Vendée Globe 2016-2017

Robert Wilson said:
21:00hrs
He's clawed back 22nm in 4hrs.:encouragement:
And the holes in the wind might help him even more.

But there again, Armel knows all this ................
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He's steadily losing ground now 566 miles behind and was sailing 6knts slower.
I think his cheerful posting yesterday was down to realising that the chase is effectively finished and out of his hands so a huge stress relieving moment. He will of course carry on racing doing his utmost.
 
petehb said:
He's steadily losing ground now 566 miles behind and was sailing 6knts slower.
I think his cheerful posting yesterday was down to realising that the chase is effectively finished and out of his hands so a huge stress relieving moment. He will of course carry on racing doing his utmost.
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I think you're right.
It's the luck of the draw, holes in wind, broken foil or whatever. The same could happen to anyone of them - even Armel......

Heroes, all of them. I wish them all safe landfall.


But I'm not giving-up on Alex just yet. You never know :encouragement:
 
Without ploughing through all the rules and stuff, how do the skippers go on with weather forecasting? I assume they have forecast synoptics at least but are they allowed standard public domain forecasts only or private forecasts as well? Armel seems to be ahead of the game in terms of routing, he almost always seems to be in the right place at the right time.
 
I think they will have routing software and access to all published data, pretty certain that they will not have external routing advice as that would be outside help.
Armel has a reputation of reading weather patterns and making the right choices, I am sure Alex was forced into some of his choices in an attempt to overcome the foil problem and they just didn't work out for him.
 
petehb said:
I think they will have routing software and access to all published data, pretty certain that they will not have external routing advice as that would be outside help.
Armel has a reputation of reading weather patterns and making the right choices, I am sure Alex was forced into some of his choices in an attempt to overcome the foil problem and they just didn't work out for him.
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External weather routing is forbidden. The ethos of the race is to have no outside assistance, but they're in touch with their shore teams.
AleC has seemingly made the better routing decisions consistently, but AT was in the invidious position of having to either follow lamely, or take a different course and hope it paid off. Sadly it hasn't, and they're now in different weather systems. The damage is a big factor, of course. He's lost lots of miles from that alone.
 
StormNorm said:
External weather routing is forbidden. The ethos of the race is to have no outside assistance, but they're in touch with their shore teams.
AleC has seemingly made the better routing decisions consistently, but AT was in the invidious position of having to either follow lamely, or take a different course and hope it paid off. Sadly it hasn't, and they're now in different weather systems. The damage is a big factor, of course. He's lost lots of miles from that alone.
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As I said and he's bleeding more miles now.
 
petehb said:
As I said and he's bleeding more miles now.
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AT and the boat were good enough to win, q.v. storming back to the lead north of the equator. AT and slightly-broken boat seemed good enough, but perhaps weren’t, not quite. Podium in broken boat would be pretty good! Still a long way to go. And lots more other races to win or lose after that.
 
Considering no one has passed the cabo de Hornos we seem to have written off the sea and nature as having any part in this race......... as if man is invincible.
 
petehb said:
He's steadily losing ground now 566 miles behind and was sailing 6knts slower.
I think his cheerful posting yesterday was down to realising that the chase is effectively finished and out of his hands so a huge stress relieving moment. He will of course carry on racing doing his utmost.
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The fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.

Lots of things can happen.
 
Racecruiser said:
GrahamD said:
The fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.

Absolutely - she's hasn't
finished at the previous gig yet! Fat lady refs often made on our boat racing cross-channel and that's a tiny proportion of the distance left for Alec and Armel .........
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The distance he's behind is 600 miles and increasing at every update that's 9% of the remaining distance. Whilst anything is possible including Armel having some sort of problem realistically it's unlikely coupled with Armel can now afford to sail conservatively whilst Alex has to push to the limit he's unlikely to have a problem. I take no pleasure in it but you have to be realistic Alex only chance is a major problem on Banque Populaire. I know where my money would be.
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Agreed, and I wouldn't want to wish ill on anyone in this race.

By my simple calculations using the data on AT's statistics page:

Armel has c.7325nm to travel and has been averaging 15.5 kts which means he has about 19.7 days to the finish line, assuming he follows the optimum route.

AT has c.7925 nm to go and if he's to catch Armel he would need to average 16.8 kts whereas as to date he's averaged 15 kts.

Still a great feat by all concerned.
 
Whatever.
It is really interesting to monitor the moves and decisions and try and 'armchair guess' the next moves, the resulting effects and of course the changing pressure systems.
It brightens my day when I see there is a video update from Alex - he is a real character that's for sure.
Can he win? Can he complete the course? I do not know but I am absolutely sure Alex will give it his best shot.
Armel has been both masterful and fortuitous, it seems, in keeping on the beneficial side of the weather systems on the Pacific side of the Horn.
I think the Atlantic side of the Horn will provide more complex weather for all.
 
Yes Armel is virtually at the Horn with Alex 735 miles behind:eek: thats a +100 mile loss in less than 24 Hrs and going 6knts slower. It must be mentally very difficult to carry on pushing hard seeing his target always moving ahead and knowing there is little that he can do to make up the ground.
 
petehb said:
Yes Armel is virtually at the Horn with Alex 735 miles behind:eek: thats a +100 mile loss in less than 24 Hrs and going 6knts slower. It must be mentally very difficult to carry on pushing hard seeing his target always moving ahead and knowing there is little that he can do to make up the ground.
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Anything could happen, but I suppose Alex will be determined enough to keep the pack from snapping at his heels. I think he will be in "preservation mode" now, making sure he keeps boat and soul in good fettle, while doing everything he can to keep Armel with a couple of days at most. Not an easy task.
 
Apart from AT I'm also following Didac Costa. He's made incredible progress when you take into account his restart and the ground he lost. It will be interesting to see whether he can make up ground on the pack including Roura, Wilson, Amedeo etc. He's over 1000 miles behind at present but watch this space!
 
Roger52 said:
Apart from AT I'm also following Didac Costa. He's made incredible progress when you take into account his restart and the ground he lost. It will be interesting to see whether he can make up ground on the pack including Roura, Wilson, Amedeo etc. He's over 1000 miles behind at present but watch this space!
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A +1 for Didac. I keep flicking back to him. Great effort.
 
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