Storms & rough seas in the South this weekend?

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Happy1

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Does anyone have any information whether this is true or not. I have my boat ready to bring down at the weekend, but have been put off by the forecast of F5-6's.

Cheers,

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
Should be OK, Pete. The weather forecast I've seen shows the winds going round to the North, F3/4. Poss showers on Saturday, less on Sunday.

Will be less warm, with temps of 17/18 deg.C

N or NW winds on Dorset and Hampshire coasts tends to make for less rough seas, unlike our Monday in Swanage when the easterly made it distinctly bumpy.

<hr width=100% size=1>Old Chinese proverb 'Man who sail boat into rice field, soon get into paddy'
 
"Does anyone have any information whether this is true or not" - think you should check as many forecasts as you can and make the decision yourself, its your responsibility, if you're not confident about interpreting the forecast then go get a higher level of training/knowledge on met, also, its not a case of a forecast being 'true', it is a forecast and weather systems are not possible to predict with 100% accuracy.

If you get to your intended departure point and the weather loks rubbish you can do lots of other things for the day, boating like yours would always be a good idea to have a contingency plan for something else to do.

Forgot to say, have a look at theyr.net, I find it v good.

<hr width=100% size=1>Sod the Healey - I think I'll buy an E-Type.
 
Thank you so much for your kind and helpful reply. The reason I put this on here was that I had seen a thread on the other side <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.ybw.com/cgi-bin/forums/showthreaded.pl?Cat=&Board=ym&Number=393365&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=93&part=2#Post393790>http://www.ybw.com/cgi-bin/forums/showthreaded.pl?Cat=&Board=ym&Number=393365&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=93&part=2#Post393790</A> and was a bit confused. Nothing I have seen indicates the weather to be that bad, but as you say most of it is not 100% accurate, but this is far worse than I have seen elsewhere. I just wondered if anybody else had other forecasts they used, so that we could try and get an average.

With regards to towing my boat all the way to Poole on the hope that the weather will be OK is not something I would do, as my only interest in going down there would be to meet up with some forum mates. I find the cost of getting the boat out of the water, driving it down there and launching, is more than justified by the friendship and sharing of knowledge by fellow forum members I meet there. However I have plenty of things to do up here without having to prepare the boat, sit in a car towing a boat for 7hrs and then being unable to use it safely, hence my research /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

Thanks again for your interest,

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
Latest on

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<hr width=100% size=1>Old Chinese proverb 'Man who sail boat into rice field, soon get into paddy'
 
Thank you for the sarcasm, it really helped.

I think we are all capable of looking on the scuttlebutt.

As you say, conflicting forecasts are a pain in the ass, thats why I suggested theyr.net, I find it very easy to interpret and accurate, I tend to base my weather judgements on what I think is causing the weather at the time, ie, air pressure and hence resultant gradient wind.

Surely lots to do in Poole harbour in a 5/6 in your boat? second biggest natural harbour in the world I thought? Funny how many solentites have been x channel but not done every creek in the solent, which I think I now have.

<hr width=100% size=1>Sod the Healey - I think I'll buy an E-Type.
 
Pete,

Given your interest in things technical I would suggest you look at a synoptic chart as a starting point and learn to make your own intepretations that you can measure against forecasts.

You'll find 72hr-worth of synoptics at <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.ybw.com/weather>http://www.ybw.com/weather</A>

Looking at the current set it very much looks as though the prevailing gradient wind will be northerly which can be quite a handy wind for south coast boating near the coast; perhaps it would be better to make the effort to move rather than stay Thames Estuary this weekend. Furthermore, at this stage it looks as though the winds will be easing through the weekend.

There are, of course, some caveats. Firstly the synoptics can be just as wrong as everything else. Secondly that they do move from day-to-day as a rule so you need to keep checking.

The latter point is really useful though, because as a general rule of thumb if the forecasters keep changing their minds it is a good indication that they (and the computers they use to crunch data) are not entirely sure of what is happening. If you see a stable pattern emerge then it can give a degree of confidence in what you are seeing.

Loads of weather books around; I've never seen one that really struck me as the bible but perhaps other users can recommend their favourite reads.

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Hope someone can point me towards a weather book that is readable, I have about 4 or 5 and they all are so dry its impossible to read them, one of them I take when sailing offshore as a reference book, will post the name of it when I have tunnelled out of the office.



<hr width=100% size=1>Sod the Healey - I think I'll buy an E-Type.
 
Thanks Kim, I have a good selection of weather books, but still have to get the time to study them in depth. I start my Yachtmaster training in September so no doubt will be able to pick up some info whilst on the course. Just out of interest I have just looked at the bbc weather site and Poole has two lovely big suns for Sat & Sun /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
Now, now children, you'll be upsetting Kim next.

Theyr.net is good. Not looked at that before. I like the coloured contours for Beaufort scale. Thanks for the pointer.

Bottom line looks like F3 Sat and poss F2 Sunday, NW. Good for run to Yarmouth I would have thought. Not so sure about precipitation, though.

<hr width=100% size=1>Old Chinese proverb 'Man who sail boat into rice field, soon get into paddy'
 
The ybw.com/weather useful, but synoptics tend to be 00:00UTC. Given that a lot of us are daytime boaters 12:00UTC would be more useful. Doesn't really need me to say, but a lot can change in 12hrs.

<hr width=100% size=1>Old Chinese proverb 'Man who sail boat into rice field, soon get into paddy'
 
That was me - sorry

Morning - that was my posting and the web site responsible for that apppalling bit of tabloid forecasting has now down graded to 5-6 around midday Friday. I am sorry I posted this as it has added to the 'crying wolf' situation.

However - for a boating week end - looks like northerlies, and will be decidely chilly. But have a good weekend!

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Geoff, If Yarmouth is the destination for an overnighter then I would put the boat in at Southampton, that way I would save the extra traveling time. I am limited by launching times, I could do Soton at 12 noon for launch on Sat, but would have to be out at 5-6pm latest on Sunday. Poole would let me in a bit earlier and out a bit later, but I would of course have the extra drive. If we have a meet in Yarmouth I am more than capable of finding my way there (I think), is it go towards IOW then turn right, up a bit past a creek on the left and then next left after a pier?

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
Re: That was me - sorry

Thanks Chris /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
Yarmouth was suggested by BarryH, earlier in the week, but I don't know!

Your navigation seems about right, up to Yachtmaster standard, already.

<hr width=100% size=1>Old Chinese proverb 'Man who sail boat into rice field, soon get into paddy'
 
Sun and wind

Sun can still equal a lot of wind, although in this case if the gradient wind is northerly and you get some decent heating of the land promoting a sea breeze it could work really well in Poole. You can guess that bit but won't really know until the day.

Only bother about that northerly is that it is going to be a weekend to reach for the warmer clothes out on the water, one expects.

Don't get too hung up on the in-depth study bit, in my view. Get interested in the prevailing trends and practice watching them, even when not boating. TV forecasts (the ones with synoptics) are always fun to observe and often quite useful, for example.

When we are forecasting to ensure reasonable conditions for 25 boats on cruise in company fleets we are looking at the all of the available data, and often. More difficult on a boat unless you have Internet facilities and the will to spend the money and a lot easier to decide for one boat versus 25 but certainly it is a good ploy to check trends during the Wed-Fri period for weekend boating. That's a combination of synoptics, actuals (weather reports) and local forecasts (not shipping forecasts which can be very misleading for local waters boating).

<hr width=100% size=1>
 
\'Trying to get an average\'

Ummmm, not entirely good concept that with forecasts. Taking the sum of an increasing number of forecasts and averaging them out is not really telling you what you need to know. Plus, human nature always either leads you to believe the worst one, or for the optimists, to opt for the best one!

Think a better route to go is to look at the offered forecasts, cross-compare against available synoptics and try to understand where the forecasters are coming from, taking a slightly defensive view on conclusions.

<hr width=100% size=1>
 
Re: \'Trying to get an average\'

I have just found a great Weather shop in Eastbourne on google, seems to be well stocked. I have seen this kit for sale :- <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.weatherfront.biz/acatalog/wmr112.html#a4891475211017>http://www.weatherfront.biz/acatalog/wmr112.html#a4891475211017</A> Would it be worth getting it to experiment with?

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
Useful kit

This kind of kit with the all-singing, all-dancing rain collector and so on would probably die on a boat after a while. If looking for something useful to watch pressure then my personal recommendation is one of the pocket barometers that you can buy these days; I have one made by Silva that also has an anenometer although to be fair if it is blowing a bit I have a pretty good idea without needing to reach for the gizmo. But carrying a little barometer about that you trust is very handy.

Bought mine two years back; just had to change the battery for the first time. It is one of just a few essentials I carry in my kit bag when on boats.

An alternative are some of the units you can buy on the high street, similar to the kit you have shown in the web link but with less bells and whistles. They tend to show pressure trend for longer (useful) and are generally cheaper by quite a measure but also tend to explode into many components if you leave them propped up in the galley and forget to stow them away before first wave/floor impact.

Whatever portable barometer you use, remember, if watching it at home, that a long drive to the boat can bring about what looks like an alarmingly quick change in measured pressure if there are some pressure gradients about. Ditto if you live a couple of thousand feet up somewhere.

Also there are calibration routines with all of them although (at risk of sounding like a scratched record) ultimately you are as interested in trend as anything else.

<hr width=100% size=1>
 
Re: Useful kit

I did have the Silva blue one, but sold it on the for sale forum as I wasn't using it....then! I was thinking of the weather station for home, not the boat, just for practicing.

<hr width=100% size=1><font color=purple> "You only see what you recognise, and you only recognise what you know" <font color=purple>
 
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