Should I postpone my lift-out?

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Babylon

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Due to come out in a few days time for a month ashore, but mithering over the possibility that with the current 'virus' situation (specifically possible travel or access restrictions yet unknown) I could find myself unable to get back down to the boat let alone get it re-launched by the yard.

Am I being sensibly prudent to even consider this, or neurotically alarmist?
 
Your worrying :unsure: :unsure:
Try living with my wife. She is due to go on a weeks golfing holiday in Marakesh at the end of the month & does not know if it is going ahead:unsure:
She has not played for 6 weeks due to a flooded course & has been cold turkey for weeks
Do not mention golf - I did & I definitely did NOT get away with it:devilish:

A friend of mine needs to get to his yacht in Italy in 2 weeks & is not sure that he will even get access to it or anywhere near it.

As for your problem - Why not ring the yard & ask them to lift it.
Besides what is there to stop you driving a car to a marina?
If you cannot get to it afterwards,( & I do not see why you would not be able to) there will be no need to get it re launched anyway
You do not have to mix with others, or go where others are frequenting- do you?
 
Babylon said:
Due to come out in a few days time for a month ashore, but mithering over the possibility that with the current 'virus' situation (specifically possible travel or access restrictions yet unknown) I could find myself unable to get back down to the boat let alone get it re-launched by the yard.

Am I being sensibly prudent to even consider this, or neurotically alarmist?
Click to expand...

Neurotically alarmist...Sorry.
 
The weather might be a bigger consideration, anti foul and other such like products don't like cold and damp surfaces. My boat is due to be lifted 13th March, I am considering a delay until the weather shows signs of improving.
 
I can't spell nureoticaly alrmist.

But it takes far less time to do the annual jobs to a boat in the summer than it does in the winter. Not only does stuff dry quicker but there are fewer other owners about to have a good moan with or about. Furthermore, it can be cheaper. There's an excuse if you need it!
 
Good points DB... and thanks for the offer to live with your wife but I'll pass this time!

Ardee, I'd already come to the decision to go ahead with it (standing rigging needs replacing), but the issue does bear at least considering.

With a sensible administration running the country I might worry less, but we live in strange times where the King is constantly busy with his dick leaving a hoodie to vandalise exactly the civil institutions one would in the past have relied upon, and with reports that Parliament (i.e. accountability) might be suspended etc, this is no time to be cavalier with the old certainties.

In the extremely unlikely event that restrictions are placed on internal travel or the suchlike, the boat will be as useless on the hard as it would be in the water... albeit at an ongoing daily charge!
 
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I have to go down to Quiberon at the end of the month to move my boat to her new home in Arzal. Got the ferry booked and thankfully not having an EV I can get there and back on a tankful of diesel so no need to even get out of the car between the ferry and the marina, there are apparently some cases of the virus around the Morbihan (Auray, Carnac and La Trinite). Hopefully I'll get there (and back) without travel being restricted in some way...
 
Babylon said:
Due to come out in a few days time for a month ashore, but mithering over the possibility that with the current 'virus' situation (specifically possible travel or access restrictions yet unknown) I could find myself unable to get back down to the boat let alone get it re-launched by the yard.

Am I being sensibly prudent to even consider this, or neurotically alarmist?
Click to expand...

I think it's mad to even consider the virus, you're more likely to catch it in a closed environment at work, the train or, in the local supermarket, than in a boat yard. More people are dying with the flue anyway.
 
Absolutely agree - I'm completely unworried about the virus itself, just open to the possibility of blanket knee-jerk restrictions.
 
Daydream believer said:
Your worrying :unsure: :unsure:
Try living with my wife. She is due to go on a weeks golfing holiday in Marakesh at the end of the month & does not know if it is going ahead:unsure:
She has not played for 6 weeks due to a flooded course & has been cold turkey for weeks
Do not mention golf - I did & I definitely did NOT get away with it:devilish:

A friend of mine needs to get to his yacht in Italy in 2 weeks & is not sure that he will even get access to it or anywhere near it.

As for your problem - Why not ring the yard & ask them to lift it.
Besides what is there to stop you driving a car to a marina?
If you cannot get to it afterwards,( & I do not see why you would not be able to) there will be no need to get it re launched anyway
You do not have to mix with others, or go where others are frequenting- do you?
Click to expand...

There are some cracking courses there she should come back very happy indeed but perhaps skint as they are not cheap ? Personally I found the place a shit hole other than the Road we stayed in in the Medina. If going again I would stay in one of the many 5* out of city hotels and just play my golf.
Tell her although the airport is efficient there are long waits at immigration both on entry and leaving.
One course I wouldn't bother playing again would be Palmeraie, very ordinary and a bit of a scruffy course although the facilities were good.

Assoufid was superb although I would say that as the two times I played it I played of the back tees and broke 80 both times(y) The restaurant was also exceptional.
 
If you look at the curves for how it's spreading, consider that incubation is at least a week and extrapolate out a month, I'd say that if you were neurotically alarmist you'd *want* to pull it out now and get it back in before things go nuts. I'd certainly see no reason to disrupt existing plans for the reasons others have said above.

Keep Calm, carry on then panic buy stores and sail your family to St. Helena.
 
Fr J Hackett said:
There are some cracking courses there she should come back very happy indeed but perhaps skint as they are not cheap ? Personally I found the place a shit hole other than the Road we stayed in in the Medina. If going again I would stay in one of the many 5* out of city hotels and just play my golf.
Tell her although the airport is efficient there are long waits at immigration both on entry and leaving.
One course I wouldn't bother playing again would be Palmeraie, very ordinary and a bit of a scruffy course although the facilities were good.

Assoufid was superb although I would say that as the two times I played it I played of the back tees and broke 80 both times(y) The restaurant was also exceptional.
Click to expand...
She agrees. She has been going for some time-- I encourage her to go because it gives me brownie points for the SH sailing trips.
Also doing, Fairmont Royal Palm, Samanah, Royal Marakesh (y) If she gets stuck there she will just have to keep playing
 
Lightwave395 said:
I have to go down to Quiberon at the end of the month to move my boat to her new home in Arzal. Got the ferry booked and thankfully not having an EV I can get there and back on a tankful of diesel so no need to even get out of the car between the ferry and the marina, there are apparently some cases of the virus around the Morbihan (Auray, Carnac and La Trinite). Hopefully I'll get there (and back) without travel being restricted in some way...
Click to expand...

Lock openings at Arzal are restricted at the moment due to increased river levels from heavy rainfall. I know you are a few weeks away but if it still raining heavily then it may be worth checking before you head off from Quiberon.
 
Hadenough said:
Lock openings at Arzal are restricted at the moment due to increased river levels from heavy rainfall. I know you are a few weeks away but if it still raining heavily then it may be worth checking before you head off from Quiberon.
Click to expand...

Yes, thanks, have been pondering on that...! Maybe we should just go off and 'self isolate' in Ile d'yeu !
 
As a Haslemere resident, we are watching the spread of infections warily.
You may remember that a couple of years ago we were the base for a TV program to test how quickly an epidemic might spread. The following extract from the post test report might be useful to decide whether you go or hibernate:

"For both simulations, we can also look at the cumulative number of cases, as shown in Fig. 8. As the national spread has arrived in most places by week 7, it will then peak a few weeks later in even those later places, so the bulk of infection is concluded by 80–90 days: about three months. With the control measures, the accumulation of cases is dramatically slowed, and gets close to peak only around 140 days. As well as being slowed, the total number of cases is much lower.
Fig. 8

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Fig. 8. Cumulative cases (in millions) against time in days. For the basic spread in blue, and with extra control measures in gold. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
The extra control measures do not stop this pandemic from spreading through the UK, but they do both slow it down and reduce its impact. This is in agreement with wider ideas of using non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate pandemics, explored in detail by Hollingsworth et al. (2011). Slowing down the outbreaks and reducing their impact are both extremely valuable. An extra month before many towns are reached could be enough time to allow further control measures to be rolled out, and certainly it would mean national resources (such as hospital beds) being less stretched by all places having epidemic peaks near-simultaneously, and generally be a much more manageable scenario.
The mortality rate was not explicitly included in the model, as it does not shape the overall spread of the pandemic or incidence numbers. However, the number of deaths can be deduced by a simple multiplication. The ‘reasonable worst case’ in the current UK pandemic planning modelling work puts the case fatality rates at 2.5% (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Advisory Committee, 2016) and many estimates of the mortality rate in the 1918 pandemic are in this ballpark, though this depends on which wave of the pandemic, which age group, which country and is notoriously hard to estimate (as neither the numerator nor denominator to any great accuracy) (Simonsen et al., 1998, Nishiura, 2010). Assuming here a devastating pandemic with 2% case fatality rate, the basic spread corresponds to 863,000 deaths. The number of these deaths that could be averted with control measures that reduce transmission by 22% is 260,000. Though extreme, this example serves to strikingly underline the value of basic hygiene measures: even without being able to avert the pandemic, there is clear potential for simple control measures to save very many lives."

Of course every virus has its own rate of infection, so one needs to slot today's initial rates in to the above curves before guessing how long before we reach our ? 30 million ? cases.
Not a joking matter for those of us with aged hearts and lungs.?
 
The mortality rate is between 3.4% and 6%.

3.4% is the percentage of people who have died/the number of people infected. The 6% is the number of deaths/Deaths+recovered). these two number tend towards each other over time to establish the mortality rate. It is quite clear the the outcome will be around 4% or 1 in 25 with most of these concentrated in the over 460's where the mortality rate is very high.

The Chinese government is the only government that has acted responsibly. The country should be completely closed to all travellers from abroad and everyone should be subject to a complete curfew for three weeks. That is the only way to stop the spread of this killer. It takes up to 3 weeks to show and if you look at the Diamond Princess you can see that most have not yet recovered so recovery time are often well over six weeks.
 
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