10 day accurate synoptic forecast?

[bikedaft]

suspect i am asking for the impossible... happy with XC weather up to 5 days or so, albeit that fronts can change their (forecast) speed. but looking for longer, as arranging a trip (hillwalking, sorry!) in 8 days time, need to order maps for everyone etc, really deciding between Cairngorms, far NW e.g. Cape Wrath/Kinlochewe, or even Arran, to get the least bad weather.

metcheck.com have a 10 day synoptic forecast, but i have never noticed/used this before. their standard 10 forecast seems a bit hit or miss to me on days 6-10, but i think that reflects the impossibility of the task of predicting the future?

any thoughts?

cheers!

 

[dunedin]

BBC Weather claim to show 14 days. But unless the weather systems are unusually stable (i.e. very lucky) it is probably no more accurate than checking your tea leaves

 

[LittleSister]

The Met Office do a 10 day video weather preview using animated synoptic charts to illustrate the talk, and highlighting the uncertainties, etc. E.g.

I don't think you will get 'accuracy' in a 10 day forecast, but you can get a good idea of how the weather systems are shaping up, and the uncertainties and sensitivities, which will give a fair idea of the likely parameters of the weather an area is likely to get.

 

[colind3782]

Weather Forecast - Forecast.co.uk

They do 14 day forecasts for specific areas but, after being involved with aviation for forty odd years, I don't believe a forecast more than 24 hours away, there are too many influences on the weather in the British Isles. Just pick a forecast you like and prepare well for bad weather.

 

[[70521]]

any thoughts?

Mountains make their own weather! As we both know you can have four seasons in an hour on a Scottish mountain.

I use Synoptic Charts when in the hills back home.

 

[Lightwave395]

Wind map - DETAILED 15-day WEATHER FORECASTS - METEO CONSULT

 

[alexincornwall]

Windy do one if you're a premium subscriber. In reality, the results are usually inaccurate until around 5 days off.

 

[Roberto]

suspect i am asking for the impossible... happy with XC weather up to 5 days or so, albeit that fronts can change their (forecast) speed. but looking for longer, as arranging a trip (hillwalking, sorry!) in 8 days time, need to order maps for everyone etc, really deciding between Cairngorms, far NW e.g. Cape Wrath/Kinlochewe, or even Arran, to get the least bad weather.

metcheck.com have a 10 day synoptic forecast, but i have never noticed/used this before. their standard 10 forecast seems a bit hit or miss to me on days 6-10, but i think that reflects the impossibility of the task of predicting the future?

any thoughts?

cheers!

At +10days only probabilistic forecasts are sensible, for example here
ECMWF | Charts

Choose "meteogram" by clicking on a place on the weather chart, this taken randomly somewhere in North UK; see also wind quadrants probabilities line: good agreement between the Ensemble members as to S-SW winds, which usually indicates likely rain

 

[Sybarite]

Météo Cairngorm (Écosse) - Vue Synthetique - Prévisions METEO DETAILLEES à 15 jours - METEO CONSULT

 

[DipperToo]

Ventusky (paid version)

 

[bikedaft]

Brilliant - many thanks everyone

 

[BobnLesley]

Everybody's 'forecasts' are based on the US NOAA or/and the European meteo grib models both of which predict to 240 hours (10 days) so any forecast beyond that is nothing more than a best guess; worthless other than as a marketing tool and to be honest, based on real world/long distance experience, I would not ever 'rely' on a forecast beyond 48-60 hours, nor even give much credence to anything beyond 96 hours and that's for open water, in somewhere like the Greek islands, I become wary after only 30 - 40 hours.

 

[Tomahawk]

Have a look at this ..
weather model gfs model - europe - precipitation [base + 12] | weatheronline


The site offers moat of the major models, GFS, ECWMF, NAVGEM, UKMO ..
As you can see the GFS goes out 384 hours. In reality thats a fairy story by itself. However, you can and should watch the forecast for your target date every day to see if or by how much the forecast is changing as the date approaches.

 

[blush2]

Weather Forecast - Forecast.co.uk

They do 14 day forecasts for specific areas but, after being involved with aviation for forty odd years, I don't believe a forecast more than 24 hours away, there are too many influences on the weather in the British Isles. Just pick a forecast you like and prepare well for bad weather.

I agree. Just spent ten days sailing between the Dart and Falmouth. Looking at local forecasts before and during the trip, they changed every couple of hours.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

As Ive said before, the problem with forecasts is the weather doesn't look at them.