Which forecast to believe?

[SimonFa]

I've got a mate coming down for the weekend at we're desperate to do a bit of sailing round Weymouth area this weekend. Obviously we don't want to do anything stupid and I even in summer when they start predicting F8/9 gusts we find other things do to, usually golf.

Anyway, when I look at the general purpose forecast I use I find that it doesn't look too bad for Saturday:

View attachment 38536

F3 gusting F5/6 looks OK. A reef, maybe two, to be on the safe side. However I never use that one for sailing. So a check on the inshore forecast:

View attachment 38537

Hmmm, F7 to gusting F9 veering to F5 to F7 later. That doesn't look like fun, especially in winter.

Finally, the surface pressure chart doesn't look to bad:

View attachment 38538

Those isobars are quite open although I don't have any way of measuring and getting the wind speed off them.

We won't make a decision until the morning but which forecast should I use in the morning? I accept that in the end its my decision and if it gets a bit hairy I won't come back point the finger

Thanks,

Simon

 

[Twister_Ken]

here's another…

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/weymouth-dorset#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1388793600

 

[Stork_III]

Here is another

http://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/weymouth-harbour

 

[SteveSarabande]

The shipping forecast is showing stuff way out to sea so is often worse. In the Bristol Channel the Lundy forecast is always worse than what we actually get in Cardiff

 

[SimonFa]

Thank a for the prompt response and the links. I should have said I also use wind guru but haven't checked Grib yet.

 

[Bosun Higgs]

The inshore waters you quote gives 5 to 7 for saturday . Allowing for this being the worst that you will see in the area concerned ( eg off a headland for example) it isnt much out of line with the XC weather forecast, which is of course a forecast for the land where the wind is always less. Other forecats give 20 / 24 kn plus gusts for sat pm. So likely 5 or 6 gusting 7.

Weather 2 has 20 gusting 25 with 2m swell off weymouth

 

[Barbican]

Anyone use Metcheck hobbies/sailing forecast? I use the normal version for day to day stuff not really assesed the others

 

[GHA]

Greenwich lightship is showing 37kts at the moment and the gribs show a band of higher winds going through the channel tomorrow morning. Which might be the 5 - 7 later in the Met Office but maybe not so breezy up at Weymouth. Seastate could be a bit choppy though.

 

[SimonFa]

. Seastate could be a bit choppy though.

Yes, we'll drive along the front first and have a look. If it gets too bad we can pop in to Portland Harbour.

 

[GHA]

Yes, we'll drive along the front first and have a look. If it gets too bad we can pop in to Portland Harbour.

And of course there's franks links for a real time look around

http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread.php?382975-Weather-actuals

 

[SteveSarabande]

The current weather will be gone by tomorrow, it might effect the we state though.

 

[Pleiades]

Just a note if not used to boating in Weymouth marina should you be up that way. Be very careful if using Weymouth marina during floods. When the sluice gates at the eastern end of the marina open the torrent of water pushing out through the pontoons is potentially very hazardous - it probably makes about 10 knots at times - if you fell in anywhere near the flood gates you would be a goner and boat handling goes all rubbishy - so if you are intending to dock or slip to catch the bridge lift just when the surge is on you would be better to take up golf or some such like pass time....until lesser waters re-appear.
Robin
Pleiades of Birdham
MXWQ5

 

[robmcg]

Just a note if not used to boating in Weymouth marina should you be up that way. Be very careful if using Weymouth marina during floods. When the sluice gates at the eastern end of the marina open the torrent of water pushing out through the pontoons is potentially very hazardous - it probably makes about 10 knots at times - if you fell in anywhere near the flood gates you would be a goner and boat handling goes all rubbishy - so if you are intending to dock or slip to catch the bridge lift just when the surge is on you would be better to take up golf or some such like pass time....until lesser waters re-appear.
Robin
Pleiades of Birdham
MXWQ5

The sluice can give Niagra falls a run for its money.

 

[onesea]

Which forecast look at them all, if they are all trending up and its already a bit breezy on the morning I would walk away.

If its trending down and not too breezy I would consider.

 

[SimonFa]

Just a note if not used to boating in Weymouth marina should you be up that way. Be very careful if using Weymouth marina during floods. When the sluice gates at the eastern end of the marina open the torrent of water pushing out through the pontoons is potentially very hazardous - it probably makes about 10 knots at times - if you fell in anywhere near the flood gates you would be a goner and boat handling goes all rubbishy - so if you are intending to dock or slip to catch the bridge lift just when the surge is on you would be better to take up golf or some such like pass time....until lesser waters re-appear.
Robin
Pleiades of Birdham
MXWQ5

Thanks, hadn't thought of that and when I was down there yesterday for a check there was quite a stream from the sluice gates.

Plan B is a walk from Kimmeridge to Worth Maytavers and is definitely looking favourite.

 

[nigelmercier]

Do what most sailors do, keep looking at different forecasts until you find one you like.

But this weekend, go to the pub.

 

[marklucas]

Your forecast is the one you make.

There is lots of information out there.

Your eyes looking to windward before you set off will tell you a lot if you know what to look for, as well as a memory of what happened in the last 12 hours combined with a synoptic chart.

Good luck.

 

[Woodlouse]

All the forecasts get their data from the Met office. Why look anywhere else? All you're seeing is different interpretations of the same info, or no interpretation at all.

 

[viago]

yesterday evening my son told me that the beeb had issued a very severe weather warning later for the south west. i went on the met office site and they had nothing for thursday and a yellow "be aware" designation for the incoming weather/spring tide on friday.
so, i went on the beeb sight and they had ramped it up to all out red all up the west cost and had the environment agency (with their announcement of sackings in flood defense) claiming the same level of threat.
presumably the beeb gets it's weather from the met, so i wonder about the mixed messages myself.
not sure who got it right. i do know that the west coast of ireland got well and truly hammered.

best bet is probably mapping the shipping forecast, and keeping an eye on your barometer. a bit old hat but it seems to work. or even just play golf.

 

[GHA]

All the forecasts get their data from the Met office. Why look anywhere else? All you're seeing is different interpretations of the same info, or no interpretation at all.

Aren't all the free ones like windguru, xcweather etc mostly just looking at the free American GFS computer model data?

Now what you really need is..

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Reeds-Weath...=1388819388&sr=8-1&keywords=Singleton+weather

Highly recommended

I find this handy as well..

http://www.raintoday.co.uk