GPS: death by solar flare ?

sarabande

sarabande

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The Institute of Navigation held a conference in Texas at the end of September.

Alessandro Cerruti presented a paper on the effect of solar flares on GPS satellites and receivers.

He found that when a solar flare occurs, all the receivers on the sunlit side of the Earth are affected.

Solar flares are accompanied by bursts of radio energy on the same frequencies as used by GPS satellites and receivers. Current designs are susceptible to degredation of signal to an extent to make them unuseable.

The present solar flare series is due to peak in 2011 from its cyclical low point in 2000, which is when GPS started to become readily available.

........
Ah well, it's back to leadline and DR on paper, then ?

Certainly some challenges for any regulatory bodies concerned with safety at sea and in the air. And what about all those lorries and security vans running around reporting back to HQ on their position at the roadside caff ?
 
I once heard a colleague from an island to the west of Wales describe a difficult new system as "having a steep learning kerb".

Some people might need a long time to be weaned off the electronics.

By the way, I'm all in fav-our of reg-ular sex-tant practice for sail-ors.
 
The Royal Institute of Navigation, USCG, NASA, The Nautical Institute et al have sought to promulgate this - and other related - concerns for years. Professional navs in the RN and RAF, while 'walking the walk and talking the talk', make d**n sure that they personally have the means to get themselves home, in event of an unplanned system outage. That's good for the career....

A long list of professional bodies involved in transportation has advised members to keep their 'conventional navigation skills' sharp and available to avoid being caught out *when* the systems they've come to depend on fail them, for whatever reasons. Like carrying paper charts, manual plotters, and the knowhow to make 'conventional nav' work.

Don't forget, a key instrument in bringing the ill-fated Apollo 13 capsule home again, when the systems failed, was a sextant - carried on board for that express purpose.

See here for some precis material:

Vulnerability

When those comprehensive professional caveats were aired on here, hordes of forumeers rushed to 'poo-poo' the advice from these learned - but essentially hard-headed and practical - bodies. Same thing, when teaching RYA Dazed Kipper groups. "Don't confuse me with the facts. My mind is made up!"

Me? I'm a confirmed Darwinist.


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The present solar flare series is due to peak in 2011 from its cyclical low point in 2000, which is when GPS started to become readily available.

/forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif Actually you will find that 2000 was the peak of Cycle 23 so a cyclical peak, not a low as you claim. In any event I am sure that you will find that it passed without the doom that you seem to think will be attached to for the next peak.

You also seem to be adrift by claiming 2000 as being when GPS started to become readily available - was widely available for many years before then as I am sure many other forumites will attest to from their own experience. You are probably a decade out in your claim /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif

John
 
[ QUOTE ]
He found that when a solar flare occurs, all the receivers on the sunlit side of the Earth are affected.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it looks like we will all need to sail at night then.

Tome has commented on this report in another post with a little more informed opinion and rather less of the impending doom. From memory I believe the problem is more likely to be felt closer to the equator so since you are a Disaster Response Manager you might want to plan your 2011 cruise to sail in high latitudes, at night. /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
 
Pretty typical really - "We plan for disasters so lets create some to plan for even though we don't know what we are talking about /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif".

John
 
Sorry, SC. I was a member of the RIN for nearly 10 years, before having a break from sailing. I merely summarised a significant new academic report for general information.

If you had delved into the paper and the cited research (which I did) and read even the executive summary, you would have seen that the quantitative OBSERVED data was only worked on during Sep 2005, even though the theoretical risks attached to solar flares were known about for many years previously.

My summary was not intended to be a scaremongering exercise, nor an indication that mitigatory planning was required NOW. There are lots of other nasty things heading your way which will have a greater impact on human beings, than failure of your car sat nav with its list of routes between pubs.

Have a butchers at this site flares

which may give you some more insight.

And yes, there IS a need to think ahead to prepare response plans for a wipeout of satellite comms. The fragility o f the network is, frankly, frightening. Organisations such as BT have contingency preparations to minimise damage to their service delivery to you, the customer; it would be irresponsible, even unethical, for companies who rely on a supply chain where sat comms play a critical part.

I've never heard of a ship's ostrich, till now /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
 
Re: GPS: Solar cycle low.

Yep, got the max and min dates wrong for 2000. Didn't check my references properly. Full apologies. Stand in corner.

My comment on the availability of GPS: Yes, systems were on the market for many years prior to 2000, but at a price and specification which took them out of reach of the popular pocket. 2000 is the time when they started to hit the high streeet and chandlers in numbers.

An analogy is HUDs. Have been available on military aircraft for many years, and now also on some vehicles, but Head Up Displays will be a big safety and selling feature on ordinary cars in a year or two.
 
I have no need to read the paper or the link to "flares" you gave. It is a subject I am quite familiar with (is why I picked up your mistake on the minimum).

You will find that the current predictions for cycle 24 are much the same as for the last. In fact some are predicting (including one of the most reliable methods) that it will be quieter than cycle 23.

In the end no reasonably accurate predictions can be made until into the cycle.

Insofar as damage to satellites is concerned there have been 5 peaks since the first was launched and 2 since GPS came into common use and no disasters

So, you see, I do not have my head in the sand and if you knew anything of the subject at all, rather than jumping on the mystical disaster bandwagon, you will know that there are always some who predict doom and gloom at the peaks of every cycle (and for any other event with hints of mysticism and of little understanding of the public) but it ain't happened yet.

John
 
With you all the way on this one Ships _Cat, as stated this happens every 11 yrs and we are all still here! I don't know where these folks have been but I was installing and using GPS in boats in Norway in the early 90's at an affordable price, admittedly much cheaper now with more bells and whistles.
I guess when you call yourself a Disaster Response Planner you have to justify your existence by trawling the ether for possible disasters, as if we didn't have enough doom and gloom merchants already.
 
Remember the millenium bug!! Every computer would be affected,planes would fall out of the sky,the planet in chaos!
What a con,some must have made millions!!
Harry. (possibly old Harry soon)
 
Re: GPS: Solar cycle low.

Yes, systems were on the market for many years prior to 2000, but at a price and specification which took them out of reach of the popular pocket. 2000 is the time when they started to hit the high streeet and chandlers in numbers.

Well, pretty misleading again. I have personally had GPS on my own boat since 1996 and they were certainly commonplace then and indeed the same manufacturer's equivalant model for same level in the market now is little cheaper than what I paid for the 1996 one (which, by the way is still operational and also did not bat an eye in the last solar maximum).

In early 1990's was relatively common to have them in pleasure boats and I can recall flying in private aircraft with them around 1991 and that was not considered any big deal. It is common knowledge that civilian units were commonly used by the forces in the first Gulf War (1990-91) as they were so readily available to fill the sudden increase in military demand.

John
 
Re: GPS: Solar cycle low.

I bought my first GPS in 1993. Was under £500 and have still got it. Bought it from a high street chandler.

Pretty irrelevant to the thread as the sun spot high at the end of this cycle is supposed to be a big one.

The say one of the biggest threats to satelites is space debris, and once a couple get hit then it all cascades until it is one big porridge up there.
 
See this graph.

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/solcycle.html

I was in the Atlantic during the last peak and was acutely aware of the reliability of the system.

The only outages I had, around then, were 2 in the Gib area. One was while passing 7 warships!

That year was one of the record years of yachts crossing the Atlantic. I do not know anyone that did it without GPS.

Also, the technology has got a lot, lot better since then. The receiver technology is way better. I would not worry too much.
 
Not this old chestnut again!

The effects of solar flares are limited to certain equitorial regions and likely to primarily degrade the ionospheric models used in the position solution. This will of course degrade the position, but not to the extent that your scaremongering would have us believe

We use much more accurate GPS receivers for survey work and our standard positioning service is sub-metre (we can go to 2cm if necessary). To guarantee this accuracy during the peaks of solar activity, we use dual frequency receivers which can correct for ionospheric anomalies. There are very few areas where this is required and we normally specify them as a precautionary measure rather than by necessity

Not quite sure the relevance of 10 years RIN membership on your argument, and why you make such ill-informed statements as GPS being only widely available from 2000?

Think Ships_Cat has your measure here
 
I thnk you will find that as GPS is a MILITARY system it has already been hardened against EMP and TREE to a far higher level than that put out by the flares.

Also this does not affect Differential transmissions so those with DGPS should be OK for their +- 0.5m accuracy

It will not affect my compass or my paper chart so why should I worry? I will still have Mk 1 eyeball, a chart, a compass, a log, a depth guage and a clock. What more do I need except a sextant for long distance travel.
 
Leaving aside the sunspot issue, surely it is wise for yachtsmen to be able to carry on their passage, safely, in the event of GPS failure. However, I question whether sextants are the best aid. They take a lot of skill and continued practice and sights are very limited in the UK's cloudy skies. I suggest that folks carry a simple RDF kit. I have an old Seafix (bought in a boat jumble five years ago) which is fine for emergencies. The nice thing about RDF is that with a bit of thought, most folks who are used to a GPS will muddle along without too much trouble whereas a sextant is a very different matter!
 
[ QUOTE ]
hordes of forumeers rushed to 'poo-poo'

[/ QUOTE ]

You see?

I suppose this is akin to the 'this glass is half full/half empty' discussion....... optimists v pessimists.

And what's a realist?


<span style="color:blue">A pessimist is an optimist with experience.

An optimist invented the jet; a pessimist, the ejection seat.

</span>
When I sail, I carry inter alia some dry clothes in a drybag, some crystallised ginger sweeties, some spare AAA cells for my headtorch and GPS, a chart, a mo-phone, a couple of IKEA pencils, and some chocy bickies.

I sailed recently with an aircraft accident investigator, and had my eyes opened by what's in his locker!!

What the h*** does a 'Disaster Planner' carry on board?


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