1114C
Well-Known Member
i agree - it is laughably bad and also rarely does it ever on a mid week predict bad weather for the weekend - always ridiculously optimistic
give me metcheck any day
give me metcheck any day
bbc weather 5 day forecast
- Thread starter tyce
- Start date
Peppermint
Well-Known Member
Re: It\'s just a forecast, a kind of educated guess,
and as such is just one of the tools that you use to decide on what the weather might do.
I don't see that the accuracy or otherwise of general forecasts is particularly dangerous. Well not unless you have blind faith. The worst that seems to happen is a bit of discomfort, unexpected voyage times or a change in planned destination.
I'd say that the popular met sources are so busy covering their arses that a devoted listener is more in danger of canceling a cruise in view of the threatened tempest and missing some fine sailing weather.
If you learn to read a synoptic chart, trust your barometer and record it's changes and just be watchful, you'll be surprised how often you get it right. Oh and sea temp relative to air temp is useful to.
and as such is just one of the tools that you use to decide on what the weather might do.
I don't see that the accuracy or otherwise of general forecasts is particularly dangerous. Well not unless you have blind faith. The worst that seems to happen is a bit of discomfort, unexpected voyage times or a change in planned destination.
I'd say that the popular met sources are so busy covering their arses that a devoted listener is more in danger of canceling a cruise in view of the threatened tempest and missing some fine sailing weather.
If you learn to read a synoptic chart, trust your barometer and record it's changes and just be watchful, you'll be surprised how often you get it right. Oh and sea temp relative to air temp is useful to.
Talbot
Well-Known Member
I look at XC weather, and the two forecasts from windguru. I then look at the isobar charts available from Onpassage.com, and still reckon that there is only a 50% chance of a correct forecast this year. IMHO it is getting worse.
tyce
Well-Known Member
has anybody got the website address for wind guru, i have never tried it, sounds worth giving a go
Talbot
Well-Known Member
http://www.windguru.cz
You will need to register, then find the nearest beach to your sailing (east solent = Hayling Island) They have two different forecasts, and I reckon the MM25 is better.
<font color="red"> However be aware that it tends to forecast the average weather rather than the extreme</font>
You will need to register, then find the nearest beach to your sailing (east solent = Hayling Island) They have two different forecasts, and I reckon the MM25 is better.
<font color="red"> However be aware that it tends to forecast the average weather rather than the extreme</font>
gjgm
Well-Known Member
well, it is the general forecast for that area- it certainly isnt the forecast for every micro climate. Once was told that met was about 90pct accurate for today, slipping 10pct a day. So theres no forecast for day 6 because even day 5 has only a 50-50 chance of being correct.
davidfox
Well-Known Member
Totally agree, On friday last the BBC forecast for Norwich Area, forecast Sunny for Saturday and Sunday - totally overcast, this was forecast by the local TV station on friday afternoon, I thought strange? and checked the BBC again, they were still using there 0500 forecast of Sun - the weather turned out as forecast by the local TV station
Becky
Well-Known Member
It is not just the 5 day forecasts. When we were stuck in Bayona a few weeks ago, waiting for the winds to ease around Cape Finisterre, on our way North, we telephoned the Met Office for a personal forecast, which told us that there would be a window in 24 hours time. So we went, only to be pasted with winds of up to 40 knots on the nose. The window came alright; 24 hours later Corsen were giving S 3-4. Too late for us. These forecasts aren't cheap, either, especially when we had spent over 15 euros just trying to get through.
I agree with those of you who prefer a synoptic chart, and we had been using Northwood with great success. But after those lunatics blew up parts of London, Northwood went off air, which was at the time of our greatest need. Strangely, I couldn't get a good signal from anywhere else.
I agree with those of you who prefer a synoptic chart, and we had been using Northwood with great success. But after those lunatics blew up parts of London, Northwood went off air, which was at the time of our greatest need. Strangely, I couldn't get a good signal from anywhere else.