Urban myths

I suppose we need to remind ourselves we're talking about gradient winds. Clearly thermal and wind caused by geographical features are frequently unforecast. (Perhaps always in tbe latter case.)
I don’t think that gusts and squalls quite count as caught out. Our boat’s record was 57knots true wind experienced when sailing past a Swedish island. Although it was a breezy day, I only noticed the reading at the end of the sail to see what had been recorded. I have from time to time found myself in winds in the mid-30s or more while sailing but these generally only lasted for maybe twenty minutes and not enough time for the seas to build up.
 
We - aka 'you, too' - have a tendency to persuade ourselves 'That doesn't happen around here.' Self-deception....

"The great storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in England, France, and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast."


I was asleep in my bungalow - Crowthorne, near Bracknell - when that struck. The noise of the wind 'booming' again and again woke me and, afeard of flying debris lest the picture windows blew in with showers of shards, I rolled onto the floor pulling the mattress over me. And there I cowered....
 
I don’t think that gusts and squalls quite count as caught out. Our boat’s record was 57knots true wind experienced when sailing past a Swedish island. Although it was a breezy day, I only noticed the reading at the end of the sail to see what had been recorded. I have from time to time found myself in winds in the mid-30s or more while sailing but these generally only lasted for maybe twenty minutes and not enough time for the seas to build up.

True, I've anchored by mountains and had shocking katabatic winds that lasted all night, swapping direction 180 degrees half way through, IIRC. Agree that doesn't count as a gale and even if it did it wouldn't be fair to describe it at unforecasted. It's just the quid pro quo if you like Mountains.
 
We - aka 'you, too' - have a tendency to persuade ourselves 'That doesn't happen around here.' Self-deception....

"The great storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in England, France, and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast."

I was asleep in my bungalow - Crowthorne, near Bracknell - when that struck. The noise of the wind 'booming' again and again woke me and, afeard of flying debris lest the picture windows blew in with showers of shards, I rolled onto the floor pulling the mattress over me. And there I cowered....
'Great storms' have always been around and there are accounts of them from a couple of hundred years ago, though I accept concern about the effects of climate change on their frequency. I doubt if many yachtsmen were out in '87, but in any case it would have been obvious that severe weather was likely. I remember watching the famous Fish forecast which mentioned a storm crossing northern France and, you may or may not accept my word for it, I remember thinking "but what if it swings north?". For that reason I wasn't entirely surprised to be woken by a deep roaring noise and looking out to see a large mature cypress in the garden leaning over at 90 degrees, from which it actually recovered, unlike large swathes of woodland around us in Hertfordshire.
 
So I expected our weather forecast anomaly to resolve itself as we got closer to the actual time, as the different weather models generally converge rapidly as the time guests closer and previous model data is replaced by actuals - but just 9 hours away and GFS is still predicting a calm 4 knots gusting 6kt, while UKMO is warning of a strong 22kts gusting 38kt.
Having spent most of the past 5 or 6 years studying multiple forecasts each day, this is a very unusual quirk
IMG_1725.jpeg
 
Looking at the wind maps on PW, GFS is showing the centre of the low as being much larger and calmer than the other forecasts. It's an interesting anomaly, and I'm curious to know which forecast turns out to be correct
 
The X channel was a doddle. Twin brother and I were planning a weekend Solent Cruise together in October. In the event we saw the Forecast, Gentle Nly Friday night, SW gale Sat night Sunday. So we scratched the Solent and went over to Cherbourg Friday night then got up at 5am to come back on the Sunday. When we left it was blowing 55kts at Chi met.

It was a bit daunting setting off knowing that once we left we'd be committed - there would be no going back, but with the smallest foresail and the deepest main reef we flew along surfing all the way. Fantastic, never grinned so much in all my life.

Then there was the time we saw 13.5kts TTW in a Moody 31 surfing on massive waves in a following Gale from Largs to Holy Loch.

I love charter boats. 😁
 
That's the view from Practical Sailor magazine.

Me, I rely on a lengthy peruse of the clouds above and around - and a thoughtful inspection of my shriveled piece of ould Druid seaweed on a string. Works for me....

You?
Only dinghy experience so far. I can remember a course in Wayfarers on Loch Tay in pretty big winds which was quite fun, though of course the instructors were in charge. In my own boat, with no rescue cover, I always chickened out of even slightly bad weather, since a capsize out in The Forth seemed to have obvious death potential.

When/if I get the Trident in the water it might eventually be appropriate to go looking for it, if there's a low fetch location/topology where one could duck out again relatively quickly if its too much. I'll seek local advice on that
 
Headlands , overfalls and spring, weather going tides ..
Putting those three in the mix can change a brisk summers day beat into something more challenging!
Yet the forecast is irrelevant to local factors
 
Only dinghy experience so far. I can remember a course in Wayfarers on Loch Tay in pretty big winds which was quite fun, ……
My late father claimed to have been capsized in a Wayfarer on Loch Tay by the engine exhaust from a very low flying jet, which used to be a common sight flying very close to the water.
(They are not covered by the forecast.)
 
Looking at the wind maps on PW, GFS is showing the centre of the low as being much larger and calmer than the other forecasts. It's an interesting anomaly, and I'm curious to know which forecast turns out to be correct
Well it certainly wasn’t the flat calm this morning. Tucked in under a cliff very well sheltered but very variable, so can’t quite be sure of wind strength or direction - though the TWO cruise ships anchored a bit further out suggest SW.
So damp ./ misty can’t see how windy it is further out, but certainly breezy rather than calm.
Interestingly this morning XcWeather changed its tune and joined the windier forecasts - but PredictWind GFS was still light winds
 
My main source of weather forecasts is the Met Office app. When it says something like 9kts sustained and 25kts gust, I work on the assumption that the gusts are likely to be unpredictable, and may be 10 knots either side of the forecast value. (Usually on the plus side when I'm trying to come alongside or pick up my mooring )
 
A prominent meteorologist shocked his pro colleagues - and the the rest of us - at a joint RMetSoc/RIN meeting in So'ton some time back, when he admitted publicly that 'Met Office statistics show clearly that, if you forecast for tomorrow what you actually have today, that would be right more often than any of the extremely costly numerical models in use.'

The silence was deafening as the implications sank in!

:oops:

I've often wondered if it would serve me/us better if I acquired a printout of yesterday's Actuals and used that to guide my decisions re coming and going....

:cool:
 
My late father claimed to have been capsized in a Wayfarer on Loch Tay by the engine exhaust from a very low flying jet, which used to be a common sight flying very close to the water.
(They are not covered by the forecast.)
Presumably a Buccaneer, and likely had to climb from its usual cruising altitude to avoid him...
 
A prominent meteorologist shocked his pro colleagues - and the the rest of us - at a joint RMetSoc/RIN meeting in So'ton some time back, when he admitted publicly that 'Met Office statistics show clearly that, if you forecast for tomorrow what you actually have today, that would be right more often than any of the extremely costly numerical models in use.'

The silence was deafening as the implications sank in!

:oops:

I've often wondered if it would serve me/us better if I acquired a printout of yesterday's Actuals and used that to guide my decisions re coming and going....

:cool:
That is SO funny ; absolutely GOAT as kids would say today If I understand correctly (Greatest Of All Time).

I don’t trust the Met office reports at all since experience had shown them to be so faulty so I use other websites or apps that have proved more reliable.

The seaweed may not be a joke if based upon science.

“Mares tails” or whatever also proved accurate (when I used to remember it and see it).

Spider webs in rigging in morning also proved accurate forecast.
 
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Not uncommon around the bottom end of the Sound of Jura, when a largish exercise is on. One might think they are using a boat's sails to screen a 550knot sneaky approach....
 
Not uncommon around the bottom end of the Sound of Jura, when a largish exercise is on. One might think they are using a boat's sails to screen a 550knot sneaky approach....

It wasn't low enough to generate noticeable wind but a military jet wiggled it's wings in greeting at me as it flew very low along Loch Ness. So they are aware of yachts IMHO.
 
It wasn't low enough to generate noticeable wind but a military jet wiggled it's wings in greeting at me as it flew very low along Loch Ness. So they are aware of yachts IMHO.
Couldn't have been trying....
One of the sports 'back in the day' was to identify, during a NATO exercise, where the commander's staff tents were ( maps, tables, radio operators, several clean LandRovers) and fly over/through low enough to blast the tents off their pegs... and maps, tables, and staff officers scattered to the four winds. Of course, they didn't ever get your tail number.... :LOL:
 
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