You quote gusts from two locations. You do not know what is happening nearby, nor what happens at the two station between the reporting times. The algorithms used will be based on large volumes of data. They probably represent worst cases. If they consistently under-predicted gusts they would be criticised.
We take billions of watts of power out of the wind. My question has always been, what did that power do before we started extracting it?Click "climate change" & Franksingleton will immediately pop up. He is your man for weather
It ran into trees and gave up its power to them.
That’s my bugbear with the Met office app. In my experience it consistently over-predicts gusts.
I think that you did not read my post or, maybe, it was not clear. I said that you do not know what is happening at other locations. And unless you are there, you do not (or may not) know what happened between the reporting hours. The Met Office topographic data set will be the best available. That does not necessarily mean that the model is dealing with it in the best way. If you are using PW for detail forecasts, then it is almost certainly UKV. Given that the Met Office UK UM is one of the best models I do not understand why you are seeing the differences that you describe. Why not ask them directly. Quote your data. Let me know if you get an answer.
It gets dispersed through friction and viscous effects. The energy will be lost out to space.
Without a carefully set up study, you cannot say that any more than I can say that you are wrong. All I can say is that, in my experience, the Met Office will have done its research to derive the gust algorithms.
I doubt that a statistical study would confirm your claim. Suggest it as a project for a local school or college. I do not know about the current BBC app. They used to use the GFS when they were in private hands. I assume that they now use the Met Office so would expect no difference.
That certainly is not my experience. Even warm frontal rain is rarely steady. Take a look at radar displays. I suspect that the radars, hence the app, underestimates drizzle as the drops may well not be seen. There are also situations where showers are below the radar beams covering the area.
Again, you would need a statistically sound study to justify that.
Yes I just ignore the MetOffice web site for gust speed and use other more accurate models/sites. Fine for whether need an umbrella, but not for sailing.
I read your post Frank but I still dont understand what you are getting at when you say " And unless you are there, you do not (or may not) know what happened between the reporting hours " . I am comparing actual data minute by minute of steady wind and gusts from 2 weather stations and comparing the numbers gust ; steady. Then I look at the latest Met office forecast from the Met Office website and see that whilst the Met office forecast for the steady wind is as near as any of the other models, their gust forecast is always significantly higher and usually, but not always, wrong.
That sounds fair, I’ll gather evidence to check whether my experience actually reflects reality, and I’ll get back with some data.
I was trying to say that you only see an observation covering 10 minutes in one hour. Also, you do not know what is happening elsewhere. However, going back to #28, try to use ChatGPT to get objective assessments. I have no way of checking forecasts myself without a lot of work.
That may be your opinion. I can only state that, from my knowledge of the Met Office and other national centres. It is always the case that forecast are the best information available and that it is counter productive to over predict delibersyrly.
We still have and could sail it ourselves, cross Channel, Brittany southwards until I was 89. We now have tto depend on family to keep us sailing. Drinks 6, feeds 4, sleeps 2! Actually, it is a very good boat for 2. Low freeboard making it easy mooring and getting ashore. A good sailer. We think better than the 342/
To be fair, I really only use the app for land based use. Can we get to the village in the dry etc. our sailing is, essentially cruising. So, I use GRIBs for most of our decisions and watch GMDSS carefully. We had some fairly critical decions this year between Dartmouth and St Denis d’Oleron. Getting from Audierne to Camaret, L’Aber Wrac’h, Roscoff, Lezardrieux, St Peter Port and Dartmouth in late August/early September, arrived back on 7 September involved some fairly critical decisions as we were getting close to the 90 day limit.
I had one of those for years but I added 25% for masthead, which when I eventually got a masthead wind speed machine proved not too far from actual readings.
Yes definitely. Not just bragging rights, but personally I'm interested anyway - I've got another anemometer (KA the ani-ani-wotsit meter after my preteen son couldn't remember the word!) at home, which tells me I once had a 70kt gust through the back garden, flattening the neighbours ugly newly installed Berlin Wall style fence.
