Which Weather Forecast in Greece?

[Gypsyjoss]

As a regular sailor in the Aegean I look at various websites for the next 3 days' sailing weather and am always surprised at the significant differences in their predictions which can relate to not only wind strength but direction and time. This can be a pain for planning when the majority of ports/ bays only provide good protection from the north.
My favourites are www.poseidon.hcmr.gr/sailing www.meteo.gr and www.noa.gr. I don't have much faith in any of them. I trust Navtex for gale warnings but the areas it covers are too large for more local weather.
Who do you trust?

 

[dolphin]

weather forecast in greece

sometimes, i cross-check the forecast with turkish site
http://www.meteor.gov.tr/en-US/marine-metu3-detail.aspx
both sites, which you use, are good but do not forget the influence of a shore to the wind and many times the wind, close ashore, is different from the forecast !
regards

 

[charles_reed]

Personally, I've been disappointed in Poseidon, though it's the best of a pretty poor lot.

I've found the most satisfactory is to download the NOAA GRIB files and derive a forecast for myself.

Poseidon usually gets wind direction roughly correct, but almost always over-estimates wind-speeds and is pretty inaccurate on the timing of wind-shifts.

 

[CharlesSwallow]

Well Charles, you are in luck...

...just been talking to Mr C. on the phone, he ans lady wife are delayed in Agia Eufemia due to his having contracted both food poisoning and a water infection, saturday night. Apparently both Sailing Holidays flotillas were wakened by their leaders at 0630 for a dash to beat the severe weather promised as imminent by Poseidon. Now what Mr C. got on Ugrib (Google it) was the bad weather starting at around 2100 this evening at 30kts from north west veering NNW. This will blow until thursday morning and then go south dropping off to < 10kts.

We use Ugrib too and have never found it less than reliable. Oh, and as to "Derriving a forecast" from Ugrib, you don't need to. Just use the "animation" option and it will give you a moving picture for up to five days ahead

Chas

 

[saltwater_gypsy]

Just a plug for http://www.passageweather.com/ which is based in GRIB files and is excellent.

 

[duncan99210]

Been using UGRIB since we left UK and now sitting in Gouvia with the forecast wind keeping us a little on the cool side of comfortable. Wetheronline are also pretty reasonable when you can't use your own computer, as UGRIB needs its own programme to download the GRIB file.

 

[Gypsyjoss]

Cheers

Thanks guys for your info.

I've looked at both Ugrib (downloaded everything) and www.passageweather.com. Both show animated grib files from good sources. The advantage of passageweather.com is that you don't have to download application software or a grib file, which for me speeds up using internet cafes and a laptop(if that's what you use). However the resolution is poor compared with Ugrib which allows you to focus on a small area. Whether you get additional or more local info on Ugrib is doubtful-just a better image I suspect.

 

[jimbaerselman]

No forecasts in the Mediterranean can cope with the detailed effects of high islands or coastlines on the winds. And although they make a brave stab at the diurnal effects, those also are not locally predictable. So, in general, people used to more northern latitudes will criticise Med wind forecast accuracy.

One thing the forecasts are good at is predicating the onset of big winds - the E/W of the Gibraltar straits, the Mistral/Tramontana, the Bora and the Meltemi. What the land masses do to muck that up is another matter . . .

The forecasts are also good at predicting the onset of unsettled weather - when some low pressure system or high humidity causes a breakdown from the settled weather. What they cannot do is predict the timing and ferocity of the breakdown very accurately.

Most forecasts use the same basic data, and many also use the same forecasting models, so they actually show the same maps. Just in different colours, or perhaps interpolated into three hour steps instead of 6 hour steps. So, more often than not its the same stuff.

Given the uncertainties, I see no grounds for preferring one set of forecasts over another, except for the differences in presentation.

 

[charles_reed]

Jim. none of the forecasters can hope to get it right - it's too chaotic (in the true sense of the word).

That's why, instead of offloading the responsibity on some poor innocent metman; boaters should accept that they have the means (eyeball Mk1 & barometer) to produce, with the information the pros have, a more accurate definition of the probable local weather.

Incidentally, I've given up on uGrib, too limited, too late and too flaky. I use zyGrib.

So the call is to resist the nanny State mind-set and be somewhat more self-reliant.

 

[tri39]

In the Adriatic I "trust" Split Navtex. I also listen to the same fcst on VHF when pos.
I often compare it with the Italian VHF and Navtex.
As Charles says I also use my eyes and try and follow the cycles.
Only really surprised twice in the last two months by a "yachtsman's gale" altho the Med can get short and quite rough quickly.
No computers involved. I did once check out Meteomar in Dubrovnik promising pleasant sailing, only to have a 36hr sleigh ride straight to Corfu!
You do really have to become an amateur weather forecaster yourself especially for the local effects.

 

[Paddy_N_Murphy]

We were using Windfinder.com last week in the Dodecanese.

Seemed OK-ish. But I agree with above - it sooooo depends on the land effect of the islands.