Gales for South - Saturday

[Chris_Robb]

Extract from Metcheck today - no one else is forecasting this. They were warning of a possible problem a week ago - so who is right??????

Added [Thursday August 28 2003 : 11:09:00 AM]

Remember the 'Bomb' we talked about earlier this week? Well after hanging around in the bay of Biscay for the past couple of days, it now looks as though a rather fast and furious development is likely to place as energy exchanges hands between the 'Bomb' and another area of low pressure which we are expecting to develop over France later on this evening.

Premium Members... WATCH THE RADAR TOMORROW! We are expecting the echos to go bananas tomorrow afternoon as the lows merge into one entity and move up the Channel then winds could well touch 40-50mph by Saturday morning.



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[burgundyben]

just looked on theyr.net, not forecasted there and I use that as a guide to whats going on...be interesting to see what happens....hope not....want to varnish on saturday and big winds wont help.

<hr width=100% size=1>Sod the Healey - I think I'll buy an E-Type.

 

[simonjk]

Hi Chris.

Looks like Metcheck are up to their old tricks again here.

The big problem with crying wolf is that when there is a real need to get a serious warning out to yatchsman, the forecvast is diismissed as "they were wrong last time so...." Unfortunately we all get tarnished with the same brush. I would love to know who is behind Metcheck putting out this sort of stuff.

Having said that it will be windy through the Channel from Friday. The winds increase in the west on Friday, probaly at a F6 with gusts to F7 offshore, especially in any turbulence zone south of the coast.

Overnight into Saturday the winds increasing throughout the Channel with a N-NNW F6 gust F7 everywhere.

Hints are that by mid Saturday morning the winds decrease int eh central and western Channel aeas at a NW F5, then F4-F5. The eastern Channel may be NW F6 until early afternoon.

Don't want to appear big headed, but the forecast above was written by a "real" forecaster, looking at various models. Then, using past experince the forecast is made. This is usually more acurate than looking purely at one model, i.e. Theyr and (I believe) Metcheck.

Stacks of calls on our WeatherLive (talk to a forecaster) service today from sailors trying to return from the north coasts of France (bringing the children back for school). Looks like a choppy trip back for them!

Cheers and hope that is useful?
Simon

Simon Keeling
Managing Director





<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[Chris_Robb]

I agree with you - when posting something as serious as this. Lets wait and see, I have been following them for some time - and their 1 week out has been pretty good. However as I look at the forecast for Thursday to saturday for Sussex there is no mention of rain wind or any thing - actually is pissing down here at the moment! so they got this totally wrong.

I email them quite often when there forecast are rubbish - they used to reply to me - but no more!!!!!

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[Twister_Ken]

My reading of the various public sources looks like it is a good weekend for a quick trip from the Solent to N France, but that getting back again on Sunday or Monday we'll be faced with winds with a lot of north in them, even if not too strong? Does that play with the professionals?

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.writeforweb.com/twister1>Let's Twist Again</A>

 

[Chris_Robb]

Not forecasted anywhere else!
Oh Varnishing - I have to get 3 more coats on before the winter. - where I have scrapped back damage areas, I find that with only 4 coats, it wont get though the winter - 8 coats will!!!! Dont think this weekend is for varnishing though

Chris

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[GeorgeP]

Hi Simon. This seems a bit different from the <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1190&links> BBC </A>.

Do they get their forecasts from the Met Office?

George

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[simonjk]

Hi George,

Yes, the Met Office supply the BBC forecast, but again be very careful as the five day forecast on the website are produced purely by compueter with little, if any, human quality control.

What ar the BBC going for?

Simon


<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[simonjk]

Hi Ken,

Looking at the last charts (issued 11am Thursday) I think it probably is a good day on saturday for a run from the Solent to N France. Getting back shouldn't be too bad (although I do stress I am NOT a sailor, just a forecaster forecasting for sailors). Winds on Sunday look NW F3-F4 with good visibility and isolated showers.

As always, for the latest you can talk to me or one of my forecasters on 09061 991 189 (£1.50 a minute, takes about 3 minutes).

Cheers,
Simon

Simon Keeling
Managing Director


<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[Twister_Ken]

Thx 4 that. Will take the phone number with me.

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.writeforweb.com/twister1>Let's Twist Again</A>

 

[Cornishman]

Hi, Simon

BBC South West forecaster on TV just now (at 1330) agrees very much with what you say about Saturday and Sunday. It's all about to start here with N-NNE F6 or 7 and lotsa rain tonight as a cold front sinks down from the North. First signs of front (increasing cloud) now upon us.

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[Chris_Robb]

Re: Metcheck update

This is the latest from metcheck!

When 2 become 1
Added [Thursday August 28 2003 : 4:08:00 PM]

At long last the computer models are all starting to agree as to what is expected to happen as two areas of low pressure get it together over Northern France and bring a few hours of quite nasty weather to the Southeastern corner of the UK.

Here is the menu for the next 24 hours :-

Tonight - Nothing out of the ordinary, low pressure over France starts to head off towards the Netherlands.
By 9am tomorrow heavy rain will start to push into the Southeast and winds will pick up across the Midlands (up to 40mph)
Towards the afternoon and more pulses of rain are expected to head into the SouthEast and as pressure continues to drop, winds will reach Gale force in the SouthEast.
Into tomorrow night and the winds really start to get going. 40-60mph possible for a time in the far Southeast. Check for any loose tiles, pots or plants tonight....



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[Twister_Ken]

Re: Metcheck update

Metcheck really does sound like tabloid forecasting.

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.writeforweb.com/twister1>Let's Twist Again</A>

 

[Chris_Robb]

Re: Metcheck update

good description! Just in case though - keep uptodate on a forecast befroe you sail to France! We are putting a marquee up for my sons 21st to morrow for Saturday - the last thing we need is 50 -60 mph winds - urrgh - do metcheck really do it in MPH........

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[qsiv]

Re: Metcheck update

But it is dangerous if you start to discount it because they consistently over state the wind. None of the models I have seen seem to think that the Western approaches (scillies,Ushant to Solent) will see more than 30, or at the outside 35 knots. A fresh breeze admittedly, but not the levels they talk about, and for the most part 25 knots will be about it.

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[qsiv]

What a difference 24 hours makes! MetCheck now looks wrong by about 100% - the models I've just looked at imply that 20 knots is about as much as the central and western channel will see, and that will quickly decrease on Saturday morning to less that 15 (probably only 10) knots.

Certainly here in Jersey the wind is vastly less than forecast (not to say it wont freshen some). If anyone ever wants a nice friendly way to check the weather in this part of the Channel then <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.jerseyinsight.com/one_column_1.asp?category=3&id=7871&id=7668#>this</A> gives a nice set of data, including wind trend. Do note that the sensors are in a bay that gives shelter from Easterly winds - the jersey Airport METARS will give you a clear wind in an exposed location - but it is not so user friendly!

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[simonjk]

Hi qsiv,

Quite a good one this, especially for those interested in upper air forecasting.

The reason the winds have/will fail to materialise to quite the extent predicted is that the surface low pressure system is moving away quite quickly to the east, courtesy of the jet stream (over noirthern France).

The forecast was for an upper trough (basically a cold pool of air) to move south through the UK, behind the advancing cold front and then this trough would meet the surface low pressure over northern France. The result would be a deepening depression, strong winds, heavy rain etc...

The heavy rain is forming this morning in the SE due to cold air ahead of the trough, but it now looks like the trough will be remaining to the north, over the UK, and the surface low retreats safely(ish) into Europe.

There you go, proof that weathermen really do where anoraks!!! )

Cheers,
Simon


<hr width=100% size=1>Simon Keeling
Managing Director
Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com

 

[Twister_Ken]

And in the end it turned out to be light (read occ non-existent) from anywhere between west and north-east. Decided not to x-channel as the thought of 12 hours listening to a diesel engine was not appealing.

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.writeforweb.com/twister1>Let's Twist Again</A>

 

[Chris_Robb]

Yes - don't think there was much over 10 knots ever! Metchecks excuse (from the boss) was that all the models got it totally wrong, with the low moving away much quicker than anticipated. I emailed them suggesting that those types of headlines were slighly irresponsible. However they have in the past been responsible for forecasting some major upsets (last Octobers storm) well before anyone else did - and lets not forget the August weather which they accurately predicted at least 2 weeks before anyone else!!!

Hope you had a good weekend.

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