Conachair
Guest
"http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn10189-solar-flares-will-disrupt-gps-in-2011.html"
Time to get the sextant out maybe..
Time to get the sextant out maybe..
GPS disruption
- Thread starter Conachair
- Start date
Channel Ribs
Well-Known Member
It seems the media cant get enough of forecasting doom and disaster for all us electronic navigators. Whos turn is it to debunk the report this time?
/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
sarabande
Well-Known Member
Come on, Malthouse; YOU give us the technical explanations as to why we will be able to rely 100% on GPS.
It should be very easy, as you seem so certain.
S.
PS. I agree with you that the "Media" love these sort of stories, but there are many highly-paid technical people who spend a lot of time undertaking very complex, science-based assessments of the extent, probabilities, and impacts associated with solar flares. Then there are lots of equally qualified people who think hard about how to mitigate the effects, and to make preparations for the absence of satellite comms.
I take it that your comments can be substantiated in a similar way ? /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
It should be very easy, as you seem so certain.
S.
PS. I agree with you that the "Media" love these sort of stories, but there are many highly-paid technical people who spend a lot of time undertaking very complex, science-based assessments of the extent, probabilities, and impacts associated with solar flares. Then there are lots of equally qualified people who think hard about how to mitigate the effects, and to make preparations for the absence of satellite comms.
I take it that your comments can be substantiated in a similar way ? /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
duncan
Well-Known Member
it's been argued long and hard already - as you know!
but then so have wash, anchors, chain and power giving way to sail.................
but then so have wash, anchors, chain and power giving way to sail.................
flaming
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
power giving way to sail.................
[/ QUOTE ]
It does?? Could have fooled me.......
power giving way to sail.................
[/ QUOTE ]
It does?? Could have fooled me.......
Channel Ribs
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Come on, Malthouse... rely 100% on GPS.... I take it that your comments can be substantiated...
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.
/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
Come on, Malthouse... rely 100% on GPS.... I take it that your comments can be substantiated...
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.
/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
sarabande
Well-Known Member
we're waiting.......
rickp
Well-Known Member
Lets first see your proof about the magnitude of the next solar flare cycle. We know its coming, but I don't believe that anyone has anything close to a trustworthy prediction about the magnitude. Without that, its all just hand wringing (repeated on an 10-14 year cycle).
Rick
Rick
Channel Ribs
Well-Known Member
I would never want to suggest to anyone that GPS should or can be relied on 100%.
IIRC from the last series of discussions re solar flares, the long and short is that there have been many periods of high activity since GPS became commercially popular (exact date is a matter of firey debate) and that sat-nav has not broken down en masse.
As for the scientific proof that GPS cannot possibly fail, I seem to have lost my notes. /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
GPS is a powerful convenience, but it does not keep the engines running nor the hull from leaking. Lots of systems do rely on it's data, but eyeballs, compass and updated charts are worth more.
IIRC from the last series of discussions re solar flares, the long and short is that there have been many periods of high activity since GPS became commercially popular (exact date is a matter of firey debate) and that sat-nav has not broken down en masse.
As for the scientific proof that GPS cannot possibly fail, I seem to have lost my notes. /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
GPS is a powerful convenience, but it does not keep the engines running nor the hull from leaking. Lots of systems do rely on it's data, but eyeballs, compass and updated charts are worth more.
ChrisE
Well-Known Member
I know that it has already been discussed, but for those that missed it. here's the original story.
In sum there is the potenitlal for GPS signals to be reduced by 90% for periods of up to a few hours during the predicted 2011/2 solar max. So guess all OK unless in fog or poor viz at the time otherwise better to sharpen skills using mark 1 eyeball.
In sum there is the potenitlal for GPS signals to be reduced by 90% for periods of up to a few hours during the predicted 2011/2 solar max. So guess all OK unless in fog or poor viz at the time otherwise better to sharpen skills using mark 1 eyeball.
Malcb
Well-Known Member
If you read the article it doesn't really commit one way or the other. It starts of with [ QUOTE ]
Navigation, power and communications systems that rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011,
[/ QUOTE ] Note it says will.
Then later it says [ QUOTE ]
it could cause widespread disruption to aircraft navigation and emergency location systems that rely heavily on satellite navigation data
[/ QUOTE ]
Note it now says could
usual thing, IMHO, of experts trying to cover their a***s
Navigation, power and communications systems that rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011,
[/ QUOTE ] Note it says will.
Then later it says [ QUOTE ]
it could cause widespread disruption to aircraft navigation and emergency location systems that rely heavily on satellite navigation data
[/ QUOTE ]
Note it now says could
usual thing, IMHO, of experts trying to cover their a***s
AlanPound
Well-Known Member
Luckily, Commercial Air Transport (the 'heavy metal') uses INS (Inertial Navigation, gyros and accelerometers) rather than GPS...
Channel Ribs
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Luckily, Commercial Air Transport (the 'heavy metal') uses INS (Inertial Navigation, gyros and accelerometers) rather than GPS...
[/ QUOTE ]
But what about those nice flightplan screens on the entertainment system, I bet those use GPS and it would be terrible if they stopped working. I for one, have no wish to watch old episodes of Sienfeld! /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
Luckily, Commercial Air Transport (the 'heavy metal') uses INS (Inertial Navigation, gyros and accelerometers) rather than GPS...
[/ QUOTE ]
But what about those nice flightplan screens on the entertainment system, I bet those use GPS and it would be terrible if they stopped working. I for one, have no wish to watch old episodes of Sienfeld! /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
pappaecho
Well-Known Member
These Solar Flares... are They Board of Trade approved?
thalassa
Well-Known Member
No, they will be recalled together with the Pains Wessex Flares. Everyone will dust the cobwebs from the sextant?
Birdseye
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with you that the "Media" love these sort of stories, but there are many highly-paid technical people who spend a lot of time undertaking very complex, science-based assessments of the extent, probabilities, and impacts associated with solar flares. Then there are lots of equally qualified people who think hard about how to mitigate the effects, and to make preparations for the absence of satellite comms.
I take it that your comments can be substantiated in a similar way ? /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
True. And there are lots of highly technically trained people with huge computers who firecast the weather. They tell us that there is a 50/50 chance of next summer being warmer or colder than average. Took a lot of money and skill to do that.
Truth is that much of this isnt hard science. And human nature means that the hardest words to say are " I havent got a clue". /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
I agree with you that the "Media" love these sort of stories, but there are many highly-paid technical people who spend a lot of time undertaking very complex, science-based assessments of the extent, probabilities, and impacts associated with solar flares. Then there are lots of equally qualified people who think hard about how to mitigate the effects, and to make preparations for the absence of satellite comms.
I take it that your comments can be substantiated in a similar way ? /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
True. And there are lots of highly technically trained people with huge computers who firecast the weather. They tell us that there is a 50/50 chance of next summer being warmer or colder than average. Took a lot of money and skill to do that.
Truth is that much of this isnt hard science. And human nature means that the hardest words to say are " I havent got a clue". /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif
brianrunyard
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
we're waiting.......
[/ QUOTE ]
No we're not!!
we're waiting.......
[/ QUOTE ]
No we're not!!
Ships_Cat
Well-Known Member
I'm not waiting either. Interesting on all these scaremongering things the ones who know least about the matter are the ones that get sucked in.
I will leave them to their sextant and handbearing compass - but perhaps they should be exra careful about not dropping them - whoopsy - and as some of the easily influenced seem to be thinking they will be quite ok with their trusty magnetic compasses solar flares change magnetic variation as well (see at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3223739.stm, for example - so panic, panic) which just goes to show how little they understand.
Personally I think they should all permanently give up sailing and leave it to the experts /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif - also would not then have to listen to their scare mongering drivel /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif.
John
I will leave them to their sextant and handbearing compass - but perhaps they should be exra careful about not dropping them - whoopsy - and as some of the easily influenced seem to be thinking they will be quite ok with their trusty magnetic compasses solar flares change magnetic variation as well (see at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3223739.stm, for example - so panic, panic) which just goes to show how little they understand.
Personally I think they should all permanently give up sailing and leave it to the experts /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif - also would not then have to listen to their scare mongering drivel /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif.
John
kcrane
Well-Known Member
It is OK for you to make light of it, but in 2011 I was planning to be in the middle of the Channel, with no log of my last position, with no paper charts on board, with a dubious ship's compass, no hand-held fallback, no Alamanac and no idea what the tides might be doing. If it turns out to be lo-vis, bad weather, no wind, VHF plays up and I'm low on fuel for both engines just when that solar flare strikes, I'm in trouble.
Ships_Cat
Well-Known Member
Of course you are correct /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif - and also very worrying and panic causing, for me anyway /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif, is that the flare in the link I gave that upset everyones' compasses, hundreds of satellites and could have brought the whole of the planet's electricity supply to a crash was in late 2003 and so halfway down from the last solar activity peak.
Means not only the peaks we have to worry but all of the at least 6 years around them and, of course, explains all those weird and extremely concerning unexplained GPS dropouts forumites have been reporting over the years. So am now busy sharpening my pencils in case - I understand that the 2B ones are the ones least susceptible to solar activity?
John
Means not only the peaks we have to worry but all of the at least 6 years around them and, of course, explains all those weird and extremely concerning unexplained GPS dropouts forumites have been reporting over the years. So am now busy sharpening my pencils in case - I understand that the 2B ones are the ones least susceptible to solar activity?
John
