certainly not keen on bringing the boat back here.

Whatever happens the exchange rate is going to make it worthwhile staying.

According to the port police my dekpa stamp from last september means i'm covered well into this season so even if the fit hits the shan it's launch and slip over the horizon for me.

Not worth worrying about.

 

[BurnitBlue]

Actually I am a wee bit concerned that Greece may run out of Diesel fuel because they will have no currency or credit to import more. Without diesel fuel those boats on shore in Aktio and elsewhere will stay on shore. The travel lifts will have a low priority for the country.

If the boats have to stay on shore than the boat yards still get the storage fee in full so as far as Greece is concerned, diesel for delivery trucks will be the priority.

Edit to point out that leaving Greece is not a concern if the boat is afloat. The concern for me is the possibility that my boat will get trapped ashore in a bankrupt Greece. The boat yards will not care because they will get their fee for storage. The boats afloat can leave or stay, it matters not a jot. But first you have to be launched.

Hope I explained my concern better this time.

 

[grumpygit]

Withdrawal controls next? Doubt ECB will cut off the lifelines yet, until the politicos have had a chance to meet and compare expectations.
Might be an idea to have a reserve of €notes if you're in Greece.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/...20150203?feedType=nl&feedName=ukdailyinvestor

I think I have to agree, that withdrawl controls will most probably have to be implicated if the mass exodus of withdawls persists. And yes a reserve of cash €'s is sound advice because l can see the ATM's drying up if something isn't sorted out soon. We'll be gathering some up as we come through europe.
I have been told people don't want the Greek €'s that are marked with an x in the serial number because they say they with get stuck with them. l can't get my head around that one, surely a € is a €. Urban myth??

 

[BurnitBlue]

I think I have to agree, that withdrawl controls will most probably have to be implicated if the mass exodus of withdawls persists. And yes a reserve of cash €'s is sound advice because l can see the ATM's drying up if something isn't sorted out soon. We'll be gathering some up as we come through europe.
I have been told people don't want the Greek €'s that are marked with an x in the serial number because they say they with get stuck with them. l can't get my head around that one, surely a € is a €. Urban myth??

I would guess that if Greece were forced out of the Euro zone then Euro notes issued in Greece would be worthless. It set up this way to stop individual countries printing Euro's and spending them in another country with no check on their source.

I reckon that if Greece did exit the Euro, there would be a surplice of Euro bank notes for the rest of the Euro zone. Put it this way in extreme, if all countries except (say) Germany were to abandon the Euro, then Germany would be the only place left to spend them. Germany would be swamped with cheap useless Euro's buying German automobiles.

This is where Greece has a weapon to blackmail the Euro zone. In my opinion, of course.

Edit I am not explaining myself very well today. I meant to say that if Greece Exited Euro's then Euro's marked with X will have to be "vaporised" or there will be an excess of Euros for the now smaller Euro zone to use. If they were "vaporised" then the same proportion will exist so no discern able change. Euro's marked with an X are potentially useless if the worse happens.

 

[grumpygit]

I would guess that if Greece were forced out of the Euro zone then Euro notes issued in Greece would be worthless. It set up this way to stop individual countries printing Euro's and spending them in another country with no check on their source.

I reckon that if Greece did exit the Euro, there would be a surplice of Euro bank notes for the rest of the Euro zone. Put it this way in extreme, if all countries except (say) Germany were to abandon the Euro, then Germany would be the only place left to spend them. Germany would be swamped with cheap useless Euro's buying German automobiles.

This is where Greece has a weapon to blackmail the Euro zone. In my opinion, of course.

There again if there were to be a Grexit the amount of the total Greek issue could be taken out of circulation within the €zone.

 

[charles_reed]

I would guess that if Greece were forced out of the Euro zone then Euro notes issued in Greece would be worthless. It set up this way to stop individual countries printing Euro's and spending them in another country with no check on their source.

I reckon that if Greece did exit the Euro, there would be a surplice of Euro bank notes for the rest of the Euro zone. Put it this way in extreme, if all countries except (say) Germany were to abandon the Euro, then Germany would be the only place left to spend them. Germany would be swamped with cheap useless Euro's buying German automobiles.

This is where Greece has a weapon to blackmail the Euro zone. In my opinion, of course.

Edit I am not explaining myself very well today. I meant to say that if Greece Exited Euro's then Euro's marked with X will have to be "vaporised" or there will be an excess of Euros for the now smaller Euro zone to use. If they were "vaporised" then the same proportion will exist so no discern able change. Euro's marked with an X are potentially useless if the worse happens.

Don't believe any national central banks issue € notes - all done from Frankfurt, only the coins have a national identity and as that's about 0.8% of the cash in €uro countries it's well-nigh irrelevant. "€ notes marked with an X" is an urban myth.
Don't fancy super Mario's position as he's just been forced into the political front line, if he cuts off the transfusion he throws Greece out of the €.
Greece was in a much stronger negotiating position when the crisis first struck - now its position is considerably weaker, but it's good to see some sort of power-negotiating going on after the supine walk of Papandreou to the guillotine.
Any overreaching is likely to be by the Germans who, despite their powerful position in the €, have just lost two battles with the others.
Jens Weidermann is the one to watch, likely to pull down the whole house of cards.
Frankly, I see Greece as merely the excuse to prune the over-reaching German diktat to the others in the EC.
Trouble is the Greek people, for all their gullibility, are being made the pawns in a much more complex power-game.

 

[macd]

I have been told people don't want the Greek €'s that are marked with an x in the serial number because they say they with get stuck with them. l can't get my head around that one, surely a € is a €. Urban myth??

Like you, I find that unlikely. One of the legal underpinnings of the Euro is free convertibility.

And whoever began the myth messed up fairly big-time. 'X' at the start of the serial number is the code for Germany (also 'W' in second series notes). Greece is 'Y'. Source: ECB.
Oddly enough, the three Euro notes I have in my possession, all acquired in Greece, have 'X'. Maybe Mrs Merkel brought them in in her handbag?

 

[Tony Cross]

Don't believe any national central banks issue € notes - all done from Frankfurt, only the coins have a national identity and as that's about 0.8% of the cash in €uro countries it's well-nigh irrelevant. "€ notes marked with an X" is an urban myth.

Partly true, X is the code for Germany, Greek notes are indicated by a Y. The code indicates the central bank commissioning the printing (though the notes may be actually printed elsewhere).

Source: The European Central Bank at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/html/index.en.html

 

[macd]

Partly true, X is the code for Germany.... The code indicates the central bank commissioning the printing (though the notes may be actually printed elsewhere).

That's true of series 1 notes (see my post above). Second series notes originating from Germany are 'X' or 'W', indicating they were printed in Munich or Leipzig respectively. 'R' is also German-printed. Source: same as yours.

Second series notes also have a second letter, which has no meaning. (It just allows more notes to be printed, handy in view of recent announcement on QE ) Most Eurozone countries print euro notes. 'J' and 'H' are printed by De La Rue in the UK.

Esoteric, or what?

 

[telford_mike]

Actually I am a wee bit concerned that Greece may run out of Diesel fuel because they will have no currency or credit to import more. Without diesel fuel those boats on shore in Aktio and elsewhere will stay on shore. The travel lifts will have a low priority for the country.

If the boats have to stay on shore than the boat yards still get the storage fee in full so as far as Greece is concerned, diesel for delivery trucks will be the priority.

Edit to point out that leaving Greece is not a concern if the boat is afloat. The concern for me is the possibility that my boat will get trapped ashore in a bankrupt Greece. The boat yards will not care because they will get their fee for storage. The boats afloat can leave or stay, it matters not a jot. But first you have to be launched.

Hope I explained my concern better this time.

Lots of diesel just to the north in Albania - I reckon your average resourceful Greek businessman could lay his hands on quite a bit if it came to it. Much more worried about the ATMs. Hardly anyone accepts credit cards anyway so no worries there!