Weather Forecasts??

Jonny_H

Jonny_H

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Liveaboard - following the sun!
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3 weeks into our 'liveaboard' lifestyle and we find ourselves in Cork waiting for a 5 day window to cross Biscay. Earlier in the week we checked UGrib and Tuesday looked good, now Tuesday - Thursday next week look horrific!

We've struggled to find a good 5 day forecast online, does anyone have any good links we could use? Looks like we be here until mid next week at the earliest before we leave with the fronts we can see coming through!

Jonny
 
You could do a lot worse than phone Simon Keeling, tell him your route and he will do a forecast, you pay for the call at a premium rate but still cheap compared to the cost of "Talk to a forecaster" from the Met Office
 
Most Internet weather services get their forecasts from the Global Forecasting System model or one of the other models with no forecaster input at all. The 'gribs' are usually GFS as is Weatheronline, Buoyweather, etc.

To get a forecaster input you can use the three day forecast from Germany www.dwd.de http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/lang_de...24__MM__w__node,templateId=renderPrint.html for the Med, you will have to search for the Atlantic.

There is also the five day forecast via RTTY from Germany, Pinneburg. See Frank Singleton's site for all details.

Personally I always get at least one forecast that has been issued by a forecaster as well as looking at the outputs from the models.
 
Ugrib and all the other forecasts use the GFS forecasting system so all the forecasts will be very similar depending on which "run" they are currently using.

I have found uGrib to be excellent and you simply aren't going to get any better as the weather systems moving in off the Atlantic are most difficult to predict how fast and in what direction they will go.

For short range, Met Eirann is great for inshore but the shipping forecast is still my choice for finding out the sea state.

For long range I can't recommend anthing better than uGrib but if you aren't busy, feel free to check out my Weather Portal which lists the best of Marine and general weather forecasts. There are plenty of marine forecasting sites there to keep you going.

www.stronge.org.uk

Good cruising


Mark
 
If you change the weather forcaster because you dont like the forcast then you are doomed to a life of changing weather forcast's.
It's sailing , go with the flow or stay put that is what all this sailing marlarky is all about.
We use USGrib and are happy with what they have to say!
 
You have our sympathy and understanding. We began our own 'Livaboard Lifestyle' on 1st May 2003, it was a cold wet day and it rained for at least part of the day on 68 of the next 72 days as we dodged weather fronts in the Irish Sea and Western Isles!

It was a great apprenticeship though and the main thing we learnt, was 'hey, we're livaboards now, so tomorrow, next week, next month, whatever, it really doesn't matter, don't try to fight it, just sail when the weather suits'

This attitude is particularly important if it's Biscay that you're planning to play in next. /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif
 
Thanks all - very useful!

We spent a week in Abersoch / Pwllheli waiting for weather to come over to Ireland and now looks like another week or so waiting for weather to leave Cork. Really looking forward to getting south into the better weather!

We like UGrib - but as mentioned the forecasts change so quickly its scary - trying to pick a 5 day window isn't easy!

Looks like back end of the week at the earliest - oh well, can think of worse places to be stuck.

Thanks

Jonny
 
Those are the forecast areas used by Inmarsat. I've often thought that Inmarsat C is the least known/most forgotten weather delivery system. We have it and use it almost exclusively on long passages. The only downside is that the west atlantic comes in one huge area forecast and no forecast is given for areas with winds less than 20 knots (although those areas are delineated).
 
We got stuck in Kilmore Quay 6 weeks ago trying to get down to Cork and then over to La Coruna. Waited a week in KQ for the winds to move from F6 SW and then had a pretty bad sail to Cork. A week later after picking up crew perfect weather and we did the crossing in 3 days.

Just sit it out and wait. The synoptic charts are as good as anything.

Oh and when you do get to northern spain it is currently 25-30deg with wall to wall blue sky and no wind! The Oilies were packed away a month ago and it's now tea shirts and shorts (or less).

If you are bored with Cork - move onto Kinsale for a better choice of food.

My preferred wx site is magic seaweed.
 
Hi Jonny

As some have already said Frank Singelton's site is very good and full of resources.

Try the Spanish Met links he has. This is the table of sea area names the spanish use http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/areaspain.html

This is the Spanish Met forecast (use Google to translate, you can set a link in your bookmarks to do this on auto once it has been opened, but it doesn't take long to start understanding it in Spanish)
http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/maritima?opc1=1&opc2=1&datos=dat&zona=atl1

Also have a look at Frank's info on Met area 11 here http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/sea_area_changes.html

And his GMDSS links here http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/gmdss_links.html#gmdssetc


I know it's frustrating, but don't take the jump off until you have a good forecast and most importantly the sea has had a chance to die down. A good Biscay crossing is wonderful, a rough one is the pits. Take your time and wait it out.

If you can, go over to France to Cameret and wait it out there. Great town and plenty to see.

Good luck and see you soonish
 
You may well have tried it already but I tend to find xcweather.co.uk gives the most user friendly and reliable 5 day forecasts. Bearing in mind the forecast is an expectation at any point in time.

As it gives you the actual windspeed now it gives a useful indication of how probable the next few hours are.

We certainly do things that we would not using the official local forecasts. Ie taking advantage of a drop in the wind speed wneh it veers etc.

Windguru.com is a usefull double check.
 
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