The end of boating in Britain?

Re: Good

Nowhere near bedtime yet. Do have the first log fire of the winter going though.

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Re: Ice yachts

maybe fast but no surfing... mind you that would also mean the end of The Great What Do You Use for Seasickness Debate I suspect Hypothermia / Frostbite might suplant Seasickness!

Hey GB might even get some medals in the Winter Olympics!

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Brendan

I didn't see the program tonight. This may have a connection with the my failure to arrive fully 'at home' on account of my lack of key management. My dear SWMBO kindly scooped my remains from the local, to which she suggested I repair (in my deep despair).

When surveying I had to do a weekly sanility check, but hey! I'm still here. Interesting just how many thermoclynes one discovers. Wish I'd seen the programme.

Tom

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most of the evidence/theories have been on tele before.. Some geologist previously found evidence that the climate in the Britain had changed drastically very quickly and managed to link it (I think via ice cores and seabed sampling) to a previous switching off of the Gulf Stream.. some how it righted itself

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Re: Good

So. Ice yachts.

Do we go for long blades or hi-tech composites?

Hi-tech for speed - long for comfort?


Donald

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Re: Ice yachts. A story

Seems the classics are better in a blow..ice yachts. A story.

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.iceboat.org/BladeRunner/the_strange_tale_of_the_ice_soar.htm>part 1</A>

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.iceboat.org/BladeRunner/the_return_of_the_ice_soar.htm>part 2</A>

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Re: A summary

Ah! If you didn't see it, you're missing important points.

As you know, warm water flows from way down south, bringing significant effect to UK, Northern Europe, Scandinavia. Somewhere near Greenland, this immense flow finally cools, and due to higher salinity, now sinks to the seabed, and the cold water flows south where it is heated, rises, and flow north again. A huge conveyor belt.

Now the Glaciers on Greenland and other northerly places have been melting quite rapidly for the past few decades. This is fresh and not salt water. It's an amazing volume of fresh water entering the sea, not small quantities. Just one glacier is dropping enough fresh water into the sea everyday to keep London supplied for 3 months.

As a result, scientists who have been monitoring salinity of seawater in the area have seen dramatic changes since the early 1970's (salinity had been largely stable for recorded measurements over last hundred years). The concern is that the Gulf Stream which is powered by water sinking in the north (salinity driven) and rising in the south, will stop flowing, if salinity decreases due to this freshwater dilution effect near Greenland.

This appears to have happened many times in the past, resulting in extremely rapid changes in local climate (rather than the classic model of long term change)

Academically, it's a well accepted and discussed theory. There's a short and simple description <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Climate/Older/Gulf_Stream.html> here</A> and a quick google will give you some of the more considered and academic views

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What they failed to mention was that initially with the first stage of global warming causing the glaciers and Antartica to melt, coupled with even just a one or two degrees rise in the ocean temperature causing the water to expand. The sea level globally could rise an estimated 65 metres.
The catastrophic effect would probably be just too much for most peoples comprehension. At least with snow and ice you have something to stand on, whereas at 65 metres, 2/3rds of England disappears.

I think that I'll just hang onto my steel boat for a while yet - it might be useful.

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The conveyor belt

Regardless of salinity any current that moves the way that it does isn't going to be stopped by the warm water mixed with Greenland's icy mountains melting and mixing with the Gulf Stream ... What flows north has to sink to return the flow that emanates from the equatorial regions.

All that tonight's Horizon programme did was to add another tinsy-winsy bit into the global warming model. With all our numbers we still haven't a clue as to whether 2030 will be another mini ice age ... and I'll be dead by then.

There's another theory that as we warm up so more moisture will be absorbed into the atmosphere that will come out as increased snow in the polar and mountainregions which will lower sea levels.

Tonight's big chill was either 100% hype or a wake up call ... but it won't affect us. What might affect us this winter is that the mid Atlantic temperature (not reported on the programme) is 1.2 degrees C lower than normal.

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Re: A summary

I found the programme very interesting and credible, especially since it appears from the geological records that arrest of the conveyor may have happened many times before. Not saying I believe it is inevitable but the arguments were compelling.

One question that baffles me - why doesn't it happen in the Pacific as well? Maybe it did but is arrested at present?

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Hi Brendan,

I guess I am just the arch "global warming" sceptic. I have no doubt that salinity levels have changed, and of course do on a regular basis.

On a real pedantic level, the fact the programme called the coneyor "The Gulf Stream" should immediately raise eyebrows. It isn't the Gulf Stream that affects our shores, but an extension of it called The North Atlantic Drift.

To be honest, the scientific information contained within the programme was just to scant to back up the claims. Yes, ice cores have been taken, but what are the flaws in using ice cores to measure such information? Likewise, are there any further mitigating circumstances which would cause salinity levels to drop?

And then of ourse that old gem of global warming gets raised, with an attempt to link to it. Just ask a few question sof global warming.

1. Most temperature measurements are made at airports. Air travel has expanded rapidly in the last few years leading to more concrete/tarmac at airports, enhancing the urban heat island effect. Just take a look at heathrow, it bears no resemblance to it's surroundings.

2. Do computer models take true account of volcanic activity? My belief is that they do not.

3. How much money is being thrown at scientists by parties with questionable interests. Just as an example, governments are happy to fund research, which then finds global warming is a reality, and then they can tax us more becuase we are "ruining the environment". Bit of a conspiracy I know, but one I think stacks up.

And there are many more.

Sorry to ramble on about this one, but as you can tell, it's one that realy gets me riled...grrrrrrr.
Best wishes,
Simon


<hr width=100% size=1>Simon Keeling
Managing Director
Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
 
But Surely

Now. Saline water heading north sinks beneath less saline water, resulting in Gulf Stream.

To come. Saline water heading north sinks beneath even less saline water, resulting in stronger Gulf Stream?

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chortle ... chortle ... !! miffed that the floppy git in the woolly hat (looked a bit like Andrew Marr?) could tell what the weather was 2,000 years ago whereas you lot couldn't tell us today's weather?!!!



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Re: The conveyor belt

Nige,

It's the salinity bit that is the 'pump' that causes the whole thing. Stop the pump, and no more circulation.

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