Tropical Storm GRACE - 600kms NE Azores

lenseman

lenseman

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Quite strange how that sprang up, there wasn't even a sign of a tropical depression in that area yesterday pm. Shows how one could get caught out very quickly I guess!
 
GRACE is a most unusual storm. It has been lurking about in the eastern Atlantic since 18 September as Tropical Cyclone EIGHT but is dissipated and broke up moving towards the north.

It has now reformed, albeit for only possibly 24 hours or so and formed into GRACE with a strange track towards the North East.

It will effect Biscay and the Western Approaches even after it is downgraded but for the time being, it is quite a violent depression for this time of year, in this particular part of the NE Atlantic and with this very strange track! :confused:
 
lenseman said:
GRACE is a most unusual storm. It has been lurking about in the eastern Atlantic since 18 September as Tropical Cyclone EIGHT but is dissipated and broke up moving towards the north.

It has now reformed, albeit for only possibly 24 hours or so and formed into GRACE with a strange track towards the North East.

It will effect Biscay and the Western Approaches even after it is downgraded but for the time being, it is quite a violent depression for this time of year, in this particular part of the NE Atlantic and with this very strange track! :confused:
Click to expand...

'Ocean Passages For The World' and other Admiralty Publications show a tangled network of 'strange tracks' of NE Atlantic ex-TRS meanders. One such gave 'Suhaili' a through pasting, AIR, and nearly sunk her.

This one has weakened, re-formed and re-invigorated. It may do so again before it's gone away, and I'm always wary where two 'centres' can rotate around each other in the Western Approaches, dragging in extra energy..... as happened 30 years and 2 months ago.


MetFrance.jpg


and later, on a UKMO synoptic chart.....

Tuesday.jpg



Here's the US output, which infers the disturbance is headed right into the Western Channel:

US-NCEP.jpg




Also of note are the suggestions for next Thursday, of a short-lived High with likely slack pressure gradient and light winds ( sea fog overnight? ).....

Thurs.jpg




That is swiftly followed, according to Bracknells NWP systems, by strong winds up the Celtic and Irish Seas on Friday....

Friday.jpg




It all bears watching, if one is recovering or positioning a boat, or looking - as some are - to cross Biscay in the next few days.

:)
 
Here's what the US Ocean Prediction Centre were giving earlier last evening...

OPC05.jpg


Note the symbol for the extra-Tropical Storm, and its predicted movement in the info block.

Note also the subsidiary 'centre', L 992, expected to move round in the anti-clockwise flow. Should that 'Secondary' deepen and become vigorous, violent cross-seas and winds in Biscay/Fitzroy, Sole, Plymouth and Fastnet could be the result. It bears watching with caution.

:)
 
It's a pup though, isn't it? I've just seen that Super Typhoon melor is about to strike Japan, with gusts to 195 mph.

How many reefs do you put in for that one?
 
MoodyNick said:
Bilbo, in the info block to which you refer, the bottom line says

wotsatmean?
Click to expand...

My understanding of that is that the forecaster - who moderates the Numerical Weather Prediction programme raw output - expects what's left of the energy, activity, identity of the ex-TRS 'disturbance' to be absorbed by a more active feature - in this case, a cold front predicted to catch it up and 'swallow it'.....by the time indicated in the InfoBox.

That's to be considered as ONE possibility. Speak to a seasoned forecaster when his manager isn't listening, and he will likely tell you of the other possibilities that the NWP programme didn't go for. Sometimes, one of those happens ( like the '79 Fastnet storm ) and we get it in the neck! It pays to be aware of possible other developments - such as my arrowed interest in a potential 'secondary' development - and consider the implications if those come to pass.

It is VIP to keep track of when analysis and forecast charts were issued, and what Validity Time(s) are indicated. It's all too easy to be looking at a forecast chart that's 5 days old, when a fresher one is available .....or even a forecast chart 'time/dated' for yesterday, when the world has already moved on.

:)
 
This relatively small TRS is not as harmless as it may look. On occasion these miniature storms form a revolving dumbell with another area of low pressure nearby. When these two are combined the effect is many times what would be expected.:eek:
 
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