Weather - What weather?

[kunyang]

So there we were, Saturday, planned around the island, weather 6 at first 4 to 5 later, One reef in and off we set!

5 minutes later shaken out reef, and motoring out of Cowes at 10 to get through the needles at 12:00, it was going to be bad, force 6 wind against tide!

Motored passed Needles and then Coast Guard weather broadcast issued at 11:00hrs - 6 at first 4 to 5 later. I had a quick look around before putting in reef on my sail that still wasn't up. Nope, didn't feel anything let alone a 6, I waited in anticipation. a few cups of tea later, still motoring, I had an Epipheny, this isn't our universe but an alternate one where there is any weather. Super string theory in action!

Passed Sandown and low and behold, wind. Force 2, but at least I could sail into the darkness. Greay sail back as the breeze increased to a 3. Question, what has happened to the trusted inshore waters forcast as issued by the coast guard. Do they look out of the windows and have a laugh?

One day we may learn to ignore them, at our peril!

A bit fed up Dave


Now that Wonga are sponsoring Newcastle United, they will expect 100% from there palyers at the start of the season, at the end of the year they'll expect 3000

 

[Tomahawk]

We all know

A Met Office foreacast is always on the high side

That means when they issue a storm 10 later you can expect an eight at worst..
But once in a blue moon they get it exactly right .... and you find yourself in front of the beak....

 

[Contest1]

Same here, was out Sunday and forecast 4/5 never went above 3. Nice steady Westerly winds tho due to high pressure.
I used to worry about wind speeds until my mast head unit failed about 4 years ago, now I take more notice of sea state and wind direction.
On the East coast Ireland anything Westerly will be moderated closer to the coast while even an easterly breeze can kick up nasty seas close in.
Better to expect the worst but don,t cancel until you,ve had a look over the harbour wall.

 

[wotayottie]

The usual excuse is that they must show the worst that there will be in any given area over the period of the forecast or they might get sued. Personally I dont believe it. I reckon the do a forecast and then add a couple of beauforts just to make sure they dont do a Michael Fish.

Given up using the Met office. There are so many more reliable forecasts out there on the www

 

[Uricanejack]

As just said above in my expierience the forecast wind force was generaly higher than recieved. The reason as stated above they fore cast for the worst case in the area. I usualy sailed in Malin and Hebrides both large areas extending out into Atlantic. I usualy sailed inshore and expected less wind. I would guess this played a part in the desision making by the chap everyone is hot and bothered about last January. You can sure look a right berk if the met was right on for your particular location. I generaly opperate on the assumtion it is easier to take out a reef I didn't need than put one in I realy neaded. I listen to forcast for area and current conditions from light houses (oh nuts they demanned them all)