thoughts on avian flu - revisited

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first, could the numbers affected be influenced by the advancement of our knowledge of the mechanisms involved - ie. we know what to do, and are geared up to doing it

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Remarkably little. An overwhelmingly greater effect is increased human population density and travel.

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Will the human transmission be by aerosol.

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Yes

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Facemasks

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I don't know how effective in reducing transmission, I would guess better than nothing. Don't know if there is any data.

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same as second really: is flu contageous?

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Yes!
 
The problem is Chris, you cannot extrapolate that way, for a huge number of factors, so I'll pick the simple ones.

The outbreaks after 1918 were less lethal strains, so simply didn't kill as many.

If the 1918 strain had broken out again, say 20 years later, it wouldn't have killed as many as in 1918, as many would have already been exposed in 1918, and it would have affected those under 20 years old most significantly (as they wouldn't have been exposed previously, though this complicated somewhat by the fact that mothers pass on some immunities.

If the 1918 strain broke out in 2005, it would be similarly lethal, as very very few people alive now would have prior exposure
 
Masks,

Most mask will offer some protection, though highly variable depending on what they are made of, and how close a fit they are. If there are gaps between mask and skin, then you are breathing through the gap, and so breathing non filtered air! MOst mask require at least two bands to get a good close fit, and cheap masks won't fit snugly.

Also viruses are miniscule, smaller than bacteria, and can pass through most filters with ease. Face masks are really designed to keep liquids - sneeze droplets, saliva spray from cough, passsing through, and not viruses, but will certainly provide protection for general day to day use.

If on the other hand, medical staff are treating people known to be suffering from such virus infections, they will use filtering masks to a standard such as N95 or an equivalent, and these are far higher standard than the sort of masks being stockpiled in France and Asia
 
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The reported known cases of H1N5 bird flu are 100, and there have been 60 deaths. However, I suspect many more cases have gone unreported, as this is an extremely high death rate.
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That would be a "we are all going to die" death rate. A virus this deadly would wipe itself out (with quite a few of us) and die off due to lack of hosts if I understand this aright. I remain unconvinced that the Thai medical system is comparable with those available in Western Europe/US, not neccessarily in terms of care, but in terms of the reporting of cases of infection and survival rates. The other side of the coin will be in the UK where every slight sniffle will be reported in the Press as "an outbreak of epidemic proportions".
 
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same as second really: is flu contageous?

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Yes!

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Following Brendan's Link , I understand that the transmission is via mucus tissue, mouth and around the eyes, and that it is not contagious in the sense of touch being enough, but touching someone and then eg rubbing your eyes or eating something you handle? Have I got that right? I am sorting out just how me and mine are going to increase our chances of survival. I was impressed that washing hands with soap and water would probly destroy the virus.
 
It's not the mutated version which spreads human to human, this is one off contacts? not sure I understand your point, you are trying to extrapolate from these isolated cases to a mutated version which spreads human to human, where we don't know morbidity rate
 
If you have someone's snot etc on your hands, then pick nose or rub eyes, or put fingers in mouth, then yes you could transmit the virus in that way. Washing hands thoroughly, simply removes the virus, not guaranteed to destroy it
 
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I understand that the transmission is via mucus tissue, mouth and around the eyes,

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I think you've jumped a stage or two as H5N1 can't be transmitted between humans. Yet!!

So far the only people who have caught Avian flu have been in direct contact with birds carrying the virus. All the scare mungering is based on what ifs and if we lived our lives by what if's we wouldn't dare leave home.
 
Phew! Waded throught that, but it is indeed very easy to follow (even for an engineer!)
Cunning little b****rs these viruses aren't they?
The advice about contact transmission rather than airborne transmission is useful. I must admit that for a long time I thought the major transmission route was airborne until I was "re-calibrated" by a doctor friend. His simple advice was, wave don't kiss, don't shake hands, and wear surgical gloves when shopping! Rather antisocial but probably effective.....
Something to be said for being a retired anti-social old fart after all!!!
 
mmmm we agree on something then

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Something to be said for being a retired anti-social old fart after all!!!

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I understand that the transmission is via mucus tissue, mouth and around the eyes,

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I think you've jumped a stage or two as H5N1 can't be transmitted between humans. Yet!!

So far the only people who have caught Avian flu have been in direct contact with birds carrying the virus. All the scare mungering is based on what ifs and if we lived our lives by what if's we wouldn't dare leave home.

[/ QUOTE ]I think all the info here on how viruses work and are transmitted are generalisations, applicable to any strain of flu.
 
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