Got It Wrong

D

Das_Boot

Well-Known Member
Joined
26 Nov 2004
Messages
1,432
Location
UK north East
Visit site
My weather predictions for the weekend were hopelessly wrong. I have not seen the sun since late Thursday. Apparantly the weather was not too bad down south. I think I caught a glimpse of the moon at sometime and tipsely took a sight with the sextant but it did not last long enough to bring it down.
I have read and studied meteorology now for quite a while but find that the information I can aquire to make a prediction is too scant. Unless I have a supercomputer onboard with access to world wide weather stations am I just wasting my time.
Does anyone else have experience of trying to forcast and are they as useless as me.
 
damn!

hm, i must say i was rather relying on you, and my insistence upon nailing plywood over all the windows entirely becos of your forecast has made me appear rather foolish.

Seriously, yep, i have tried forecasting and no, i've never been quite that rubbish. BUT plenty of room for improvement - a big plus!!
 
Re: damn!

Sorry about the plywood. You must be the only person in the world who actualy listens to me. Next time use fiberglass and glue it down it comes off easier than plywood.

Can we have some of your predictions.
 
Re: damn!

My prediction is that tcm buys a catamaran after his cat charter hols in Dec.
 
Re: 10th april onwards

ah well, now, i am going to taking a motoryboat to the med, the earliest possible date being starting weekend 10th april and i need 3-4 calmish days to reach Gibraltar.

My forecast is that i will choose the wrong date to leave and will try and include lots of people in the forecasting and in the decision to leave, making it appear not my fault too much.

Weather wise, i think the week before will be ideal but the flippin boat isn't ready.
 
Re: damn!

The thing about predictions is they must have some ambiguity about the outcome.

Is it worth the bother of learning meteorology or even getting a weather forcast. Maybe if we stopped listening to the weather forcasts we would do a lot more sailing.
 
Re: damn!

good advice! you'll be right 75% of the time by assuming that today's weather will be the same tomorrow ...
 
Re: damn!

This is true seeing as when the forcasters dont have a clue they run the average.

The whole thing about accepting weather forcasts is it is based on trust. If you dont trust them you might as well not check and just put to sea. If they are only 50% accurate over 3 days (I dont know the firgure) then it is pointless even looking at it.

I am back to where I was I look at my forcast and anyone elses with a jaundiced eye.
 
The best way to predict the weather is to assume that the wind will always be blowing from where you want to go and that the minute you put the shorts on the cloud will cover the sun. Based on this theory, you will not be dissapointed.
 
You and the whole of the met office got this weekends weather wrong.

We were planning a trip Gosport to Weymouth. All last week for the South Coast they were forecasting a great Friday with weather deterorating from then on with rain and F6 E/NE winds developing.

We abandoned thoughts of Weymouth and just pootled around the Solent, what we got was a cold grey Friday with no wind, Saturday after a grey start perked up a bit but still no wind - got the shorts on as we passed the Needles, Sunday was grey and overcast but brightened up in the afternoon still with almost no wind. They were still forecasting unpleasant stuff for Monday, so we went home to do some jobs on the house.
Monday comes and turns out to be the best day of the weekend, like summer - sat in the garden with shorts and T shirt - we felt very cheated.

Im going back to my seaweed hanging on the garage door, its as accurate as anything else!
 
How does seaweed work?

Essential to hang it out of doors, or it doesn't work.

To produce an up to date weather forecast, walk to the door, open it and proceed outside to inspect the weed. If your head remains dry whilst doing this, it's going to rain within the next 24 hours. If your head gets wet, it's already raining.

Only works in the UK, so don't try it elsewhere.
 
Re: I\'d say about 70% of the time

I agree local conditions seem to play a much bigger part in the weather than the books would have you believe.
Last summer we were not 10 miles from the coast it was a beautifull sunny day and decided to take the dogs for a walk along the beach. The weather got worse and worse as we approached the coast by the time we got there it was howling with a faint drizzle we never even got out of the car.
 
Go (further) West, young man. On the Tamar we had glorious weather as predicted on Friday and many boats enjoying it. Saturday's rain didn't materialise and hence fewer boats took advantage of another lovely day. Little wind on Sunday and overcast, and fresh SEly and cooler on Monday, as forecast.
Many years ago while transitting the Caledonian Canal we took careful notice of the Scottish forecast. The forecast was usually divided between areas North and South of the Great Glen; so it seemed prudent to take note of it before deciding which bank to moor to for the night.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Other threads that may be of interest

cyberkryten
We finally bought a boat - Merry Fisher 895s2
2 3
Replies
41
Views
1K
Cathy*
C

Share this page

Top