Weather forecast not quite right

[kashurst]

Got well caught out today. I have been watching Windfinder for the past few days for a nice cruise. Today and next few days look spot on. First 23 miles the odd lump but all generally pretty good, no clouds so quite safe. Only 8 miles from Alicante suddenly get a force 5-6 from the east. White waves every where. Turned around and ran with it currently holed up in Santa Pola. Lovely marina. Hopefully tomorrow’s forecast will be nearer the mark.

 

[julians]

The forecaster i use reckons youre going to get 12-13 knots from the south tomorrow afternoon,but calm in the morning

 

[petem]

Kashurst, I see that Windfinder uses a single model (GFS). Might be worth considering PredictWind which uses two models (GFS and ECM). If the two models are different then the forecast can be less predictable.

As an example, PredictWind for Altea is showing 12kts of wind for GFS and 18kts for ECM @ 4pm today.

 

[kashurst]

Nope, it's finally died down, proper Levante wind took me by surprise. No harm done, bottling it and turning back was the safe thing to do. And a bonus. We haven't been to santa Pola for about three years. It's come on a long way. Redeveloped harbour front etc. Very nice, must be those horizon FD 85 s ruining the area.

 

[franksingleton]

Kashurst, I see that Windfinder uses a single model (GFS). Might be worth considering PredictWind which uses two models (GFS and ECM). If the two models are different then the forecast can be less predictable.

As an example, PredictWind for Altea is showing 12kts of wind for GFS and 18kts for ECM @ 4pm today.

That is not correct although PW would like you to think it is. In effect, it is a 2- member ensemble. ECMWF uses a 50-member ensemble. GFS runs a 20-member one. Your two, or even PW’s 4-member one could as equally be grouped around the eventual outcome as around a poor forecast. Even if 3 are similar and one adrift, it tells you nothing of value. All an ensemble does is to give a measure of uncertainty.

See http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Ensembles. Better to use a probability forecast from FNMOC or the NOAA OPC.