bbc weather 5 day forecast

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tyce

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does every one else find the bbc site 5 day forecast unbelievably innacurate (the one when you put in your postcode).
for example today its forecasting 15mph but on the same site the inshore waters says this for my area-

Colwyn Bay to the Mull of Galloway including Isle of Man

Issued by the Met Office at 0500 UTC on Tuesday 23 August 2005.

24 hour forecast:
Wind: southwest 4 or 5 increasing 6 to gale 8, perhaps severe gale 9 later.
Weather: occasional rain.
Visibility: good becoming moderate or poor.
Sea State: slight becoming moderate or rough. Issued by the Met Office at 0500 UTC on Tuesday 23 August 2005.

Outlook for the following 24 hours:
Wind: west or southwest 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first.
Weather: rain then showers.
Visibility: moderate or poor becoming good.
Sea State: moderate or rough, occasionally slight later.

i think there forecasts are dangerous and if i did not check the shipping forecast would have caught me out a number of times, they always seriously underestimate wind strengths.

of course there is no direct contact to complain to on the site.
 
Its the same down here, if you want a wind speed forecast you have to go to a marine weather site, and in that respect I find a lot of the other weather sites no better. Southampton is listed as NW 8mph today, SW 13mph tomorrow, inshore forecast says F4-5, increasing 6-7 later.

I found that an email to a forecaster on the local BBC TV station on the subject of weather forecasts earlier in the year got a reply (from them) with a promise to forward any comments or complaints to the main weather centre within 24 hours.

Maybe its time for another letter. I know the Powers That Be in the BBC weather centre don't seem to think that wind speed is important, it's only by us writing in that they can be convinced otherwise.
 
I find that almost all the forecasts we get (both National which are completely useless and local which are marginally better) seem to bear little resemblance to that which I actually experience.

I find that it is better to go onto the Met Off website and use their pressure chart forecast and interpret it myself - calibrating against what I actually experience over a period of time - I have become "reasonably" good at it and in general better that the tele!

I find this stange because all of these organisations and sources of weather forecasting must be using the same basic raw data and it is only their interpretation which seems to differ wildly - from each other and also from reality!

Magic
 
Couldn't agree more (see my posting last week). How can they change SO much in such a short space of time. If we are going away for a weekend I always print off the forecast from Tuesday so SWMBO knows I was not having her on.
 
But you're trying to compare apples with bananas.
The Inshore forecast is "up to 12 miles offshore" so what's forecast tries to be representative of that area, which from Colwyn Bay to Mull of Galloway times 12 miles is a large area. The BBC's postcode forecast is for somewhere on land, probably based on another fairly large area which extends a long way inland but no distance at all out to sea.
It's the horses for courses problem I fear.

Derek
 
I'm told that the 5 day forecasts are effectively computer generated, without any human "interpretation". They are also general, and supposed to indicate what are expected to be the main features of the day, rather than covering every eventuality. As UK weather often gives us the opportunity to get up close and personal with all four seasons in one day, it's no wonder that it's a bit vague and/or inaccurate.

I find Metcheck and Theyr useful, and Windguru usually seems to be reasonably on the case. I never believe any predictions beyond about 36 hours unless the weather is very settled!
 
The local forecast for last Sunday was for clouds and occasional rain. We spent the day sunbathing and swimming at the beach! (Which was surprisingly quiet, obviously a lot of people believe the forecasts!)
 
For the last two days the weather presenters on the TV have been warning of strong winds and gales in most parts on Wednesday, over the land, and the 5 day (land) forecast for Southampton shows a F4. I'll bet the wind is closer to the F6-7 on the day.

In my experience the wind strength at my house, which is the post code I entered, is rarely more than a force weaker than at the boat in Chichester harbour. In a south westerly these winds usually correspond to the inshore waters forecast for that morning.

I think they have a formula which says something like "reduce offshore wind speeds by two forces to get the land wind speeds." Whatever they're doing, it's miles out and always has been.
 
Totally agree about the bbc 5 day forecast. I prefer to use the pressure charts myself and consider they are more practical for planning on when to cut the lawn as well as, 'can I make it over to the IoM next weekend?'!

Of course one can always consult the bit of sea weed hung by the back door...or even stick one's head out the window! /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif
 
I agree, the BBC 5 day is a waste of space. On Friday the BBC forecast for Portsmouth on Monday was sun, reasonably warm and light winds, whilst all other forecasts that I looked at said rain. Sure enough it pi**ed down for most of yesterday and was blowing a F5! Got a bit wet but a great sail
 
[ QUOTE ]
But you're trying to compare apples with bananas.
The Inshore forecast is "up to 12 miles offshore" so what's forecast tries to be representative of that area, which from Colwyn Bay to Mull of Galloway times 12 miles is a large area. The BBC's postcode forecast is for somewhere on land, probably based on another fairly large area which extends a long way inland but no distance at all out to sea.
It's the horses for courses problem I fear.

Derek

[/ QUOTE ] But in the Lakes we are comparing bananas with errm, bananas. Todays forecast at 9.00am was for sunshine, it has now changed to predict cloud (for today) and in fact it is raining. Yesterday it predicted sunny intervals and showers. It was glorious all day.
No wonder visitor numbers have reportedly been down in the Lake District as all our potential visitors listen to the BBC weather. We've hardly had a drop of rain since early June!
Much more dependable is the Met office prepared forecast.
 
That five day forecast is a standing joke in our office. It used to be the fourth and fifth days that were unreliable, but it's been getting the current day wrong for a while.

The Met Office 5 days is generally slightly better. I'm not sure why the Beeb feel the need to make it up as they go along rather than using the Met Office forecasts.
 
The BBC gets it weather info direct from ....

the Met Office and the Met Office issues the shipping forecasts.

It's no use complaining to the BBC, all they are doing is punting (for a massive fee) the info that they get from the Met Office ...

For a laugh you might try to complain to the Met Office direct - You won't get any reply in spite of the opening lines of their complaints site (probably because they are overwhelmed with complaints)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/contact/contact.html

For better UK forecasts use the various European and more particularly the US sites in Frank Singleton's website:

http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/

K
 
I agree that the BBC internet forecasts are generally a waste of time, but, the Beeb are capable of putting a decent 5 day forecast together when they want to.

BBC radio Devon has a pretty detailed (including windspeed/direction), and on the whole realistic (if that's the word) 5 day forecast after the 8.30 news in the morning, and the BBC certainly used to do a detailed 5 day forecast on the TV on a programme around midday on Sunday which I think was called "countryfile" or the like. Don't know if they still run it or not.
 
I have recently been using accuweather for Conwy and have found it to be fairly good, given the usual vagaries of our climate.. It is certainly closer than the BBC from 48 hours away.. Plus the hourly forecasts get quite close as well.
 
Localised Flooding

In the Lakes if it's raining where you are it's always worth trying the other end. It's only an hour or so to anywhere.
The times we go out and get sunshine or rain and find when we get back that the neighbours have had the opposite.
 
Re: Localised Flooding

to quote CPEDW - "But you're trying to compare apples with bananas.
The Inshore forecast is "up to 12 miles offshore" so what's forecast tries to be representative of that area, which from Colwyn Bay to Mull of Galloway times 12 miles is a large area. The BBC's postcode forecast is for somewhere on land, probably based on another fairly large area which extends a long way inland but no distance at all out to sea.
It's the horses for courses problem I fear.

Derek

yes but my point is, its also blowing a hoolie here at barrow in furness, which is the post code i put in the site, so the shipping and inshore forecasts are spot on and the bbc guess of 15mph absolute tosh
 
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