Tidal Surge this week

Greg2

Greg2

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I have had a warning through to say that a tidal surge is anticipated on the East Coast during the Srping tides next week. The risk is between 24th and 27th November with the optimum time for a surge equal to that experienced in December 2013 being Thursday morning. Extensive damage to coastal areas is possible. Well worth making sure that you have plenty of slack in mooring lines if you aren't on a pontoon berth.
 
My Notices to Mariners service had already set out the natural 19 year astronomical cycle via the Port of London and Medway in weeks 39 and 40 (http://www.crossingthethamesestuary.com/page9.html and the Temporary Notices list); Harwich Haven haven't listed it. For the November springs are not the 19th year astronomical cycles but it may well be a consequence of high wind. On the other hand the BBC TV weather on Countryfile talked about the potential for south-east winds later this week - which will be good if it keeps out of the north. Of course Calais closed the harbour yesterday for the ferries because of the strong winds from the north which would have had an impossible fetch at high water. Several years ago early November we were on a ferry to Calais in the surge towards HW from the north and the Ferry had to hove-to for about an hour and a half before we could enter harbour - and it was still pretty lively.

So note the next HAT on the exceptional astronomical 19yr cycle are on 25th to 27th December! So with some northerly gales that would be potentially very serious.

This is the only Environment Agency current warning for the EC:

We are currently experiencing high river levels on the Broads due to natural tide locking caused by the high water at Great Yarmouth. This Flood Alert will remain in place until river levels have decreased. We are continuing to monitor the situation.

18:00 on 22 Nov 2015
 
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Hydrozoan said:
That's showing surge predictions up to 22/11 as I write; the NTSLF prediction http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Felixstowe is now showing up to late-ish on 24/11, with a rise to ca. +0.2m on that day so far.
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0.2m is not a surge! But higher than prediction: http://www.ntslf.org/data/realtime?port=Harwich. Looking at West Mersea predictions for 28th November is 5.6m whereas the 'peak' prediction for West Mersea on 28th December is 5.3m. Medway and PLA are omitted the 19th year astronomical cycle in November but back as HAT for December and January. A little strange to omit November when October HAT was inclined.
 
Tiller Girl said:
0.2m is not a surge! ...
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Clearly 0.2m is not a ‘surge’ in everyday parlance. But, using NTSLF’s own words, it’s the “Latest surge forecast for Felixstowe” (http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Felixstowe) and is derived from its “Storm surge model” (http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/storm-surge-model), which uses tidal and meteorological data. So I think it’s technically a surge.

My point was that, in contrast to the HHA site which currently shows only a ‘Surge’ (yes, that’s what it calls it! :)) of ca. -0.05m for 22/11 (that’s as far ahead as it goes) the NTSLF forecast goes up to 24/11 (the OP refers to 24/11-27/11) and already shows the surge rising from ca. -0.35m to ca. +0.2 m during that day (and it hasn’t yet predicted through to midnight of 24/11). So if people want the earliest prediction, the NTSLF is the place to look.
 
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