4 out of 5 boats sink in the harbour.

[Nostrodamus]

I have just been reading an interesting article stating that 4 out of 5 boats sink, not at sea, but in the harbour/ marina.

It would appear that through hull fittings are a cause but so is rain and snow on boats that are rarely checked.

The article is here

http://threesheetsnw.com/

 

[marklucas]

Well it's pretty obvious really.

The vast majority of boats spend the vast majority of their time in harbour, and during that time in harbour, they are unattended.

Just like the majority of collisions involving cars happen within five miles of the owners home - simply because virtually every journey they make starts or finishes there.

Simples.

And just for a further bit of probabilistic opprobrium - without googling - answer these two to the nearest ten:

1. If I am in a room and people start walking in - how many have to walk in before the odds are 50% or better that one of them has the same birthday as me?
2. If I am in a room and people start walking in - how many have to walk in such that the odds are 50% or better that two of them share the same birthday?

 

[Steve Clayton]

answer to first one is 30

 

[marklucas]

answer to first one is 30

Apologies - got my answers in the wrong order - so 30 is within ten of the second question - but way out on the first.

 

[Steve Clayton]

answer for q2 is 31

 

[Steve Clayton]

answer to first one is 30

 

[Steve Clayton]

f'ing android phone!

 

[nimbusgb]

...... and a hell of a lot of people die in hospital.

Statistics are a bitch!

 

[Juan Twothree]

I have just been reading an interesting article stating that 4 out of 5 boats sink, not at sea, but in the harbour/ marina.

That sounded a bit alarming on first reading.

Maybe you should have worded it "Of those boats that sink, four out of five do so not at sea, ....."

 

[Nostrodamus]

That sounded a bit alarming on first reading.

Maybe you should have worded it "Of those boats that sink, four out of five do so not at sea, ....."

Dramatic licence. Learnt all I know from YM.

 

[Steve Clayton]

On a "proper" 'puter now. I didn't need to go google first. Seen this problem 25+ years ago in Project Management and rules of probability scenarios (eg Monte-Carlo simulations).

I've googled now and "As each person is added, the odds do not increase linearly, but rather they curve upwards rapidly. This trend continues up to around twenty-three people, where the curve hits 50% odds,...."

It's only a rule of thumb based on factors such as more people are born in Spring and (in hospital) more on a Monday/Tuesday and less on Saturday/Sunday buy hey-ho; does it really matter?

 

[Poignard]

I have just been reading an interesting article stating that 4 out of 5 boats sink, not at sea, but in the harbour/ marina.

I remember reading somewhere that most of the yachtsmen who die by drowning do so in port, eg in dinghy upsets or by walking off a pontoon.

Which all goes to show that "You're safer at sea"

 

[davidej]

I think you mean

"four out of five boats that sink, do so in the harbour"


If you were right I would be seeing mast-tops poking above the water at 80% of yacht moorings

 

[Steve Clayton]

I think you mean

"four out of five boats that sink, do so in the harbour"


If you were right I would be seeing mast-tops poking above the water at 80% of yacht moorings

Bugga!

 

[Deleted member 36384]

Right on cue. This poor fishing boat sank in Largs Yacht Haven recently.

 

[prv]

Right on cue. This poor fishing boat sank in Largs Yacht Haven recently.

Looks rather similar to the one that sank on the Itchen not that many months ago.

Pete

 

[Nostrodamus]

I see Sybarite put a post on here saying 20 boats had sunk in Geneva under the weight of ice... Just though I would mention it to all you sat at home in warm houses watching the snow fall. Don't worry, your boat will be ok... maybe

 

[prv]

I see Sybarite put a post on here saying 20 boats had sunk in Geneva under the weight of ice... Just though I would mention it to all you sat at home in warm houses watching the snow fall. Don't worry, your boat will be ok... maybe

Mine's sitting in a gravel yard, so it would take some pretty serious geological activity for her to sink

Pete

 

[Nostrodamus]

Mine's sitting in a gravel yard, so it would take some pretty serious geological activity for her to sink

Pete

Is that just below Mount Etna?

 

[chinita]

If those stats are correct, it makes me wonder how insurance companies arrive at their premiums.

Of the remaining 20% I also wonder how many have come to grief upon contact with land.

Yet, premiums are loaded the further offshore you go.