Vendée Globe 2016-2017

Remora models exposes the fickleness ahead and for the next 24 or 48 hours suggest that Armel will come out on top to the tune of 20 miles - but at least Alex has whittled a fair chunk back.
 
BigJoe said:
Looks like Le Cleac'h might have a problem, as he's heading east in light breeze but almost stopped

This is going to the wire....................................
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Armel said officially that he was on Figaro mode. Meaning he will be (proactively) sailing where his opponent will. So that means that normally he should keep ahead of Alex. It's not anymore about taking the best path, but about taking the same path, where he believes (rightfully or not) that he will keep the lead.
 
Fascinating! It's common knowledge that forecasters find it far more difficult - despite the multimillion $ supercomputers - to forecast light winds accurately, especially so when the sensors are sparse. In the hyper-competitive world of French solo racing, those who have the better skills at 'reading the runes' emerge over and again.

Armel le Clea'ch is one of those.

For a while, the wind gods are letting him play in their court. I suspect that he will lose little - far less than Thomson - in fickle breeze. When the steady wind blow again, a different game.....

I reckon that, if he can keep a differential of about 100nm and stay between Sables d' and Thomson, then he will take the trophy. However, Thomson must be thinking about a 'split', and if he is close enough, gambles on such and it works, then he could well come home first.

Either way, it looks like superb competition to the end.
 
zoidberg said:
Fascinating! It's common knowledge that forecasters find it far more difficult - despite the multimillion $ supercomputers - to forecast light winds accurately, especially so when the sensors are sparse. In the hyper-competitive world of French solo racing, those who have the better skills at 'reading the runes' emerge over and again.

Armel le Clea'ch is one of those.

For a while, the wind gods are letting him play in their court. I suspect that he will lose little - far less than Thomson - in fickle breeze. When the steady wind blow again, a different game.....

I reckon that, if he can keep a differential of about 100nm and stay between Sables d' and Thomson, then he will take the trophy. However, Thomson must be thinking about a 'split', and if he is close enough, gambles on such and it works, then he could well come home first.

Either way, it looks like superb competition to the end.
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Fates willing, and baring unfortunate accidents, it is going to be an amazing final few days. Hardly believable after 69 days!
Of course I want Alex to steal it, but all credit to Armel.
 
Like I said . . . . . .#986


BobPrell said:
The basic strategy of match racing as leader, is to stay between the next guy and the finish. Do not get too far left or right.

In a very long race, where wind can be very different on different parts of the course, it is probably not a good idea to get too far ahead either. The leader might fall into a wind hole that the follower avoids.
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Sandy said:
Yes in another few years.

This is the one sailing race I take any interest in, but with the addition of foils it has rather spoilt the event.
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It certainly has "split the fleet" and I feel somewhat sorry for the "also rans" still battling away down at the bottom when so much interest is, naturally, on the winners.

But it is an exciting last few days in prospect, then I can settle down and follow Rich Wilson, Didac, Conrad et al.

COME ON ALEX
 
NormanB said:
Well situation is much the same this morning, but I feel sure there is nowt much wrong with Alex's boat the data set captured him doing 20+ knots at GMT. With 6 days remaining Alex needs to be covering 45 to 50 miles more each day than Armel to see him in his 'wing mirrors' at the finish. Remora suggests 18th January for the leader to finish.

Snipped.
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Re clipping 45-50 miles per day ........
Well he managed to achieve that 12th to 13th and 13th to 14th Jan with the lead now down to 127 miles (ish).
The next 24 hours are going to be hard work in light airs for them both - again.

Remora suggests that Armel and Alex should cross the finish line in daylight on the 19th. (Maybe before midday)
 
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