Currency Matters - NB

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CharlesM

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Hello All

Since I am in the process of buying a boat in US$ and a flat in ZAR I have been watching the fluctuations recently.

2 Questions...

1) Why was the pound dropping consistently against almost all currencies last week?

2) Is there a web site where I can read about what influences the currencies market, and any daily analysis would also be nice.

Thanks
Charles
 
Detailed article on recent/current fluctuations at FT http://news.ft.com/cms/s/78a8fd60-5fd7-11d9-bd2f-00000e2511c8.html.

Currencies will continue to be uncertain unless there are changes to US economy. US has world's largest budget deficit and for most of the recent period has been allowing the dollar to devalue against other currencies, effectively exporting their deficit so that the rest of the world pays for it.

Regular FT updates at http://news.ft.com/markets/currencies/.

Anyone lend me tenner?
 
1)during the last few days, (I will be burnt for saying this) the gbp closely followed the eur: the eur dropped against usd, so did the pound
a drop against the usd usually means a drop against currencies in the economic area under usd influence

imho, the drop of eur or gbp against usd is due to the rapid appreciation they had in the last few months, people who bought euros at 1.20-1.25 in sep-oct-nov are selling them now at 1.34-1.32 to take in their profits

2)imho you can read about what **has influenced*** the currency market in the past, and as it is said past behaviour is no guarantee of future behaviour; currency, stock or bond markets are so quick that any information is immediately absorbed by a rise or fall in prices, when the news is published it is already history

analysis and forecasts of currencies/bonds prices reported in newspapers/magazines is basically useless in a time horizon of a few days/weeks /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif
 
The pounds decline against the $ for the last two weeks is painful, we have a whole stack of big $ bills to pay this week and we couldn't put it off any longer so we bit the bullet this morning. Should have settled up before Christmas!

We buy a lot of $ for our business and we keep an eye on the market with:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

I am assuming you will not be changing money through a bank where the rates are generally rubbish. I can recomend Travellex commercial or HIFX who offer much better rates for larger transfers ad who will quote you a fixed rate on the phone. Others here will have other and maybe better options.
 
You may be suffering now - but when you are paid in $us it is quite pleasent to see a turn around. The fed has been threatening to put up interest rates again. That may help us a bit as well.
 
Suggestion - buy your dollars privately by finding someone long on the

Eek if you need dollars best buy em quick. Before christmas would have been better.

If you need a chunk of dollars I have plenty of investment bankers who are sitting on them becuase they are paid their bonuses in dollars. They would sell to you for sterling using the same day mid market price. This would save you paying a bank's offer-to-bid spread and commission (and likewise would save the guy selling the dollars the same amount, ie the benefit is split 50/50) If you need say 40 grand upwards this is worth doing. Lemme know when you're ready to trade.
 
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