Allowed on boat...

[Triassic]

What I find interesting is that people don't seem to understand politics..... I'm no fan of Boris but he know's his population. Britain has always prided itself with it's freedom or rights but the downside of this is that we a population that are not accustomed to being told what to do, they need a certain amount of persuasion. Whilst the rest of Europe was going into Lockdown the PM instead chose to follow the herd immunity approach, i.e.: protect the most vulnerable and let the virus run amongst the rest until enough have caught it that it cannot find a fresh host and dies out. Unfortunately our European neighbours kicked up over this and pretty much bullied him into following their lead. Now a Lockdown might work in Italy and Spain where the police not only enjoy a ratio per capita that is over twice ours but they are also obeyed, (through fear rather than consent as we do here). In the UK the only way the government can get compliance is through co-operation, hence his initial guidelines asking us all to be sensible and then his subsequent "directions" that, as some have pointed out on here, left lots of unanswered questions and confusion as to what is and isn't allowed. This has now been backed up with some legislation that sets things out a little clearer, but there is still lots of room to get around them, and we've seen lots of imaginative ones on her as well. This rather proves my point, we don't want to be told what to do. Boris has done all this deliberately, he knew people would work around whatever he put in place so he's still working on his herd immunity approach, but he's made it look as if he isn't..... Covid-19 is going to go right round this country and kill a lot of people. If you're smart you'll let the people who want to go out and get exposed to it do just that whilst you stay nicely locked away. Don't think of ways around the rules, think of ways to stay safe.

 

[Dee Bee]

Actually the Govenment approach in 1939 was completely different from the current approach. Regulations on movement, rationing , black out etc were rigorously enforced and people fined and arrested etc. from Day 1. The problem is that the current regulations do not actually ban you from driving to take excercise and you will see on police websites statements about this being not in the "spirit of the regulations" rather than illegal. I am not advocating disobeying the regs by the way but I think that Boris et al have since the crisis begun have made numerous equivocal statements which tells you something about the man's character.

 

[Tomahawk]

As Triasic says, we are not the same as those in Europe.
Our legislation is based on civil freedom unless there is a law to say no. Whereas in Europe you are only alowed to do something if you have a permit.

As to the approach being taken, he is between a rock and a hard place. If the virus spreads too fast, it will totally overwhelm the NHS by 10:1 or more. That will result in thousands of otherwise preventable deaths.

 

[Kurrawong_Kid]

Actually the Govenment approach in 1939 was completely different from the current approach. Regulations on movement, rationing , black out etc were rigorously enforced and people fined and arrested etc. from Day 1. The problem is that the current regulations do not actually ban you from driving to take excercise and you will see on police websites statements about this being not in the "spirit of the regulations" rather than illegal. I am not advocating disobeying the regs by the way but I think that Boris et al have since the crisis begun have made numerous equivocal statements which tells you something about the man's character.

In 1939 Govt. had the experience and memory of WW1 to be a blueprint for the preparations between Munich and the outbreak of WW2, including emergency orders, whilst this time they had little to go on and not much time. To have the legislation produced and passed in just over a week deserves credit and we were spared a State of Emergency. However the Brits have always been an unruly lot who preferred ruling others!

 

[PeterWright]

I haven't put my intention to do a short drive to walk into operation yet but my quote from the TV was from a politician. I plan to wait a day or two to see how the advice pans out, but in any case I am intending to save fuel and envy for important things, like the mower.

Hi John,

Even though you may not be as aged as me, I would have thought that, by now, you would have given up expecting any sense from politicians!

Peter.

 

[Rappey]

. The problem is that the current regulations do not actually ban you from driving to take excercise .

Many police forces beg to differ. The Isle of Wight police have stated they they have looked into this today and this is now the way it is.

 

[Dee Bee]

Ok that is interesting but if you read the legislation posted earlier, it dies not forbid driving in general. I am not very forgiving of this government's approach to this crisis and its communication of policy.

Many police forces beg to differ. The Isle of Wight police have stated they they have looked into this today and this is now the way it is.

 

[Kukri]

This tweet from Matthew Ryder, Q.C., seems pertinent:

“Seems to be overwhelming consensus from lawyers that police trying to restrict people to ‘emergency travel only’ is unlawful.

They have no power to stop someone driving to an isolated scenic spot to exercise away from others (nor is there any logical reason why there should be).”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1243466523156635648

 

[Kukri]

What I find interesting is that people don't seem to understand politics..... I'm no fan of Boris but he know's his population. Britain has always prided itself with it's freedom or rights but the downside of this is that we a population that are not accustomed to being told what to do, they need a certain amount of persuasion. Whilst the rest of Europe was going into Lockdown the PM instead chose to follow the herd immunity approach, i.e.: protect the most vulnerable and let the virus run amongst the rest until enough have caught it that it cannot find a fresh host and dies out. Unfortunately our European neighbours kicked up over this and pretty much bullied him into following their lead. Now a Lockdown might work in Italy and Spain where the police not only enjoy a ratio per capita that is over twice ours but they are also obeyed, (through fear rather than consent as we do here). In the UK the only way the government can get compliance is through co-operation, hence his initial guidelines asking us all to be sensible and then his subsequent "directions" that, as some have pointed out on here, left lots of unanswered questions and confusion as to what is and isn't allowed. This has now been backed up with some legislation that sets things out a little clearer, but there is still lots of room to get around them, and we've seen lots of imaginative ones on her as well. This rather proves my point, we don't want to be told what to do. Boris has done all this deliberately, he knew people would work around whatever he put in place so he's still working on his herd immunity approach, but he's made it look as if he isn't..... Covid-19 is going to go right round this country and kill a lot of people. If you're smart you'll let the people who want to go out and get exposed to it do just that whilst you stay nicely locked away. Don't think of ways around the rules, think of ways to stay safe.

I think that you most certainly are “a fan of Boris”.

And less English Exceptionalism, please. This isn’t the Daily Express.

 

[Triassic]

Kukri, do you have an alternative logical explanation for what he has done and why?

 

[Kukri]

Kukri, do you have an alternative logical explanation for what he has done and why?

Thank you for asking. As I perhaps say too often, I’m an admirer of Occam’s Razor:

Occam's razor - Wikipedia

I think the simplest explanation which is logical and which fits the facts is that the Government were taken by surprise, as we almost all were.

I suggest that most of us are used to the idea that East Asia gets nasty viruses out of China from time to time, such as SARS, and we are used to seeing pictures of people in the streets of Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan wearing masks, and having their temperatures taken with those hair dryer shaped gadgets, but we didn’t think it would happen here.

(Well, Bill Gates did, but we thought he was exaggerating...)

A better response to the next pandemic

I doubt if the Cabinet were more prescient than the rest of us.

The Government’s initial response, once it became clear that the virus was here, was shaped by what has become known as “the old Imperial College study”, done about 13 years ago, which modelled an outbreak of viral pneumonia.

This led them to favour the “herd immunity” idea, which was attractive because it involved much less disruption than the alternative of locking the nation down.

When Imperial College updated their 13 year old study using actual figures for the Covid19 virus, from China and from Italy, which showed that Covid19 is about twice as infectious as the viral pneumonia used in the study, and these new findings were discussed in COBRA, the Government reversed its position very fast.

I apologise for citing the Guardian but it’s not paywalled and the same information is available elsewhere:

Coronavirus exposes the problems and pitfalls of modelling

I am no fan of Dominic Cummings but we are told that he was the first to grasp the implications and tell Johnson to drop herd immunity and to adopt the same approach as other countries.

So, it seems to me that the Government went with the wrong plan, didn’t prepare, didn’t order ventilators and test kits, thinking that they were not going to be needed, then changed their minds, but for obvious reasons of public confidence, are claiming that it was all part of the original plan.

(For ventilators, see here

https://www.facebook.com/2126073340865034/posts/3120870234718668

 

[Triassic]

I can see the logic behind your argument, but it doesn't change the problem the government has. If I were to agree with you that Lockdown (putting the virus into suppression) is the right tactic, how can it be successfully implemented given the reluctance of the British public to accept it?

 

[Kukri]

I can see the logic behind your argument, but it doesn't change the problem the government has. If I were to agree with you that Lockdown (putting the virus into suppression) is the right tactic, how can it be successfully implemented given the reluctance of the British public to accept it?

I take your point, but I think Dee Bee has answered it with his reference to « DORA » - the Defence of the Realm Act, in 1939. In 1939 there was no resistance to DORA - which was far more drastic - because everyone was used to the idea that there was going to be a war, and it was going to be grim. The public were prepared.

With Covid19, the Government were taken by surprise, but instead of doing what other European governments did*, and preparing people for a lockdown, they thought for a while that they could go along with the less disruptive « herd immunity » plans.

And may I suggest that now that the British public have got the message, we have almost all accepted it. This was Woodbridge Thoroughfare at 10.30 this morning:



It makes a contrast with Dylan’s KTL video of the same scène the week before last :

 

[Triassic]

Many police forces beg to differ. The Isle of Wight police have stated they they have looked into this today and this is now the way it is.

Without getting dragged into another conversation.... I think you need to bear in mind that the vast majorityof law enforcement in the UK is based around what is considered reasonable and this will vary from place to place and according to circumstance. The recent legislation around Coronavirus specifically states that no person may leave the place where they are living without a reasonable excuse, and it then goes on to provide examples including the need to take exercise. The simple question the police will be asking is is it reasonable for you to have to drive your car in order to take exercise? If you live in a significantly built up area where it would be difficult to safely take exercise without exposing yourself to risk of infection from others I would argue it may be reasonable for you to drive to a more suitable location, if however reasonable exercise could safely be had close to home then it may not be?

 

[photodog]

I can see the logic behind your argument, but it doesn't change the problem the government has. If I were to agree with you that Lockdown (putting the virus into suppression) is the right tactic, how can it be successfully implemented given the reluctance of the British public to accept it?

we wouldn’t have needed this lockdown if the government had displayed any competence...and taken the situation serioysly and paid attention to the WHO guidance in mid January.

look at Singapore. They did, they have something like 800 cases and 5 deaths... they brought in sensible public health monitoring, extensive sanitation precautions, and test and contact tracing... and now, kids are still at school, business is still open.

this lockdown and these deaths are the result of government incompetence. They ignored the problem, and now they have had to bring in draconian measures to try to appear to save lives.

the whole English Exceptionalism thing doesnt wash... we wouldn’t have needed these restrictions, if Boris Johnson and his administration had listened to the WHO.

 

[Triassic]

Kukri, I absolutely don't dispute your theory around preparation and readiness. My wife is a GP and she is absolutely shocked at how little preparation went on despite the entire UK medical community shouting at the government for the last two months.....

What I would say is this, had the government tried to impose a Lockdown when it perhaps should have, over three weeks ago, then there is no way whatsoever that the British public would have accepted it or co-operated in any way. It is only now, with the news from Italy, Spain and the USA dominating the headlines, that there is some willingness to follow a Lockdown.

 

[Kukri]

Triassic, your wife’s comments are very much to the point, I think. Thanks for sharing them.

In support of Photodog’s post no. 95, above, here is the speech that the Prime Minister of Singapore gave to that nation on the 12th of March, the day before the British government changed its mind.

It’s clear, there is no waffle or playing to the gallery, and whilst Lee Hsien Loong is a fearsomely intelligent man (double starred First in Maths at Cambridge) he does not talk doe but explains everything in clear, simple, language:

 

[Rappey]

look at Singapore.

But they only have 5.6 million on a 31 mile long island.. hardly even close to a fair comparison ?

 

[photodog]

But they only have 5.6 million on a 31 mile long island.. hardly even close to a fair comparison ?

Much much higher population density, Very high public transport use, lots of international travel, So the risks of transmission are much higher there... look at the place we are having the most problems in... London.

 

[Kukri]

But they only have 5.6 million on a 31 mile long island.. hardly even close to a fair comparison ?

Rappey, I think it is a reasonable comparison, because Singapore is very densely populated and is far more racially and culturally diverse than Britain is, being about half Chinese, a third Malay and a sixth Indian (very roughly).