Weather School Musing...Chin Up for Easter Weekend!

[simonjk]

Hi,

It is all to easy to panic when you are seeing charts like these (http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-...-&VAR=pslv&HH=60&PANEL=1&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&WMO=) for the Easter weekend.

Yes, low pressure is close by, but the good news is that I don’t think that this next feature is going to be a vigorous as the one which has been troubling us today, and will give snow problems tonight across northern parts of the country.

For most of us the weekend will be profit that, when it comes to weather, what you see is not necessarily always what you get! Take a look at this chart

First impressions would be that low pressure is in the North Sea, the flow is a screaming northwesterly and that the weather conditions would be unsettled for all of the country.

Well, actually, it won’t be that bad. There will be showers, and the winds in the west may be a little fresh (F5) but for most of us the day is going to be one of sunshine and showers. Good visibility between the showers, moderate in them. Only eastern coasts may suffer with more continuous rain.

Southern parts of England and the English Channel should fare pretty well.

Of course, things could change, but I just didn’t want your heads to dip just yet. Those brownie points may well come in useful yet!

I’ll try to get the weekend forecast out to you tomorrow so that you can make the most of your planning.

Best wishes,
Simon

 

[Twister_Ken]

Dear Doctor,

Any varnishing weather in sight? Dry, double figure temps, not too breezy.

 

[simonjk]

How long do you need Ken?

 

[catalina1]

Thank Dr. S for the musing.
I was writing the weekend off.
There's Hope!!

 

[simonjk]

No, don't do that (yet)...hold on in there and we'll see what tomorrow brings!

Models are changing though, now thinking of rain running along the Channel coasts on Sunday.

Simon

 

[Chris_Robb]

No, don't do that (yet)...hold on in there and we'll see what tomorrow brings!

Models are changing though, now thinking of rain running along the Channel coasts on Sunday.

Simon

Hi Simon - Rang your guy yesterday re weather for crossing to Honfleur. He suggested it would not be sensible to go tonight (Tuesday), so postponed to Wednesday Night leaving Portsmouth at 18.30, arriving Honfleur around 10:00 Thursday - avoiding any April fools jokes - .

Wind from Weatheronline shows Westerlies 30knots, decreasing slowing through the night to 20 on the morning. Does this forecast look stable now?

Not worried by 30 knots aft the beam (course is 153 degrees) but would really like to know if it is likely to go SW!

 

[simonjk]

Hi Chris,

Oh yes, John said you had called. It's a really tricky one this.

The postpone decision was a good one, nasty conditions in the western Channel tonight.

Latest winds suggest:

Wed 6pm Portsmouth: W 25kt
Wed 9pm: WSW 20kt
Thu 0001: W 17kt
Thu 3am: WNW 17kt
Thu 6am: WNW 17-19kt
Thu 9am: W 18-20kt
Thu midday: SW 17kt

I have not been forecasting for the past few days, and so that forecast is done pretty well from cold.

There's pure model output on my website via http://www.weatherweb.net/uksail.htm at this location http://www.weatherweb.net/aviations/marine/southuk.txt and here http://www.weatherweb.net/aviations/marine/NFrance.txt

Hope that helps Chris?

Simon

 

[Chris_Robb]

Hi Chris,

Oh yes, John said you had called. It's a really tricky one this.

The postpone decision was a good one, nasty conditions in the western Channel tonight.

Latest winds suggest:

Wed 6pm Portsmouth: W 25kt
Wed 9pm: WSW 20kt
Thu 0001: W 17kt
Thu 3am: WNW 17kt
Thu 6am: WNW 17-19kt
Thu 9am: W 18-20kt
Thu midday: SW 17kt

I have not been forecasting for the past few days, and so that forecast is done pretty well from cold.

There's pure model output on my website via http://www.weatherweb.net/uksail.htm at this location http://www.weatherweb.net/aviations/marine/southuk.txt and here http://www.weatherweb.net/aviations/marine/NFrance.txt

Hope that helps Chris?

Simon

Simon - this helps enormously!

It will be a fast crossing with a lot of slop left over - must find the stougeron Hope the full moon will be visible, which makes a huge difference!

 

[fireball]

Simon - this helps enormously!

It will be a fast crossing with a lot of slop left over - must find the stougeron Hope the full moon will be visible, which makes a huge difference!

Moon was coming up around 8:15-8:30 tonight so you'll get a period of black even if it's a clear sky.

 

[Twister_Ken]

How long do you need Ken?

Two lots of one day, or one lot of two days. Please.

 

[blackdogsailing]

Channel crossing Friday

J.O.G. race to Cherbourg on Friday. We had planned to leave about the same time but with the current forecast looks like we will postpone until Saturday. A lot can happen in the next 48 hours however !! We are still hopeful.

Chris

 

[masterofnone]

Is it ME!

Why oh why, does the wind always seem to come from where I'm trying to get to! This w/e planned a little trip to Fecamp from Newhaven leaving Fri 0300. the weather info so far, doesn't point to this being the ideal timing. A tad too much S in them there winds.

 

[blackdogsailing]

Why oh why, does the wind always seem to come from where I'm trying to get to! This w/e planned a little trip to Fecamp from Newhaven leaving Fri 0300. the weather info so far, doesn't point to this being the ideal timing. A tad too much S in them there winds.

Fecamp is our second choice. if it does ease off a 'tad' then might see you there !

Chris

 

[Blueboatman]

Re Simonjk

First real hooley from the west for ages, or so it seems?

Now I know why I bought that weather disc from your good self- A really great tool for my lost braincells, fascinating, and something to do ' to address the weather' as a fallback plan this week!
Thanks Simon.

Ken. Great weather for prepping really thoroughly with wet n dry?