Some Observation About Used Boat Prices

[Baddox]

When I bought our current boat in 2016 I took details of about 180 Average White Boats that were listed on the bigger sales websites. These details can be simplified into make, model, size, age, etc and using some computational black magic, produce various calculations giving an overall estimate of boat asking prices. Imagine a graph showing cost versus age for otherwise identical boats, then build in all the other variables. The range limits were ca10 to 15m, newer than 20 years old and sub £250K. Makes where limited numbers were available were excluded so as not to skew the data.

Repeating the exercise this month as I start to think more seriously about buying something bigger, provided some interesting conclusions.

Firstly, there were about twice the number of in-range boats available for sale in 2016 compared to now.

Minimal difference is seen in values of the AWB production boats of Bav, Ben, Jen Hanse and Dufour in the current data.

Age is the biggest price factor and greater influence than size in determining the used boat asking price although this price can vary by +/- 20%.

In mast furling has no effect on asking price but a bow thruster increase the cost by a small but statistically significant amount.

It is also interesting that the records and calculations show that used boat prices have almost doubled like-for-like (based on age and size) from 2016 to 2023.

Even prices for notionally the same boat have increased from 2016 to 2023, indicating a boat bought in 2016 may have a higher asking price now.

Bavarias have seen the biggest rise in value although that was because they stared slightly behind the other AWBs in 2016 and have now equalled them on asking price.

 

[Greemble]

Interesting to see a comparison being made of the figures.
Understandably imprecise, given the shear number of variables, but the conclusions are certainly not unexpected.

 

[AntarcticPilot]

Interesting stuff! Only one caveat - correlation does not imply causation, and especially for variables where the effect is small, there could be hidden variable effects. So, for example, the effect of a bow thruster may be because it is an indicator of another unmeasurable variable (perhaps quality of maintenance) rather than because there's a bow thruster. That's merely an illustration of the potential problem, but it's something to be aware of. There are statistical tests for such things, but I suspect you don't have enough data for that. One of the authors whose papers I revise is into that kind of thing in a big way!

 

[Baddox]

Interesting stuff! Only one caveat - correlation does not imply causation, and especially for variables where the effect is small, there could be hidden variable effects. So, for example, the effect of a bow thruster may be because it is an indicator of another unmeasurable variable (perhaps quality of maintenance) rather than because there's a bow thruster. That's merely an illustration of the potential problem, but it's something to be aware of. There are statistical tests for such things, but I suspect you don't have enough data for that. One of the authors whose papers I revise is into that kind of thing in a big way!

Yes you’re right. I did look at P-values and anova and other metrics of statistical significance or confidence but I expect that would be of less interest to most readers.

 

[Bouba]

Yes you’re right. I did look at P-values and anova and other metrics of statistical significance or confidence but I expect that would be of less interest to most readers.

You need to confirm your figures....by doing exactly the same for...motorboats

 

[Tranona]

To me the telling bit of data is that only half as many boats on the market compared with 7 years ago. This suggests that churn is lower and people are keeping boats for longer, not necessarily through choice but because there isn't a choice of boat to move up (or down) to. The consequence of this, I think is that people who want to stay in boating are likely to invest in upgrades or refits whereas in the past they might avoid that by changing boats.

Bow thruster kind of illustrate this. Fitting one helps avoid downsizing as one gets older. £4k is similar to transaction costs on changing boats. Bit like the housing market where moving costs run into tens of thousands which buys a lot of home improvements. I notice this from the work being done over the winter in our club. Four bow thrusters fitted to existing boats, and of the kind you would not think. My GH, a Halmatic 30, Catalina 28 and a Jeanneau 32. Likewise new engines in boats where the cost of the engine is greater than the market value of the boat. One such is a Centaur I know well, which was bought 5 years ago for £2.5k and has had 3 times that spent on it. Owner contemplated moving up in size, but quickly found that anything in his purchase budget would need at least £5k spent on it and he would be lucky to get £5k for his boat. So new engine would see him OK for another 5 years at least.

We can see the same pattern in cars. Limited supply of new cars, overall supply falls, prices rise and people tend to spend money keeping their older cars running. Just today I decided to spend nearly £1k on my wife's 2005 Fiesta (ABS warning light equals lots of new parts otherwise MOT fail). Worthless without it, but otherwise car is sound and has another 5 years life at least.

Interesting times. The days of just buy another boat or sign a new contract for a new car are over for many.

 

[Concerto]

If you want to buy a new boat, you have to sign a contract for delivery in 2 to 3 years time and accept 2 or 3 increases in the contract price, unless you pay a 40% deposit when you can avoid the price increases. You may not want to wait this period or accept an increasing price, so you either keep your current boat or buy on the secondhand market.

Some decades ago, someone wanted to buy a Swan and could not afford to wait for the model he wanted. He then searched all the Swans for sale around the world and bought the cheapest and worst condition one. He then sent it back to Finland and used a local yard to completely refurbish the boat using men who used to work at Nautor. The refurbished boat looked like new and was returned quicker than a new Swan and at a lower cost.

Baddox, your research is interesting but I find it falls into the relm of facts, figures and statistics. To buy the right boat also involves the gut feeling of it is the right one. That does not enter your facts, figures and statistics, but cannot be quantified.

 

[Sandy]

There have been a few marina/pub conversations I've got involved in asking 'when will the bottom fall out of the market' when the impact of the COVID travel restrictions finally unwind. When people look at the 'caravan with a sail' and wonder if that two weeks in the sun is easier way to spend their hard earned beer tokens rather than applying expensive antifoul on the boat on a damp Sunday afternoon, relaxing in a Radox bath and aching in places you had not ached since last time you slathered smelly, gunky paint, at odd angles on a far from flat surface.