Diesel price trend - fill up now or later?

[Molteni]

Many of us have large fuel tanks, possibly depleted after a summer's cruising. In my case a fill up will be well over 130 litres. In the past few weeks, we've seen car fuel diesel drop 25p a litre with some suggesting this is a downward trend.

The question is, should we refuel now or delay a few months?

 

[Refueler]

I deal with oil shipped round the world - with all the price changes and I cannot answer your question.

No doubt some 'expert' on here will answer. But believe me, whatever they say at best is based on speculation - the oil trade is highly sensitive to not only 'conflicts as we have now' but also political situations.
Traders who I deal with every day are searching out alternatives to protect supply flows but its not as easy as you think. Refinerys . Markets are geared to specific grades / specifications. Refinerys particularly cannot swap Crude grades easily.

So far - we are seeing a reduction worldwide generally on Product (Gasoline / Diesel as example) - but the fundamental factor is Crude Price. Which way it will move is anybodys guess.
You have to take into account - Crude sales are not only Spot - but also in the Futures arena.

 

[bignick]

130 litres isn’t much. Even if it did drop by 25 ppl you’re only talking £32.50.
Could you cause issues with condensation in your tanks if you leave them empty all winter?

 

[Refueler]

130 litres isn’t much. Even if it did drop by 25 ppl you’re only talking £32.50.
Could you cause issues with condensation in your tanks if you leave them empty all winter?

According to some on here - condensation never happens in tanks .....

 

[Talulah]

I suspect we are about to see a hike in prices generally. The slide in the pound following the mini budget will put up the price of petrol/diesel. That in turn will create another increase in prices and inflation.
Consequently another increase in the base rate. That will make government borrowing even more expensive. I may be crossing the line on current affairs so will stop.

 

[Iliade]

If you don't have to borrow the money I would definitely fill up now.

Maybe then add a locking cap as someone in our yard had one of their tanks emptied while the boat, a 38'er or so, was laid up. Could easily have caused the loss of the mast at least had their anchor not held and the boat been swept under the bridge, as has happened before.

As the boat is accessible at all states of tide and despite the presence of security cameras, I'm considering blanking off the end of the filler and the tube after disconnecting them from each other...
It may at least stop me putting water in to the diesel tank!

 

[Momac]

Too many people have predicted future economic trends that have proven to be completely wrong.
I tend to the view that diesel has greater bio content than in the past and therefore best, where possible, to consume it soon after purchase rather than store it .

 

[superheat6k]

According to some on here - condensation never happens in tanks .....

Not to any significant extent.

Most tanks have a small breather - say 6 - 8mm diameter and say 1 - 3m long. For power boats at least generally the tanks are inside the boat's interior space, so little if any direct contact with cold outer surfaces, so whereas the empty section of the tank will cool to match its surroundings, the amount of condensation is severely limited to the air volume within the tank, and nothing is causing a mass air flow and hence air change within the tank through the breather inn virtually nil, so in practice yes, in very cold weather, the air inside the tank will deposit some of its naturally held moisture as the air within drops below its dew point, but that's it. The moisture is not miraculously replaced by a blast of moist air from outside, the air as it rises in temperature during the day (probably not more than a few degrees) will simply sit there at a slightly reduced Relative Humidity, until the air cools again when it may or may not reach the dew point.

If this principle were not true then the insulation layers on virtually every chilled water pipe on every building would require replacing every 2-3 years as for most of these systems the vapour seal provided by the insulation applicator is lost within 1 year of the systems installation, yet the supposed cold wall condensation does not occur on such systems even with several breaches of the vapour seals. When a moisture seal is broken and with pipes continuously cold (6-8oC) and with high relative humidity of the far warmer external air adjacent to the seal breach, the moisture condensing due to the breach only ever affects a few inches around the breach site - OK this is not an identical 'system' but there is in reality no way the external moisture laden air will travel meters along a very narrow vent tube.

So, and this is of course my opinion, the 'theory' water in fuel tanks is due mostly to condensation makes most boaters ignore the simple fact that the vast majority of water found in fuel tanks arrives primarily from two sources: - 1 You buy it at the pump; 2 It enters around a poorly sealed deck filler cap.

The first of these is resolved by polishing after each refill, the second by a tin of waterproof grease aboard, used to keep the threads of the deck fillers thoroughly greased and hence sealed (plus non seized). Oh yes and some tissue to wipe off excess grease fingers when refuelling or dipping tank levels.

I have never wedge my tanks for Winter, and I do keep my threads well greased. I like to polish my fuel, and rarely pull anything nasty out (got to make the rig for the new boat as I left any last one on the last boat). But I have never had a water / fuel bug fuel failure.

 

[Refueler]

I said someone would say condensation is not a problem ......

 

[oldgit]

Dilemma on our fuel berth, much debate !
Price after the last top up in club tank was £1.50 per litre. 60/40 split .
A complicated calculation involving the old and new prices averaged out over what each litre in the tank cost on purchase.
Quantity of fuel was purchased at the top of the market, oil supplier said take it or leave it , we either bought, or insuffient fuel in the tank to allow draw off.
Those who never go anywhere, thought we should have waited, those who actually boat, just filled up.
The "waiters" then announced that £1.50 was far too much and they would wait for the diesel price to drop and the reduced price reflected on our fuel pontoon.
It took ages for the small amount of fuel to be used due the numbers now buying being reduced.
The market diesel price did drop , so did the price at our pump, its now £1.40.

Water in the tanks , never had the problem ,however boat gets some sort of use throughout the year.

 

[ean_p]

- but the fundamental factor is Crude Price. .

Crude at currently $85 -$90 is relatively cheap in the scheme of things. It went over $100 early in the 20's and maxed out at $140+ in 2014.........pump prices never went anywhere near what they have been recently.....so who in the line is gouging ....?

 

[Momac]

The market diesel price did drop , so did the price at our pump, its now £1.40.

I guess those who go nowhere are still waiting.

 

[dankilb]

Crude at currently $85 -$90 is relatively cheap in the scheme of things. It went over $100 early in the 20's and maxed out at $140+ in 2014.........pump prices never went anywhere near what they have been recently.....so who in the line is gouging ....?

Doesn’t help that those dollars now cost us twice as much as last time I was in the USA (okay, not recently, but not ancient memory!)

 

[ean_p]

Doesn’t help that those dollars now cost us twice as much as last time I was in the USA (okay, not recently, but not ancient memory!)

Very true...!

 

[wingcommander]

Don't forget about the additional problems associated with long term storage of modern diesel containing fatty acid methl esters.......waits for the incoming!!!

 

[Momac]

Crude at currently $85 -$90 is relatively cheap in the scheme of things. It went over $100 early in the 20's and maxed out at $140+ in 2014.........pump prices never went anywhere near what they have been recently.....so who in the line is gouging ....?

I feel sure businesses are clawing back losses from the pandemic
The retailers who were always cheapest near me for petrol (eg a particular supermarket) are no longer so.

But at least the panic seems to be calming and crude oil/gas and petrol/diesel seem to be reducing steadily which should help reduce the panic fuelled inflation predictions.

Don't forget about the additional problems associated with long term storage of modern diesel containing fatty acid methl esters.......waits for the incoming!!!

See my post #7 which didn't seem to have any impact.

 

[AngusMcDoon]

Crude at currently $85 -$90 is relatively cheap in the scheme of things. It went over $100 early in the 20's and maxed out at $140+ in 2014.........pump prices never went anywhere near what they have been recently.....so who in the line is gouging ....?

Low £ to $ exchange rate.
High demand.
Lack of refinery capacity, especially diesel.
Added cost of FAME and E10.
Increased distribution costs because of shortage of truck drivers.
And price gouging/post pandemic profit recovery.

 

[superheat6k]

I said someone would say condensation is not a problem ......

You seem to have trouble reading your own words ! ...

"According to some on here - condensation never happens in tanks ...." was the actual wording of your post.

My response simply clarified the situation in the real world of boating and relatively small quantities - not trade or ship volumes in large tanks.

 

[oldgit]

Doesn’t help that those dollars now cost us twice as much as last time I was in the USA (okay, not recently, but not ancient memory!)

Feel sure can remember being in the the US during 1980s when the sterling to dollar ratio was not that far off $2 dollars to the £ pound ? and going back not that many years later when it was possibly a lot closer to one $ to one £ ?
Wandering round a supermarket buying food was a sobering experience

 

[ChromeDome]

If you don't have to borrow the money I would definitely fill up now.

Maybe then add a locking cap as someone in our yard had one of their tanks emptied while the boat, a 38'er or so, was laid up. Could easily have caused the loss of the mast at least had their anchor not held and the boat been swept under the bridge, as has happened before.

As the boat is accessible at all states of tide and despite the presence of security cameras, I'm considering blanking off the end of the filler and the tube after disconnecting them from each other...
It may at least stop me putting water in to the diesel tank!

Swap filler caps, the thieves will then run off with water or holding tank content ?