Gales heads-up for Weekend

simonjk

simonjk

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www.sailingweather.co.uk
Morning all,

Changes in the forecast for the weekend, a quick heads up.

Strong winds Saturday, risk of gales running through south Wales, Bristol Chane, English Channel areas as low crosses northern England. Channel looks especially at risk. Watch out if planning sailing in SW Saturday.

Threat shifts to east coast for Sunday, threat of gales there, lighter winds elsewhere.

First chart below shows MODEL PREDICTED gusts in knots for Saturday afternoon, then second chart are same for Sunday.

Sorry for briefness of message but hope that is useful.

Simon


http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/05/28/basis00/ukuk/boen/10052912_2800.gif[img]

[img]http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/05/28/basis00/ukuk/boen/10053012_2800.gif
 
simonjk said:
Morning all,

Changes in the forecast for the weekend, a quick heads up.

Strong winds Saturday, risk of gales running through south Wales, Bristol Chane, English Channel areas as low crosses northern England. Channel looks especially at risk. Watch out if planning sailing in SW Saturday.

Threat shifts to east coast for Sunday, threat of gales there, lighter winds elsewhere.

First chart below shows MODEL PREDICTED gusts in knots for Saturday afternoon, then second chart are same for Sunday.

Sorry for briefness of message but hope that is useful.

Simon


http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/05/28/basis00/ukuk/boen/10052912_2800.gif[img]

[img]http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/05/28/basis00/ukuk/boen/10053012_2800.gif
Click to expand...

Hi Simon

Trying to get my head around these charts, as the chart above is from GFS is this raw data or has it had the human hand on it. ie can I treat it with more confidence than XC weather

Thanks
 
Hi,

Yes, a tricky one I know.

This is the same data as XCWeather and so hasn't had a human eye on it until I analysed it above.

However, better to look at the chart and make your own predictions from it than use text extracted from model data such as that at XCWeather and MetCheck (although these are perfectly adequate sites).

The message I read from the charts is 'deep low, jet stream overhead, consistency in location between models, strong winds to the south, risk of gales, potential for some nasty conditions'.

Does that help?

Simon
 
Simon

Thanks for that . What is it about Bank Holidays that brings out the worst in the weather? We still remember you for the excellent personal forecast you gave us for our first Biscay crossing in 2006. Money well spent!
 
Thanks for the report Simon.

I've been checking the weekend forecast every day this week and it's changed from average wind to no wind at all and now to gales!
 
Oooh! This will be fun! We were going to sail to Yarmouth and have a BBQ on the beach, but I think we shall divert to the Folly and have a bit of a knees up instead. I'm glad Miley likes it when it's windy, although the last time we were out in steady 30kts the bowsprit decided to move a few inches to port... all fixed now though!!!
 
Just checked the forecasts for wind speeds for Sunday for Mull area.
Met Office Inshore: Force 4 or 5, 6 at times
BBC: 14 mph
Metcheck inshore: maximum about 1500 hours, 7 mph, gusts to 9 mph
So which one do I believe?
 
tobermoryphil said:
Just checked the forecasts for wind speeds for Sunday for Mull area.
Met Office Inshore: Force 4 or 5, 6 at times
BBC: 14 mph
Metcheck inshore: maximum about 1500 hours, 7 mph, gusts to 9 mph
So which one do I believe?
Click to expand...

No idea, we're the same. I think today could be a bit lively in the Irish sea so we might wait until PM tide tonight or tomorrow, but that will depend on whether it has whipped the seas state up more than a f4-5
 
Glad swmbo was ill now.........the others have headed west but we stayed at home.Only concern is my gazebo and its blowing a hooly here and pooring down.
 
Baffled by these maps, it was 13 kts. W at Macrahanish at 15 00 Sat.
The Scottish series at Tarbert has been suffering badly from a complete lack of wind, cancelling races, and the local forecast is for even lighter winds tomorrow.
Can some one explain how I should be interpreting this info. it seems to conflict with what is actually happening?
 
Sat/Sun forecast for Firth of Clyde is F4-5-6 - cancelled a weekend on the boat, and apparently there has been no wind whatsoever today,
Sun forecast is still 5 - 6?
 
Csail said:
Where is all this wind? I warned my mates doing a night sail last night and zero wind here!
Click to expand...

==============================

Have a look at "Magic Seaweed" They show a different story!

Confusing isn`t it?
 
I'm on the hard in the Lee Valley and it's ripped my leanto workshop to shreds, working below this morning, could not have a conversation. Boaty life is like that. Recently lost both engines on a cat due to contaminated fuel and didn't have a breath of wind to clear the local head. Doh!
 
Simon,

Absolutely spot on for the Solent on Saturday afternoon. Force 6(ish) with 30 knot gusts. Keep up the good work.
 
Weather for Channel Crossing, Needles to Cherbourg

Simon
If you spot this request in time, about 12 yachts are planning to leave Yarmouth Harbour on Wed 2cnd June at 0500hr, your synopsis of expected weather would be greatly appreciated
 
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