What happens when the fuel just becomes too dear?

[ontheplane]

With fuel prices still climbing, and no sign of that ending, and the oil supplies being used up at a collossal rate, much talk happens about alternative fuels but boating might be a bit harder than cars...


Electric seems the cars future - be that hybrid, All electric or what to my mind is the best idea a range extender electric car.

But what fuel will boats use?

I saw an article in autocar about a Lotus that the factory had developed that would run on Methanol, ethanol, petrol, diesel or just about any other liquid that combusts!! Obviously the performance varied depending on what you burnt, but pretty much pour a bottle of scotch in the tank and it would run on it.....

This got me thinking - what's happenning in the boating world? Do we think any of the main engine providers (Read Volvo really) have any kind of plan on what's going to happen when the fuel starts to get so silly people stop boating.

I mean I am looking at a boat at the mo with a 5.8 V8 petrol in it.

Now given it will burn 7 or 8 gal an hr at cruise that's about £50 per hr - which is just about bearable - but what if that engine starts to cost £200 an hour to fuel - fantasy? I'm not so sure - I think the £2 per litre is only a year away - and who's going to bet that the £4 litre is much more than 5 years off??

I looked back at some receipts for fuel I found in some old paperwork - 8 years ago I paid £0.58p for a litre of petrol... it's now £1.30 a litre - and will be £1.50 by the end of this summer by my guess... so a threefold increase in 8 years - and the rate of increase is also getting more....

So lets say that in 5 years we'll see £4 a litre - what will a 25' V8 powered boat burning 8 gal an hr (£145 per hr) be worth? Will we be able to convert these engines to methanol or ethanol?

What's others view on how it will go?

It isn't that we can't afford it, but it's what would you rather do with your money. If a day out on the boat now costs £100-150 that's fine people will pay it - but if it costs £500 then will people go "stuff that, I can go on holiday for a week for that money" and come out of boating...?

 

[Ripster]

What about this scenario - fuel does indeed go up to say £3 per L. So.. electric cars and the assciated technology development speeds up - fuel cell/electric vehicles do come in and begin to become the norm. The demand for petrol and diesel starts to drop and so does the price. Bio fuels also start to become more feasible/attractive if fossils go up this high. But I agree in the immediate future, good ol' diesel will continue to go up.

Just thoughts....

 

[Flying Penguin]

It isn't that we can't afford it, but it's what would you rather do with your money. If a day out on the boat now costs £100-150 that's fine people will pay it - but if it costs £500 then will people go "stuff that, I can go on holiday for a week for that money" and come out of boating...?

I can't really comment on MoBo pain thresholds (being a definite raggie), but I'd question whether you'd still be going on £500 holidays if fuel quadrupled* in price? How much would it cost to go any distance, or bring any product anywhere? I can't see the gap between fuel and holiday prices closing that much, I'd expect a general increase and a lot more staying at home!

*Based on your example numbers

 

[TQA]

Guess it will be back to boating's roots then

 

[BartW]

What's others view on how it will go?

I absolutely don't agree with some doom scenary's posted on here lately.

imho

with the actual fuel prices, most people are still using their cars as much as before and roads are still over saturated.
imo fuel price will even increase a lot more the coming years, and still can increase before the mass public will stop using their car , or look out for other energy sources.

the demand and supply for fuel is such a big and important economic force with so many players both supply and demand, that there will be a balance (but steady price increase) for a few more decennia I think.
I am not a macro economist, but this is just my view on this.

10 year ago, I had a 50hp two stroke boat engine, consumption was 25l petrol/hour, which was very expensive for me, but it didn’t stop me using the boat.
Now my boat uses 300l diesel/hr, and its still very expensive, and I did more hours with this boat last year then the small one 10 years ago.
Perhaps not an example that’s appropriate for everybody, but at least it shows that it is very difficult to predict what’s going to happen when fuel prices go up.
People will still use the kind of boat they can afford.

I don’t believe that during the rest of my active life fuel will disappear completely, (soon be 50yo)
On the other hand, I do believe that my grandchildren won’t drive petrol nor diesel cars anymore.
But that’s good, and I don’t care.

I don’t believe that Volvo, nor Cat, nor Man, cares about the future of boat engines at this moment
Their market is cars, trucks and industrial applications.
Boating is just a coincidently small additional side business.

all imho !

 

[Searush]

People are not using their cars as much as ever. Maybe people with loads of disposable income are, but the vast majority are reducing their journeys, selling their cars, using buses & bikes, especially in towns.

 

[jamesbell]

They have already made a hybrid in the usa,,,,http://www.evepic.com/water/

I believe their is a diesel/electric police boat on the Thames,,,something in my head says,,,Goring,,,,,

 

[rbcoomer]

The market will likely evolve more frugal engines, electric drive systems based around a diesel generator or new technologies will evolve. Rising prices may perhaps be the nudge it needs? Interesting timing however as I was chatting to a friend a few days ago about possible forms of hyrdo-magnetic drive... Remember that saltwater is an electrolyte! When on the sea, we're actually playing about in a giant battery.

 

[Divemaster1]

Interesting question really .....
But... if 'we' stop flying aircrafts and supporting a fuel guzzeling military machine (does anyone have stats on this), will actual demand drop, with positive impact on prices .... or will stockpiling re-start?

Worth knowing that my near 30 year old old turbocharged engines will run on, or combination of most stuff from Aviation fuel, via methanol to petrol (will need seal changes after a while on petrol), so that is no news, but in line with the "single fuel" requirement principle of a fair few of combat forces ... but emission levels may be compromised here...

 

[maby]

There's plenty of ways of reducing fuel consumption - but they all tend to involve going slower - something that mobo owners seem not to be prepared to consider!

 

[Firefly625]

People are not using their cars as much as ever. Maybe people with loads of disposable income are, but the vast majority are reducing their journeys, selling their cars, using buses & bikes, especially in towns.

spot on.

For what its worth I can give some market feedback on this. New cars are far more economical than they have ever been and some people are car sharing, using other forms of transport or just not driving so far as they did say 10 years ago, (obviously not everyone, but certainly some are).

To give you some perspective of this, part of our business is a fuel retailer, we are in a good location, 2 minutes from the M25 and as such have a busy site. 10 years ago we were selling 11.5m litres of fuel a year. In 2011 it was 3m litres down on that figure.

 

[rafiki_]

The powertrain brains in the auto market are currently planning on internal combustion engines being the majority in cars up to the end of this century. They will get considerably smaller and more efficient to run, using about half the fuel that an equivalent car uses today. There will be more EV's, and range extender hybrids, but we really need breakthrough technologies in storage density, and charging times for EV's to make sense other than in an urban environment.

Will any of this trickle down into boats? Of course. Hulls will become more efficient and maybe lighter in weight, however Newtonian laws still dictate power requirments for acceleration etc.

So our cost of boating will continue to increase, and individually we will have to decide how long we can sustain our hobbies.

For me, I'm looking to extend my hours of cruising this year, and hang the cost.

 

[henryf]

spot on.

For what its worth I can give some market feedback on this. New cars are far more economical than they have ever been and some people are car sharing, using other forms of transport or just not driving so far as they did say 10 years ago, (obviously not everyone, but certainly some are).

To give you some perspective of this, part of our business is a fuel retailer, we are in a good location, 2 minutes from the M25 and as such have a busy site. 10 years ago we were selling 11.5m litres of fuel a year. In 2011 it was 3m litres down on that figure.

But how much of that decrease is down to lower usage and how much down to the fact that you don't sell people's weekly shopping and give them a voucher for 5p off a litre as they're leaving the car park?

I think people's fuel buying habits have changed in the last 10 years.

Henry

 

[PCUK]

Oil isn't running out, huge new finds are always occurring. The UK has hundreds of years worth of coal that can be converted to diesel. Oil resources are a government con to make taxation seem right (but only for the idiots who believe all the green cr*p).

 

[ccscott49]

Oil isn't running out, huge new finds are always occurring. The UK has hundreds of years worth of coal that can be converted to diesel. Oil resources are a government con to make taxation seem right (but only for the idiots who believe all the green cr*p).

Well said that man, fed up with all this oil is running out ****. It may get expensive, but people must remember, the cost is 65% tax! Just how much would it cost if they reduced the Duty + VAT? The only way they can justify the Duty and tax is by making us all scared, the bogey man, Russian invasion, terrorism and now MMGW. All bogey men, designed to frighten us and keep us in line, load of b00ll0x.

 

[Jim@sea]

In 1973 when I had a boat with twin petrol volvo 140's, petrol was 3 gallons for a Pound.

 

[P4Paul]

What happens when the fuel just becomes too dear?

Just have to find a job that pays more..........

In all seriousness, we have just moved to a MoBo from a yacht so we have never bought huge volumes of fuel until now. The costs associated with volume purchasing fuel is something we have accepted as part of enjoying the increased freedom that owning a MoBo brings us. We are well aware of the costs but it is not a show stopper.

I am guessing that this years fuel costs will be substancially less than my berthing costs and I am more likely to be able to influence my berthing fees than the fuel price!

 

[ontheplane]

Oil isn't running out, huge new finds are always occurring. The UK has hundreds of years worth of coal that can be converted to diesel. Oil resources are a government con to make taxation seem right (but only for the idiots who believe all the green cr*p).

Ummm... NO

Oil IS running out - now I am not a tree hugging greenie, I DON'T believe that it's running out at the rate the Government tell us it is and that I agree the tax is appalling but it's a "green" tax so that makes it ok eh????

BUT... Oil IS running out - it took MILLIONS of years to make it - and it's not being produced at anything like the rate it's being used up, I think someone once told me that if the life of this planet was compressed into a year, man would have appeared in the last second, and the industrial revolution happened in the last millisecond... China's thirst for oil is growing rapidly as is India's and Brazil's....

Now I don't know how long we have left of easy to mine oil - maybe it's 10 years, 20, 30 or 50 I don't know - but I do know the Government will keep increasing the tax because we do nothing about it - so actually it doesn't really matter how long we have left getting the oil because eventually it will simply be priced right out of the common mans ability to pay for it.

That electric Hybrid boat looked impressive if it's figures are to be believed. And of course the electricity from the mains to recharge it has to come from somewhere! But that sort of thing could be the future certainly for sportsboats.

But cruisers? I think they are going to have to get a LOT more efficient. I think perhaps the semi displacement multihull might see an uplift in interest (I think they are more efficient) and yes, I see people moving to much slower speeds - but as most boaters also work (to pay for the habit) being able to get from A to B at 26knts is always going to be more attractive than getting there at 5knts.

I don't actually have the answers, I just wanted to canvas opinion on where this is going to go.

 

[Lakesailor]

being able to get from A to B at 26knts is always going to be more attractive than getting there at 5knts.

Or just enjoy the journey rather than the arriving. A yacht may cost £3 in fuel to do a 50 mile journey and take 12 hours.
The planing boat may do it in 2 hours but have cost £100 to do it. Does the extra 8 hours of sitting about, stationary, seem worth £97?


If you are time-limited, see it as a day on the boat rather than having to reach any particular destination.

It's the old MOBO/raggy argument. But apart from the sensation of speed, you can't argue the economics.

 

[ian38_39]

Is the eight hours of sitting doing nothing the eight hours of sailing extra to the mobo who had tied up, had a meal, taken a look around the place he has visited,while it is open, and the final 3 hours not being battered by a storm that has moved in earlier than expected. Or are you suggesting that the mobo would have nothing to do when he gets there. If you are try visiting before the place closrs, although to do this you will need a mobo