franksingleton
Well-Known Member
Thread rebirth
Found this this morning. Not too bad for a 5 day.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=265
http://policlimate.com/verf/gfs_ecmwf_nh_f120.png
I would like to make a number of points from the useful input from Simon Keeling.
First, this very brief analysis confirms what I have said on a number of occasions ie that ECMWF do a little better than other forecasts. If the same data were available for the UK, they would come somewhere between the two. It also confirms one of my pieces of advice that it is a waste of time and effort for sailors to try to improve on predictions of the general pattern by, say, studying 500 hPa charts. Numerical weather prediction models the whole atmosphere. If you make a correct deduction from forecast 500hPa charts then you should, by definition, finish up with the same forecast surface winds etc as the computer.
Secondly, that does not mean that there is no room for human input into forecasts. There is scope for detail particularly on local conditions. That is where the human forecasters come in or where the experienced sailor can use his/her intelligence.
Thirdly, it is clear that weather situations vary in their degree of predictability. This is due partly to imperfections in the models, partly due to imperfections in the data and partly due to chaos in the atmosphere.
Finally, I have to comment on Simon’s reference to private sector weather firms. I do not deny that Simon does a good job. On a number of occasions I have recommended him as a provider of forecasts for a specific area or purpose. However, I must highlight his statement –
The infrastructure of meteorology is funded my national governments. They pay for observing systems including satellites, weather radar, land based observing networks, maintenance and collection of observations from ships and aircraft. They fund the global dedicated communications system that transfers weather data across the world virtually instantaneously. They fund development and operation of numerical weather prediction. They fund research into many aspects of meteorology generally either in-house or in universities. Without this input no independent forecaster could do anything of value.
There is a long running argument about private sector weather firms having access to output from National Met Services. Should they be able to use freely and make a profit from information provided by us as taxpayers? Or should they make a contribution to the global infrastructure? I could make arguments for both. However, in this country, HM Treasury thinking is that “Sectional interests should not benefit at the taxpayers’ expense.” You, I and Simon might not like it, but that is the situation. In practice, private firms get at no or little cost a great deal of the input necessary to them - funded, ultimately, by taxpayers.