danger, statistically

[TomR]

The bug has suddenly come upon me, like a religious conversion. I read cruising logs with butterflies of excitement in the stomach. I have NEVER sailed in my life and am not a good swimmer, but have signed up for RYA theory and practice courses and cannot wait.

I think of myself as averse to danger, but I know deep down that the butterflies I am feeling are not caused by the excitement of visiting nice ports etc. (which one can do on "normal" holiday). I think its about ..... crossing oceans!! Don't ask me what this is all about. Maybe its a mid-life crisis.

I'd like to know how mad I am becoming. What is the danger of (a) coastal cruising (b) ocean crossings. Not anecdotal, but statistical. What are the chances of not returning safely from a cruise to the med? What are the chances of not returning safely from an ocean crossing?



<hr width=100% size=1><P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by TomR on 05/08/2004 14:43 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[BigART]

Very difficult questions to answer in a straightforward fashion. What is the vessel (construction, material), how much training and experience do the skipper and crew have. What risks are the skipper and crew prepared to take in sailing out of season passages.

On the positive side, many have successfully made long passages in seemingly unsuitable craft with little experience. Statitically speaking, the chances of not returning safely home (Med or Ocean) would appear to be very small. Coming to grief seems to be unusual. Keep reading the magazines and read the stories - most are of wonderful experiences. You can then make your own choices of the above factors. Having read "Heavy Weather Sailing" by Adlard Coles, our reading of the risk factors is a solo sailor in a wooden vessel with a deadline to reach setting off into bad weather seems to be at high risk.

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[ubuysa]

What are the chances of getting hit by a car crossing the road?

What are the chances of you falling down the stairs and breaking your neck?

What are the chances the next flight you take crashing?

What are the chances of you dying in a car accident?

Life is too short to worry about "what if's", anyway I think what's really worrying you is the fear of the unknown. Once you've picked up the basics on your RYA courses it will become much less frightening and will pretty quickly start to be fun....honest!

Tony C.

<hr width=100% size=1>There are 10 kinds of people, those who understand binary and those who don't.

 

[Talbot]

<blockquote><font size=1>In reply to:</font><hr>

What are the chances of not returning safely from a cruise to the med? What are the chances of not returning safely from an ocean crossing?


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The chances are exceedingly high, once bitten with the cruising bug, the urge to go further and further afield is almost irresistable, thus return to starting point becomes not an option /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

If this is a madness, dont worry, your are not alone!

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[TomR]

Touche Talbot! I reckon that's what will happen to me: I'll go and not want to return while there are places I haven't yet visited.

My danger question relates to my conversations with a friend who flies light aircraft. Well, flew. She gave up because so many of her flying pals well, died.

I just wondered whether world-wide cruising was the same. Whether the common wisdom of enthusiasts was similar: "oh yes, dying is quite common". I'm glad to hear that this doesn't seem to be the case.

I can't wait. I'm not even very practical. I'm the last person this should be happening to. Is it love, I wonder?



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[snowleopard]

ok, a few stats-

taking the ARC which has been going for many years, to date one person has died out of the approx 20,000 people who have made the crossing, that's one death per 50 million sea miles travelled!

i believe there have been only 2 fatalities in the singlehanded transatlantic race since it started, and that's far more hazardous than routine voyaging.

would you consider any of these activities: motor cycling, horse riding, skydiving, rock climbing? they are all many times more risky than cruising!

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[mikewilkes]

Try applying for some life assurance.
They will load your premium if you jump out of airplanes, stick your body down holes in the ground, do the fly on the wall trick but will they load you for sailing.
Possibly if you were doing the single handed round the world fastest jobbie but for normal sailing.
Bearing in mind most liveaboards dont go that far or that often - especially when the bar is open!!!

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[charles_reed]

There are

old pilots and bold pilots but no old, bold pilots.

In fact, as already pointed out, the people with the figures are the actuaries - it appears cruising sailing is slightly less dangerous than the the life of a UK salesman doing about 30K on the road pa.

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[Sunnyseeker]

Its the getting from the bar back to the boat in the dinghy thats really dangerous.
So if you buy a cat and park it on the beach you'll be fine.

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[Sunnyseeker]

Seriously our biggest risk (we felt) was the chance of a serious illness or injury on board when over a week from help. A paramedic who helped us prepare said if something nasty happens you'll die where as, if there was a hopsital within 24hours youd live. We are used to emmediate medical aid ashore so those are the issues that change. So dont get sick and you'll be fine. Statistically almost Zero!

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[chrisc]

biggest danger on long distance passages is dying of boredom.

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[AndrewB]

Don\'t be too gung-ho.

Sailing remains a risk sport. The risk to life is low, but I've known personally four people who have been lost from yachts. Before the advent of affordable long-range position-finding and communications devices in the late 1980's, the risk to ocean sailors was much higher. I respect Snowleopard's analysis, but the ARC route is not wholely typical of ocean passages, and participants are particularly closely monitored.

Beyond the risk to life, serious accidents do occasionally occur, and of course loss or major damage to yachts is not infrequent.

No idea what statistically this all adds up to, but my guess is sailing is still a good deal riskier per mile than driving along a motorway.

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[TomR]

Re: Don\'t be too gung-ho.

Thanks Andrew, very sobering.

From what I've read my impression would be that being single-handed probably adds a large proportion of danger (no-one to turn the boat around and get you - boat sailing off too fast for you to swim to). Do think this is the number one issue?

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[snowleopard]

Re: Don\'t be too gung-ho.

singlehanding is inherently more dangerous than sailing with crew. the extra risks involve accidents where you need someone to rescue you (MOB etc) and illness. also there is a small additional risk from lack of lookout though this is mainly within 24 hours of shore.

that said, there are lots of singlehanders and pretty few accidents.

as i say to swmbo when she gets nervous "who wants to live for ever?"

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[pragmatist]

Keep plugging how dangerous it all is. If too many people realise that by comparison with the M25 it's a piece of cake - and you have a good time too - the seas will be full. Every time someone suggests we're intrepid I breathe a sigh of relief.

And yes, it probably is love - sadly all of us who infest this forum have the same bug - some get to leave the forum for significant sailing periods - the rest of us are just here pining and dreaming.

Dream on !

<hr width=100% size=1>a pragmatist is an optimist with a boat in the UK

 

[jerryat]

Hi Chris!

Wow!!! Definitely don't agree, assuming you weren't joking. For me, being way out on the ocean is utterly fantastic whether on my own, or with a friend, and certainly NEVER boring! Mind you, I did expect it to be like that before I made my first pond crossing, and was extremely surprised when the time shot by so quickly.

Probably just me juddering closer to the formal retirement age I suppose, and doing things more slowly, but I want to head off that way again as soon as possible (next Spring Lord willing) and I can't wait!

Cheers

Jerry

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[giraffehappy]

A lot of accidents happen after the visit to the bar, sunnyseeker is right. Avoid too much booze and bad weather, and you'll be right.
PS. I am a newby having just bought a warrior 40 to start circumnavigating spring 05 with 2 small kids, and my big fear is losing someone overboard on an ocean passage.

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