Bad weather

[Chris_Robb]

Yes, the first se5 of forecasts earlier this week had the centre moving east then north east into the Aegean before filling and dispersing. It’s now tracking east and filling. Just slightly concerned that it might decide to slide north with little east in it, that would be worrying because, as you say, we’d wind up with strong SE winds and whilst Vliho is OK, other places are much less protected.

Sitting comfortably in the autumnal sunshine back in Blighty, looking at the forecasts is very confusing. Wind finder pro standard run on Levkas shows 15 to 20 where as the super forecast is showing 35knt on friday.. at the cyclone area none are showing more that 35knts.

As long as people dont go to Fiscardo they will be fine. still need to find somewhere with alround protection as if it wobbles west you will have SE or wobble right - northerlies and everything in between.

Have a good day

 

[sailaboutvic]

Sitting comfortably in the autumnal sunshine back in Blighty, looking at the forecasts is very confusing. Wind finder pro standard run on Levkas shows 15 to 20 where as the super forecast is showing 35knt on friday.. at the cyclone area none are showing more that 35knts.

As long as people dont go to Fiscardo they will be fine. still need to find somewhere with alround protection as if it wobbles west you will have SE or wobble right - northerlies and everything in between.

Have a good day

Chris the weather forecaster has been all over the place , in all the years we sailing in the Med , I not every had weather forecaster so far out ,
Poseidon which is one that we use for Greece has never that far out, maybe a force , as been stupidly out , even this morning forecaster showed blue for Itea which is about a F3 and we been have some a blow all day long with the odd quiet period, if you can call a min quiet period
Windfinder and windgure who I not fond off but good as a back up to with other forecaster to see if they are similar this morning both given around 20 kts and only the super forecaster was given 45 plus .
It a bit stupid that the same forecaster from the same site can give a 25 kts different .

 

[mikemanor]

We not long had two big gust that leaned the yacht over the concrete wall , not sure why all the fenders didn't pop .
Local forecaster showin nothing like we getting , only super windfinder is showing it .
Here in Itea with two other YBW forumate ,

I'm in Itea too ����️️ Got here on Tuesday.

 

[sailaboutvic]

I'm in Itea too ����️️ Got here on Tuesday.

Hi mike
Are you on one of the sailing holidays boats that being moved to Corfu ?

 

[Irish Rover]

https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2018/09/27/strong-winds-batter-aegean-as-mediterranean-cyclone-approaches-could-hit-turkeys-west-coast

 

[macd]

https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2018/09/27/strong-winds-batter-aegean-as-mediterranean-cyclone-approaches-could-hit-turkeys-west-coast

Interesting, thanks.
But, "rainfall of 75 kilograms per square meters" seems a strange way of expressing it. Plain old 7.5cm is altogether simpler.

 

[mikemanor]

Hi mike
Are you on one of the sailing holidays boats that being moved to Corfu ?

Hi Vic,

Yes. Aperos, immediately behind the lead boat.

 

[Irish Rover]

Interesting, thanks.
But, "rainfall of 75 kilograms per square meters" seems a strange way of expressing it. Plain old 7.5cm is altogether simpler.

I've no idea where that comes from. The government met service gives rainfall in mm/cm.
Stay safe everybody.

 

[SOT]

Anchored in Vliho Bay, winds from north, F5-6, gusting F8, been blowing since yesterday afternoon. Looks set to stay about the same until Saturday early morning. Lots of folks in sitt8ng things out, many more than normal for this time of year.

Moved down to vlikho today from paleros. Most boats on quay popping anchors all night with f8 gusts. We were on end of pontoon so no anchor problems but major lack of sleep! Vlikho does seem busy as you say.

 

[jordanbasset]

We are in Lefkas Marina so safe but clocked wind hitting 40 knots at one time today.
Feel sorry for the boats on the town quay, especially as you get towards the causeway. Lots of dragging of anchors, saw three boats running their engine to keep themselves off the quay. As this is due to last a while not sure it is a long term solution though

 

[Chris_Robb]

We are in Lefkas Marina so safe but clocked wind hitting 40 knots at one time today.
Feel sorry for the boats on the town quay, especially as you get towards the causeway. Lots of dragging of anchors, saw three boats running their engine to keep themselves off the quay. As this is due to last a while not sure it is a long term solution though

I would hate to be stern too anywhere on an anchor with this forecast. Even if yours holds someone else is bound to go anchor fishing in the middle of the night That mud is very soft there and most ploughs will pull through it.

Much better to put your hook down and swing to the wind.

Let's hope the medicane forecasters are wrong and it does only what the standard forecasts are saying.

Time light the barbie, 20c at mo.:ambivalence:

 

[jordanbasset]

I would hate to be stern too anywhere on an anchor with this forecast. Even if yours holds someone else is bound to go anchor fishing in the middle of the night That mud is very soft there and most ploughs will pull through it.

Much better to put your hook down and swing to the wind.

Let's hope the medicane forecasters are wrong and it does only what the standard forecasts are saying.

Time light the barbie, 20c at mo.:ambivalence:

Agree and if I wasn't in the marina I would not be in Lefkas, much better anchorages within an hour of here
At one point last night I clocked 45 knots, may have been higher later but went back to bed
Still blowing but is starting to drop now

 

[Chris_Robb]

Re: Bad weather. Forecast path of storm

This site has a forecast path. Look at the first box. Going further north than was originally predicted after leaving Greece.

Hold tight everywhere in the Aegean.

http://www.estofex.org

 

[duncan99210]

Re: Bad weather. Forecast path of storm

Interesting site. Thanks for posting it.

 

[Garold]

Agree and if I wasn't in the marina I would not be in Lefkas, much better anchorages within an hour of here
At one point last night I clocked 45 knots, may have been higher later but went back to bed
Still blowing but is starting to drop now

I just overheard a conversation here at Sivota and a chap was saying that a boat had been holed and sunk on the quay at the north side of the Lefkas bridge.

I’m not sure if the report is true but when we were there (by hire car) a couple of days ago it looked like a rotten spot to be stuck in this wind.

Garold

 

[One A.]

If you do FB this open group has a couple of videos of the Lefkas channel https://m.facebook.com/groups/236624803080561

 

[SOT]

So with the current bad weather forecast we are currently in Vlikho bay and I can see Duncan99210 is a few boats away from us here. Where are you choosing to hole up as things unfold, or where would you choose if you were in the area?

 

[Mistroma]

Re: Bad weather. Forecast path of storm

This site has a forecast path. Look at the first box. Going further north than was originally predicted after leaving Greece.

Hold tight everywhere in the Aegean.

http://www.estofex.org

I think only WRF model showed a more northerly path, GFS and COAMPS both indicated it was nearer Crete and heading to Turkey. WRF looked horrible for Cyclades.

Greek meteo were showing it heading more on WRF forecast path and looked like 65kts or so not far from Spetses. Fingers crossed it doesn't get to Porto Heli where we are still holed up.

Forecasts have been variable and we expected 47kts or more a few days ago. We only had 30kts. at most with a few ripples around us. Our wind-gen has only managed 10-20Ah/day over the last 3 days. It was dead calm for most of yesterday afternoon and this morning. We retrieved our second anchor as we were drifting in circles but left it ready on deck.

Still 1016mb here and I guess we'll just have to wait and see if it is going to be extremely windy or amount to nothing at all.

 

[jordanbasset]

I just overheard a conversation here at Sivota and a chap was saying that a boat had been holed and sunk on the quay at the north side of the Lefkas bridge.

I’m not sure if the report is true but when we were there (by hire car) a couple of days ago it looked like a rotten spot to be stuck in this wind.

Garold

Looking at the video below I would not be surprised, horrendous. I think people get lulled into a false sense of security as since the refurbishment you can go alongside with double horizontal rubber rubbing posts. But when the wind reaches the levels it has done then it makes no difference, you are going to get damage

 

[jordanbasset]

If you do FB this open group has a couple of videos of the Lefkas channel https://m.facebook.com/groups/236624803080561

Just found out it looks like the boat being bashed against the harbour wall has indeed been sunk