Weather forecasts

Ubergeekian

Ubergeekian

Well-Known Member
Joined
23 Jun 2004
Messages
9,904
Location
Me: Castle Douglas, SW Scotland. Boats: Kirkcudbri
www.drmegaphone.com
So here I am, thinking of a trip to Milford Haven to slap on some antifouling. Eight hours each way by car, so a bit disappointing if the weather is bad. Better check, then.

Metcheck:

Friday: 9 degrees all day, 84% cloud cover am reducing to 14% pm, 8mph gusting 10mph S am, 6mph gusting 7mph E pm.

Saturday: 8 - 10 degrees, 79% cloud am reducing to 14% pm, mist/fog late pm, 3mph gusting (sic) 4mph N am, calm pm.

Hmm. That looks pretty good. I'll just see what the opposition has to say

Met Office:

Friday: 7 - 8 degrees all day, sunny am, sunshine+cloud pm, 13mph gusting 25mph SSE am, 18mph gusting 28mph SE pm

Saturday: 8 degrees all day, sunny all day, 7mph gusting 18mph NNE.

So reasonable correspondence on the temperature and sun ... but wildly different on wind.

Bangs head slowly on table.
 
I've never found metcheck very good, and for wind I'd always use a "sailing" forecast, not the land one usually quoted. And definitely never believe the BBC's wind forecasts!
FWIW Theyr (subscription service) largely agrees with the met office: a gusty F4 on Friday, and early in the morning the next day then tailing off throughout Saturday to a calm by evening. No rain after tonight, cloudy but breaking up through Friday and less cloud on Saturday. Mind you, Theyr's not always that good when it comes to cloud and rain predictions. :)
 
Evadne said:
I've never found metcheck very good, and for wind I'd always use a "sailing" forecast, not the land one usually quoted. And definitely never believe the BBC's wind forecasts!
FWIW Theyr (subscription service) largely agrees with the met office: a gusty F4 on Friday, and early in the morning the next day then tailing off throughout Saturday to a calm by evening. No rain after tonight, cloudy but breaking up through Friday and less cloud on Saturday. Mind you, Theyr's not always that good when it comes to cloud and rain predictions. :)
Click to expand...

Thanks. I'm going to risk it and drive 300 miles south with a tin of antifouling. If it rains all Friday and Saturday they'll be able to hear me swearing in Lerwick.
 
Ubergeekian said:
So here I am, thinking of a trip to Milford Haven to slap on some antifouling. Eight hours each way by car, so a bit disappointing if the weather is bad. Better check, then.

Metcheck:

Friday: 9 degrees all day, 84% cloud cover am reducing to 14% pm, 8mph gusting 10mph S am, 6mph gusting 7mph E pm.

Saturday: 8 - 10 degrees, 79% cloud am reducing to 14% pm, mist/fog late pm, 3mph gusting (sic) 4mph N am, calm pm.

Hmm. That looks pretty good. I'll just see what the opposition has to say

Met Office:

Friday: 7 - 8 degrees all day, sunny am, sunshine+cloud pm, 13mph gusting 25mph SSE am, 18mph gusting 28mph SE pm

Saturday: 8 degrees all day, sunny all day, 7mph gusting 18mph NNE.

So reasonable correspondence on the temperature and sun ... but wildly different on wind.

Bangs head slowly on table.
Click to expand...



Didnt know anti fouling was dependant on accurate wind strength!!!:):):)
 
Hi,

Just a quickie.

Why not get the charts and produce your own forecasts? Metcheck are just showing you the raw output from computer models, and depending on where you got the forecast from the Met Office, they may be doing the same.

Shipping Forecast and Inshore waters are better as they are produced by a real person!

But, best thing to do is print out the synoptic chart and go for it yourself. It's far more satisfying!

have fun doing it, and if you have any questions, just ask here, I'd be happy to help.

Simon
 
Ubergeekian said:
NDH said:
Didnt know anti fouling was dependant on accurate wind strength!!!:):):)
Click to expand...

If you're trying to get two coats on in a fairly limited time on a not-terribly-warm day then a good wind to dry things is very useful.

As it turned out, the Met Office was right. Beautiful cloudless blue sky, and a reef or two's worth of wind, so I got all the antifouling done plus the hull cleaned and polished plus the blue stripe round the top repainted. Result!
Click to expand...
 
simonjk said:
Why not get the charts and produce your own forecasts? Metcheck are just showing you the raw output from computer models, and depending on where you got the forecast from the Met Office, they may be doing the same.
Click to expand...

For the same reason that I don't make my own antifouling or my own sails - both these things are theoretically possible, but I'm not convinced that I can do any better than the professionals.

Anyway if their forecasts are inaccurate doesn't it suggest that the data is bad? In which case I'm really not convinced that an amateur forecast from bad data will be more reliable than a professional forecast from bad data.

I enjoy your articles, but have never really been convinced that a bloke in a boat can do better than the Met Office when the pros are forecasting for a closely defined place (eg "Milford Haven"). It's certainly useful to be able to think intelligently about variations within larger areas (eg "Irish Sea").

I hope this doesn't sound ungrateful - it's not meant that way. I'm always happy to be proved wrong or convinced to change my mind!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Top