Gawd, Force 10 again!

[Bristolfashion]

I'm sitting here in Ardfern feeling quite glad that we've finished our cruise - for the second time in less than a week the inshore forecast is warning of possible force 10 - I'm not sure I've even seen that before.

It's a bit squeaky when the wind is S. and we're blown on, but pretty comfy with a bit of West - particularly now I've sorted our creaky rope!

Stay safe everyone.

 

[AngusMcDoon]

The Met Office inshore waters forecast is about 2 levels higher than the ECMWF model for the same period which predicts a standard gale F8. Over-forecasting seems to be a Met Office thing.

 

[[2574]]

I'm sitting here in Ardfern feeling quite glad that we've finished our cruise - for the second time in less than a week the inshore forecast is warning of possible force 10 - I'm not sure I've even seen that before.

It's a bit squeaky when the wind is S. and we're blown on, but pretty comfy with a bit of West - particularly now I've sorted our creaky rope!

Stay safe everyone.

Gusty here on the Clyde, doubled up the lines and put the heater on! We've only a F8 here, maybe a F9 tomorrow. Only a WNW'ly bothers us here, other than that it can do what it likes!

 

[dslittle]

I'm sitting here in Ardfern feeling quite glad that we've finished our cruise - for the second time in less than a week the inshore forecast is warning of possible force 10 - I'm not sure I've even seen that before.

It's a bit squeaky when the wind is S. and we're blown on, but pretty comfy with a bit of West - particularly now I've sorted our creaky rope!

Which is why we moved South to France!!!

I’m currently sitting in the cockpit in a T Shirt watching the sun set. Too many summer gales on the West Coast made the decision easy…

 

[Bobc]

We've been on the beach in shorts this afternoon in glorious sunshine.

 

[[2574]]

Which is why we moved South to France!!!

I’m currently sitting in the cockpit in a T Shirt watching the sun set. Too many summer gales on the West Coast made the decision easy…

Ah but when the sun shines:

Small Isles & Skye astern

 

[Bristolfashion]

The Met Office inshore waters forecast is about 2 levels higher than the ECMWF model for the same period which predicts a standard gale F8. Over-forecasting seems to be a Met Office thing.

You're right - but F 10 makes a better sailor's tall tale!

 

[Bristolfashion]

Y

Ah but when the sun shines:

Small Isles & Skye astern

Yep, but keep it under your hat! We have had some absolutely glorious days here - don't want it getting full up.

 

[franksingleton]

The Met Office inshore waters forecast is about 2 levels higher than the ECMWF model for the same period which predicts a standard gale F8. Over-forecasting seems to be a Met Office thing.

Don’t forget that the ECMWF is computer output. The Met Office model might be similar. What they issue is the human interpretation. Models contain smoothing which inevitably underestimates the strongest winds. Effective resolution of any computer model is about 5 grid lengths. If ECMWF model is saying F8, assume, at least, F9.

 

[Bristolfashion]

Interestingly, on Shetland they seemed to reckon that the Met office always underestimated the wind speeds - I'd tend to agree!

 

[Bouba]

Dead calm in the South of France

 

[AngusMcDoon]

Don’t forget that the ECMWF is computer output. The Met Office model might be similar. What they issue is the human interpretation. Models contain smoothing which inevitably underestimates the strongest winds. Effective resolution of any computer model is about 5 grid lengths. If ECMWF model is saying F8, assume, at least, F9.

I also realize that the inshore waters and shipping forecasts cover a wide area and a long time period and their maximum value will be the worst over that area and that period. However, experience seems to suggest that they often over-forecast. I wonder whether there's an element of @rse covering going on and rather than forecasting what they deem the most likely they forecast for the 20% possible worst case.

 

[AngusMcDoon]

Interestingly, on Shetland they seemed to reckon that the Met office always underestimated the wind speeds - I'd tend to agree!

That's because no-one from head office in Exeter has ever been there and half the staff think that they are off Aberdeen. ?

 

[Sandy]

That's because no-one from head office in Exeter has ever been there and half the staff think that they are off Aberdeen. ?

You might be surprised, says man who lives near Exeter with a few friends who work or worked at the Met Office and sail.

 

[bikedaft]

I also realize that the inshore waters and shipping forecasts cover a wide area and a long time period and their maximum value will be the worst over that area and that period. However, experience seems to suggest that they often over-forecast. I wonder whether there's an element of @rse covering going on and rather than forecasting what they deem the most likely they forecast for the 20% possible worst case.

Agree, have not trusted the inshore waters forecast for a long time, they consistently over estimate.

 

[franksingleton]

I also realize that the inshore waters and shipping forecasts cover a wide area and a long time period and their maximum value will be the worst over that area and that period. However, experience seems to suggest that they often over-forecast. I wonder whether there's an element of @rse covering going on and rather than forecasting what they deem the most likely they forecast for the 20% possible worst case.

It is extremely difficult in a few words to give a forecast covering even a small area for 24 hours. One problem is gale warnings. A warning MUST be issued if winds MIGHT reach F8 in the next 12 hours. A warning can only be cancelled or allowed to lapse if the forecaster is certain that there are no gales occurring. A warning is a forecast, a cancellation is a statement of fact. . If there is a warning, it will have to be mentioned in the forecast. Think about it and you will realise that, inevitably, gale force winds will often be over-forecast. If he/she has the wordage available, they will try to give an idea where and when strong winds will occur. The shipping forecast has a total word limit of 330 words.. The Those are the rules as agreed by users, the MCA and the Met Office.

 

[dunedin]

I also realize that the inshore waters and shipping forecasts cover a wide area and a long time period and their maximum value will be the worst over that area and that period. However, experience seems to suggest that they often over-forecast. I wonder whether there's an element of @rse covering going on and rather than forecasting what they deem the most likely they forecast for the 20% possible worst case.

That has also tended to be my experience sailing in Scotland this year. I use PredictWind to compare various models. But the Met Office Inshore Waters is often both too generic and over pessimistic compared to reality. Perhaps nowadays the human adjustments are less accurate than the computer models (though they sometimes do vary a lot)

 

[SaltyC]

Y

Yep, but keep it under your hat! We have had some absolutely glorious days here - don't want it getting full up.

It confirms the horrible weather, wind, rain, midges. Head for France and leave us with quiet Anchorages, wonderful scenery and empty Anchorages

 

[Bristolfashion]

I have actually gone back to the met office forecast - it has the right degree of "round about this sort of wind" about it. All those rows of precise figures or colourful wind maps are lovely, but the soothing tones of Stornoway coastguard giving the inshore waters forecast, a peek at the clouds, regard for what the locals are doing or saying, wind direction, currents and protection from the land do it for me.

 

[nemein]

A warning can only be cancelled or allowed to lapse if the forecaster is certain that there are no gales occurring.