Where is that Atlantic low going to go?

[dralex]

I'm not geat at synoptic charts and weather forecasting, but notice there is a low forming in the Atlantic for the weekend. Ther is also a high pressure on the south coast with some residual westerly winds. Where is that low going to go and is it going to miss the Channel? Look at it here

 

[ShipsWoofy]

Is not looking good for the weekend, better for you lads dan sath than us Westerners who are going to be nursing our hyperthermia!

The models show a wet window for late sat / sunday in the channel but if the forecast is correct then it is going to be wet and blowing later.

I bet, from Saturday morning - strong wind warnings for Sole, Lundy, Irish Sea, and gales in Malin, Hebrides and Fastnet.

Any one else?

 

[tcm]

of more interest to some peeps is the wave/swell height, which beyond lands end is from the west, and towartd 3m on saturday, decreasing.

 

[dralex]

Hyperthermia- I didn't know it got that hot in North Wales. Must be that shaggy coat keeping you warm.

 

[starboard]

No doubt it will do the normal thing and come and sit over the West coast of Scotland.........it would appear we have had our quota of 10 dry days this Summer..

Paul.

 

[Cornishman]

Opinion down here is that the Low will head north of Scotland at the weekend and forecast for sea area Plymouth is for SW 4-5 with occasional rain. Atlantic swell forecast for west of Scilly is for 6feet right through into next week, but early this morning it was 3.5 feet

 

[Evadne]

That's what the met office charts seem to show, with it deepening in a rather nasty looking way Sunday-ish.
I'm joining a ship in Falmouth so you can guarantee it will pee down all weekend, then the high will re-esablish so that we get the usual Scotch porridge weather in the SW approaches for the next fortnight.

 

[DaveS]

Just where it's not wanted IMHO! I'm just setting off to see if I can get to Harris before it arrives. Unless, of course, plans change...

 

[Sgeir]

Harris? That's a fair sail - starting at Craobh I presume.

Good luck with it Dave!

 

[DaveS]

Apologies for belated reply...

Yes, it became something of an epic. Our initial crossing was not, in the event, all the way to Harris, but even so Puilldobhrain to Wizard's hole in 15 hours wasn't bad... We sat out the gale in Lochmaddy; all vis. buoys occupied so we anchored in South Basin: 16 kg Delta on 35m of 8mm in 4 - 5 m mud. F9 veering through 270 deg over 24 hours with many gusts over 50 kn. No discernable anchor movement BUT, previously, 1500 rpm in reverse to "bed it in" had in fact made it drag slowly - an interesting discussion topic I feel! Some good days through Sd. of Harris - I was particularly taken with Taransay despite swamping the dinghy on departure - then a horribly bouncy, slow, diesel-drinking motor South with F5/6 on the nose after the mainsail split: repairs are meant to be done by the end of this week - we'll see... Oh, and we had fog rounding Ardnamurchan - this shortly after reading the review on radar reflectors that put mine bottom of the heap! /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif

 

[machurley22]

Bl**dy hell Dave, an epic right enough! How did your main split? I'd like to hear more about the dragging anchor that held OK in F9 too. Perhaps you should start a blog?

Glad to hear you're back safe and sound anyway.

 

[DaveS]

The mainsail split between the 2nd and 3rd reef points - literally as I was reaching for the ropes to pull the 3rd reef in! An old lesson here - reef before you think it's really necessary! It meant I could still use the sail on the 3rd reef which was something. The same thing happened a few inches away last year and the sail's 16 years old now, so I think that I'll get a new one made this winter and keep the repaired one (once it IS repaired) as a spare. (I'm currently using an old Vivacity main which I retired as too shapeless 20 years ago! You can imagine how that performs...)

I'm going to start a thread on the anchor issue to see if others have had similar experiences: it was a particularly dramatic example of something I've been beginning to suspect for some time - that a good anchor in good holding is maybe better left alone than mucked around with.

Thanks for the link. I've taken the first steps to set up a blog and might even get round to writing something in it...

I'm also seriously considering a prop change to improve motoring performance to windward. Of course if we'd left ourselves more time, then even with a fully reefed main we'd have been able to beat home, taking an extra day. Would have lost a day at work, but a new prop will cost quite a few days' pay... Difficult one.

 

[machurley22]

[ QUOTE ]
The mainsail split between the 2nd and 3rd reef points - literally as I was reaching for the ropes to pull the 3rd reef in!

[/ QUOTE ]
A fresh breeze then!
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the link. I've taken the first steps to set up a blog and might even get round to writing something in it...

[/ QUOTE ]
You really should. The piece you wrote about sailing to your last Munro was very good. You should put the link up here - there's lots of climbing sailors around.
[ QUOTE ]
I'm also seriously considering a prop change to improve motoring performance to windward.

[/ QUOTE ]
Surprised to hear this. I seem to remember an effortless 6+ knots on a pickle o' revs.

 

[DaveS]

Blog not established yet - I'm having password problems. Once it's working I thought I might put in a link to the "last Munro" article and also, if I can establish the link, to a write up of the SMC Centenery Yachting Meet. Although a non-member, I was able to take part in this - with at 22' by far the smallest boat there - and it was very memorable.

Current motoring performance is normally OK but deteriorates considerably against wind and big waves. Of course, as I suggested above, it could be argued that motoring (or should that be moroning) against a good sailing wind is plain daft since the undoubted saving in time is dearly paid for in increased discomfort, noise, vibration, diesel consumption and maintenance costs. The only justification is time pressure - and a properly planned trip shouldn't put you in that position. (Assume a rant with synopsis: modern life, artificial pressures, sailing meant to be escape, etc. etc.) BTW the new prop - if I do go for it - would probably be a feathering type so that both sailing and motoring performance should improve.

More to the point I got the repaired sail back this morning /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif and I'm off tomorrow afternoon on the mountaineering club's annual sailing meet.