WARNING - DANGEROUS MEDICANE FORMING

[BurnitBlue]

Thanks Vic. Time will tell. The weather forecasts over the last two weeks have been giving Thursday 17th September as the date the heat will drop from 35C to around 28. This forecast has been so consistant through all channels that I have been planning some interior electric cable routing starting that date (today actually.). Never a peep about a Medicane just light winds and a thunderstorm.
When I sailed and raced around Cyprus some years ago, the locals used what they called the Coptic Weather Calender. Apparantly it is quite accurate because weather patterns repeat year on year out give or take a day or two. There was a printed sheet that said everything a mariner needed to know.

 

[sailaboutvic]

I personally wouldn't called this a Medicane , I think the one we had some years back where a lot of us including myself got caught out in , That the word Medicane is use as soon as a new storm blew up .
Maybe it's a good thing as it get people especially newbie more awhere what may happen , maybe a bad because it get everyone on edge .
Hopefully it will die away and not cause too much problems for the island south of Greece .
Good luck with your work , I be starting my winter jobs in about two months time .

 

[Yngmar]

It's (unofficially) Medicane Cassilda: Mediterranean Medicane Centre Wiki

I don't think there is any other (official) authority yet, but then the only difference is they haven't incorporated!

Thanks Vic, heard from Sarah & Dave, they've made it into the big oil harbour at Augusta safely.

Looks like Corfu will get mostly spared and the very safe "green hole" Ormos Valtou north of Igoumenitsa has only 25 knot gusts forecast last I checked - that's where we'd be heading if we hadn't left the area. Excellent holding there (thick mud set through with old roots) and no waves will find you. Other options are Pagania a bit further north, or Petalas near the entry to the gulf of Patras. Also a couple places in the gulf of Preveza, best is probably Agios Markos near Vonitsa, but you need lots of chain as it's a bit deep - great wind shelter from forested hills all around though. Vliho I'd avoid out of concern for the many poorly kept boats there dragging.

Good luck everyone!

 

[grafozz]

It's (unofficially) Medicane Cassilda: Mediterranean Medicane Centre Wiki

I don't think there is any other (official) authority yet, but then the only difference is they haven't incorporated!

Thanks Vic, heard from Sarah & Dave, they've made it into the big oil harbour at Augusta safely.

Looks like Corfu will get mostly spared and the very safe "green hole" Ormos Valtou north of Igoumenitsa has only 25 knot gusts forecast last I checked - that's where we'd be heading if we hadn't left the area. Excellent holding there (thick mud set through with old roots) and no waves will find you. Other options are Pagania a bit further north, or Petalas near the entry to the gulf of Patras. Also a couple places in the gulf of Preveza, best is probably Agios Markos near Vonitsa, but you need lots of chain as it's a bit deep - great wind shelter from forested hills all around though. Vliho I'd avoid out of concern for the many poorly kept boats there dragging.

Good luck everyone!

The storm is heading for Kefalonia and Zakynthos 65 knots forecast see Windfinder.com / Greece/maps
Serious storm , worst since I have seen here in 14 years .

 

[AndrewB]

Meteo Greece (meteo.gr) is giving a max of F3 for Corfu over the next 24 hours. It doesn't sound like it will be serious anywhere around Corfu and Paxos.

Kefalonia though, thunderstorm this (Thurs) afternoon, wind rising to F8 by dawn Friday, gusts to 50 kts.

 

[Mistroma]

It's (unofficially) Medicane Cassilda: Mediterranean Medicane Centre Wiki

I don't think there is any other (official) authority yet, but then the only difference is they haven't incorporated!

Thanks Vic, heard from Sarah & Dave, they've made it into the big oil harbour at Augusta safely.

Looks like Corfu will get mostly spared and the very safe "green hole" Ormos Valtou north of Igoumenitsa has only 25 knot gusts forecast last I checked - that's where we'd be heading if we hadn't left the area. Excellent holding there (thick mud set through with old roots) and no waves will find you. Other options are Pagania a bit further north, or Petalas near the entry to the gulf of Patras. Also a couple places in the gulf of Preveza, best is probably Agios Markos near Vonitsa, but you need lots of chain as it's a bit deep - great wind shelter from forested hills all around though. Vliho I'd avoid out of concern for the many poorly kept boats there dragging.

Good luck everyone!

Sounds as if it is doing what I expected in my first "guess". I would also have headed for Igoumenitsa Creek as I mentioned earlier and try to get there very early. Good spot to hole up but would expect it to fill up quickly in normal times. My other suggestion was Petalas Island instead of Vlycho but only if I was well South and no chance of getting somewhere better. I've never tried Petalas Island in a really bad blow and the wind will howl done from North but there's plenty of room and shallow at the top end. Glad I'm not having to worry about that this year for a change.

 

[BurnitBlue]

Just recieved an Emergency Alert via SMS for high winds and floods in Ionian Islands. Stay out of basements, avoid flying objects etc. Looks like Greece is on the ball. Strange though I only got the alert on my Tablet not on my Phone. I gave them the phone number ONLY on the location form. I am beeing watched oooor.

 

[Yngmar]

Just recieved an Emergency Alert via SMS for high winds and floods in Ionian Islands. Stay out of basements, avoid flying objects etc. Looks like Greece is on the ball. Strange though I only got the alert on my Tablet not on my Phone. I gave them the phone number ONLY on the location form. I am beeing watched oooor.

Greeks use the cell broadcast system for those emergency alerts. It's not related to your phone number and doesn't need one, each mobile network tower simply sends the message to every device connected to it at the time. It's quite fun in the taverna, as all phones beep or vibrate at the same moment and everyone pulls theirs out and looks at it

Cell Broadcast - Wikipedia

 

[GHA]

One boat abandoned so fr according to a report on Boat watch on facebook

 

[sailaboutvic]

Yes Ozzie boat crew now on the way to Turkey .

 

[sailaboutvic]

It be good if we don't all start to spec why they abandon the boat when it look fine .

 

[BurnitBlue]

Greeks use the cell broadcast system for those emergency alerts. It's not related to your phone number and doesn't need one, each mobile network tower simply sends the message to every device connected to it at the time. It's quite fun in the taverna, as all phones beep or vibrate at the same moment and everyone pulls theirs out and looks at it

Cell Broadcast - Wikipedia

Thanks for the explanation. My neighbour boat people have just arrived from Holland about an hour ago. I was wondering why they didn't erupt from the hatch yelling in anguish. Not a great welcome so i was watching to reassure them.

 

[jordanbasset]

Looking at videos/pictures from the Friends of Lefkas Marina site on facebook it is looking very bad at Agia Efimia, Kefalonia, some boats sank/washed up
Not sure you can see unless you are a member of the group but will give the link anyway
Facebook Groups

 

[Davy_S]

Agia efimia here.
Agia Efimia has another tough night - The Kefalonia Pulse

 

[Yngmar]

Agia Effimia (Kefalonia):

Zakynthos:

 

[Davy_S]

Agia Efimia.

 

[Chris_Robb]

Some owners need to understand that any old harbour is not necessarily good news! With Agia Efimia the exposure is bloody obvious !

Insurance to rise again because of some idiots? I can understand yachts out of reach of land not getting the forecasts we all rely on the internet and 1 week forecasts perhaps too much.

 

[Mistroma]

Some owners need to understand that any old harbour is not necessarily good news! With Agia Efimia the exposure is bloody obvious !

Insurance to rise again because of some idiots? I can understand yachts out of reach of land not getting the forecasts we all rely on the internet and 1 week forecasts perhaps too much.

Yes, we heard about TV interviews on quay at Porto Heli in 2018 the day before that Medicane went right over. Charter crews tied up there had no clue bad weather was on the way. I was amazed that the owners had not been in contact to warn them.

We anchored in the bay and rode it out. Others went to Astros and thought they would be safe behind the harbour wall. Bad idea and I was told that the wall needed to be 3m higher. It looks solid and quite high but waves came right over and dumped on boats moored "safely" behind.

 

[franksingleton]

As someone far away but who knows the area I have been watching this storm with some interest. It is a tribute to the scientists and technicians who have done so much work on weather modelling that this was forecast, pretty well, as early as Tuesday 00 UTC, possibly earlier. As such a small feature in a difficult area, it is hardly surprising that forecasts differed slightly between each other and between successive runs. The GFS upon which many “non-official” models depend, was as good as any. ECMWF and ICON-EU, likewise did well.
Moral - ignore severe weather forecast shown on numerical weather models at your peril.

 

[BobnLesley]

...looking very bad at Agia Efimia, Kefalonia, some boats sank/washed up...

Why the heck would anyone with even half a brain go anywhere near Ay Efimia with that forecast?