Storm Éowyn

[RunAgroundHard]

@franksingleton

I get these infringement warnings from time to time, and it makes me realise, that I need to play by their rules, because there is a lot of good stuff on here that I would not know about easily if I got banned e.g. the lithium battery story. Anyway, this is the link to the subject on the jet stream. While not proven, it does suggest that weather bombs and sting jets might become more frequent and, or more intense. That should concern a sailor who wants to manage risk better, whether the boat is propped up onshore or on the water.

Guest post: Why ‘jet-streak’ winds will get faster as the climate warms - Carbon Brief
Associated research https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD008087

Folks - this is just for information, and is not posted to debate MMGW.

 

[NormanS]

My memory agrees that's how it used to be but this year particularly it has been anything but. SW3 in the west has been anywhere from E to N varying from 0 to 6 or more. I've gone from 2 reefs and rolled genoa to motoring and then back again too often and, like others I've chatted with, I'm fed up with it.

What? You're fed up already, and it's only January.

 

[awol]

What? You're fed up already, and it's only January.

Goodness, you're right, it's 2025 already. Since I retired I tend to lose which day of the week it is but I should have remembered ne'erday and the year change. Post edited.

 

[franksingleton]

SHE

Professor Liz Bentley

I’d politely suggest that the CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society might just have something more substantial than “first principles” to base her claims on.

Agreed. I did not see the clip and the initial post referred to “a scientist.” In BBC terms, that could cover a wide range of knowledge and ability. Not that long ago, they were wheeling out Piers Cotbyn as an expert. I cannot claim to know Liz although we have dined in the past on a few occasions. Rather like me, she seems to be a generalist. No doubt she is more up to date with latest developments and, from her position, able to get a brief from relevant experts before appearing on the TV or radio. The point about basic principles is that starting from these is necessary to understand the whole. You do not have to get down to the nitty gritty to understand climate change.

I am quite certain that the strength of the jet stream is likely to increase; with global warming. The 2% quoted seems to me to be a ball park figure and not to be taken too literally. But, I have not gone back to the paper.

 

[Supertramp]

I am just off to check a property on the Lleyn 190m higher up and just 3 miles inland from Aberdaron met station . The station recorded 93 miles an hour yesterday and 92 miles an hour during Darragh.

Our local armchair weather observers distinctly agreed that Eowyn was louder than Darragh. No empirical data for this!

Could the sound increase be linked to a difference in barometric pressure?

We could visibly see the effect of barometric pressure as we had nearly full coverage of sand banks on the Menai usually well exposed even on neap tides. An educated guess is the storm surge was up to 1m or more!

It was truly brutal - I have never been aboard a boat in wind like that before. It was screaming not howling through rigging and hitting the boat like a squall under full sail. The tide was high for a neap at Pwllheli but the pressure didn't drop as much or as fast as I expected. The fiercest gusts came as the pressure started to rise. Can't comment on the noise but the direction could affect local speed and gusts.

It would be nice to label it a once in ten years, or once in a generation event but is hard to do when we have had two in such quick succession.

 

[GEM43]

The fiercest gusts came as the pressure started to rise.

Same at Troon, Scotland.

 

[Boathook]

Goodness, you're right, it's 2025 already. Since I retired I tend to lose which day of the week it is but I should have remembered ne'erday and the year change. Post edited.

I like to know the day of the week to try and avoid driving at weekends.

Also knowing when school holidays are, normally means less traffic plus knowing to avoid certain areas that are by visitor attractions

 

[Porthandbuoy]

Power went off at the height of the storm yesterday. Latest update from Scottish Power is to have it back on by midnight tomorrow.
I feel an insurance claim coming on for stuff in the freezer.

 

[Thistle]

Ah don't worry, Peel Ports with be rid of it in no time at all

Nah. They'll be charging for parking.

 

[Mister E]

And the next storm tomorrow but not supposed to be as bad.

 

[AngusMcDoon]

And the next storm tomorrow but not supposed to be as bad.

Pretty similar with a central pressure dropping to 948 mBar and sustained winds of 63 knots with gusts of 95, but the peak winds are not over land, so it will have much less effect.

 

[franksingleton]

…… Joe Public then blames the science for getting it wrong. It's even worse when industrialists or politicians (looking west, but naming no names) use twisted "facts" to rubbish the science.

There was a good example on Any Questions recently. An American panellist was arguing that the increase in hurricane damage in the US was due to more, and more expensive, buildings near the coast. He defended that be saying, rightly, that numbers of hurricanes had not increased. He omitted to say that the intensity of hurricanes had increased. In fact, that is an IPCC prediction right from their first report.

 

[franksingleton]

A summary of the dtorm, Joe it developed is at A look back on Storm Éowyn.