Seaworthiness. Do the maths tell the true story?

[Laminar Flow]

(as quite probable with a southern ocean knockdown when AVS starts to be relevant).

To be quite clear, you do not need to travel that far. A 3m breaking wave is quite sufficient to capsize a thirty footer.

 

[flaming]

I appreciate all the comments as to "active" storm management such as weather routing etc.
These all assume that one has the technology to do so and that it is all functioning as it should, which is not a given in a violent salt laden environment, that the crew is well and fit and not exhausted, seasick or injured or short-handed. Things simply do not always work out as we like or planned; especially not at sea.

For sure this assumes that the techonolgy is there, but weather routing is pretty cheap and accessible these days. Anyone who can afford a Pogo or similar can afford it... Friends with a westerly use it on their world cruise.

I would be far more inclined to accept that the older more traditional "seaworthy" designs were the best bet for cruising in safety if there weren't quite so many recent documented cases of these boats coming a cropper in serious weather.
To me it seems to be inevitable that however seaworthy your design there is weather out there that will prove too much for you, or your boat.
So rather than go for the ultimately seaworthy design that might be a bit better in the worst of it but accept a higher likelihood of seeing that weather, surely an equally good approach is to kit yourself up to know about the weather coming and have the speed to be able to get out of the way?
I accept that you still run a risk of being caught by something bad, going to sea can never be a risk free activity, but even then the differences between something like a Rustler and a Pogo are not so massive that you haven't got a chance in the pogo if you are caught out.

The idea that we can always outrun trouble and hence, we can get away with a less seaworthy design, is akin to claiming that because your vehicle is more maneuverable and speedy, you do not need airbags, seat belts and a crunch zone.

That's not really a good analogy... And not what is being said either.

A better analogy might be that the best tactic to avoid being mugged is not to take self defense classes in the hope of fighting them off, but to know where the muggers hang out and avoid those areas.

 

[doug748]

......................

This makes me wonder if the maths needs a redesign to better suit modern hull shapes by people with brains far bigger than mine, or whether the results simply need to be realigned to tell the real story?

Perhaps it should include skippers in some way, for I, a pensioner, cannot imagine how anyone can fly in a Pogo through a gale and stay sane or safe!

I guess the sums are what they are because of the difficulties in more dynamic modelling. They tell the truth as far as it goes.

Racing hulls are generally in the hands of very fit, young, hard professional athletes. They have the stamina and nous to keep them sailing in crackers conditions. As pointed out above, they also have the benefit of 24 hour backup, routeing advice and top onboard kit.
The ordinary Joe Soap would either be turning them upside down in the Solent or be sailing so conservatively he may has well bought a Folkboat in the first place.

Fast cruising boats are there, as well, for those that favour them but if you tackle tricky waters the margins are a little slimmer. You have to be as good a sailor as you think you are.

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[Laminar Flow]

For sure this assumes that the techonolgy is there, but weather routing is pretty cheap and accessible these days. Anyone who can afford a Pogo or similar can afford it... Friends with a westerly use it on their world cruise.

I would be far more inclined to accept that the older more traditional "seaworthy" designs were the best bet for cruising in safety if there weren't quite so many recent documented cases of these boats coming a cropper in serious weather.
To me it seems to be inevitable that however seaworthy your design there is weather out there that will prove too much for you, or your boat.
So rather than go for the ultimately seaworthy design that might be a bit better in the worst of it but accept a higher likelihood of seeing that weather, surely an equally good approach is to kit yourself up to know about the weather coming and have the speed to be able to get out of the way?
I accept that you still run a risk of being caught by something bad, going to sea can never be a risk free activity, but even then the differences between something like a Rustler and a Pogo are not so massive that you haven't got a chance in the pogo if you are caught out.



That's not really a good analogy... And not what is being said either.

A better analogy might be that the best tactic to avoid being mugged is not to take self defense classes in the hope of fighting them off, but to know where the muggers hang out and avoid those areas.

I actually agree with a lot you say, in as much that dangerous situations at sea are best avoided.
Considering that storm fronts frequently move at speeds of 25-40kts in the open sea or over 900 NM in a 24hr period, I will just have to accept the fact that the types of boats I have sailed in would not likely be able to outrun such a front, whereas hurricanes seem to travel slower and if one could move at 10kts or better one might have a chance.

There has been a lot of criticism in regards to the "classic" boats participating in the Golden Globe. You are right of course in that they were not allowed to use weather rooting, even as you say, the benefits might have been minimal due to their limited speeds.
It should be noted that these boats experienced winds up to 90kts; I have been out in "only" 60kts and I truly can't begin to imagine what that must be like, particularly when the seas have had time to build. I agree that there will be such a time when no boat will survive. There were, of course, no "modern" boats present for a direct comparison.
While there were numerous capsizes, hull integrity or self-righting was not really the issue, the biggest single problem were the rigs and their frequent and complete loss.
None of the rigs competing had, as far as materials are concerned, much in common with either Suhaili or Joshua back in the day. Both used galvanized plow steel for their rigging and had timber masts (solid telephone pole type in Joshua.)
Just to forestall any particular idea that I am suggesting going back to the stone age: I am not necessarily advocating super heavy solid timber spars or rusty galvanized rigging.
Aluminium spars are however susceptible to buckling when point loaded and stress fatigue and stainless steel has some nasty habits too and is very rigid.
Plow steel on the other hand is very stretchy and I remember inspecting a heavy 40' yacht that had tried going under a railway bridge with the tide and a culminate speed of 8kts and not enough clearance. The galvanized shrouds had stretched a full six inches without failing and the owner said his hollow wooden mast bent like a fishing pole; remarkably, he didn't lose the rig. Moitessier, incidentally, also reported his masts bending considerably and he credited his rig's survival to their evident solidity.

Extensive tests in wave tanks have indicated that a classic hull form has a better chance of survival in breaking waves (wave heights between 13 and 18 feet.)

Be that as it may, most of this is rather academic, since the great majority of yachtsmen are not likely to ever experience such extraordinary conditions as found in the Southern Ocean and most current yachts are able enough for the normal conditions and use they are put to.

 

[TernVI]

UFO 34 Black Arrow (RAF club boat) not only survived but finished and won her class in 1979 Fastnet I'd have one in a heartbeat.

Late 70s IOR boats would be great for racing against other late 70s IOR boats.
The shape was dictated by the rule.
The rule did, AIUI, attempt to discourage hull shapes which were thought 'unseaworthy' or otherwise undesireable in the 1950s mindset.

The fact that that boat won probably doesn't tell us that the boat was a particularly pleasant choice of place to be in a storm, more that it was strong enough that a bunch of service chaps didn't break it.

I suspect if we went back in time 40 years, you find the same argument going on, except it would be enthusiasts for prewar designs telling us that modern IOR boats are crap and you want a proper man's boat like a pilot cutter.

 

[flaming]

There has been a lot of criticism in regards to the "classic" boats participating in the Golden Globe. You are right of course in that they were not allowed to use weather rooting, even as you say, the benefits might have been minimal due to their limited speeds.
It should be noted that these boats experienced winds up to 90kts; I have been out in "only" 60kts and I truly can't begin to imagine what that must be like, particularly when the seas have had time to build. I agree that there will be such a time when no boat will survive. There were, of course, no "modern" boats present for a direct comparison.

I agree with most of what you say, but just wanted to correct you on one thing, highlighted.

In fact there were modern boats sailing round the world single handed at the same time, sort of a response to the restrictive GGR rules. The Longue Route. One of whom, sailing a Beneteau 43, pictured, responded to one of the GGR boats when it dismasted.

Golden Globe Race - Day 112: Operations begin to rescue Loïc Lepage from his dismasted yacht

As they weren't in it for the publicity in the same way that the GGR was, it's very tough to find much information, and their website has expired. But it was a very diverse fleet including a few AWBs, and did not suffer like the GGR fleet did. I don't recall any southern ocean rescues of participants.
Which is sometimes seen as a bit of an inconvenience to those who claim that AWBs are not as seaworthy as modern boats, but to be honest I see far more as a validation of weather routing as the most effective tool for storm survival in small boats.

 

[doug748]

It's never long before these threads degenerate into two camps. Even the even handed are pushed into one box or the other.

On another tack.

"In fact there were modern boats sailing round the world single handed at the same time, sort of a response to the restrictive GGR rules. The Longue Route. One of whom, sailing a Beneteau 43, pictured, responded to one of the GGR boats when it dismasted. "

I remember it well, the boat was crewed, not racing, had a backup team onshore and (probably because of the latter) was the length of England away from the poor weather. It would be a wrong to dress it up too much.

I always thought the GGR came across as a bit of a stunt, poorly thought out at that. I hope we have seen the back of it.

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[flaming]

It's never long before these threads degenerate into two camps. Even the even handed are pushed into one box or the other.

On another tack.

"In fact there were modern boats sailing round the world single handed at the same time, sort of a response to the restrictive GGR rules. The Longue Route. One of whom, sailing a Beneteau 43, pictured, responded to one of the GGR boats when it dismasted. "

I remember it well, the boat was crewed, not racing, had a backup team onshore and (probably because of the latter) was the length of England away from the poor weather. It would be a wrong to dress it up too much.

I always thought the GGR came across as a bit of a stunt, poorly thought out at that. I hope we have seen the back of it.

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The Longue route was not fully crewed, it was solo.

And the point about it being away from the bad weather is exactly the point I was making... That's what weather routing does!

To be clear I am not claiming that faced with the same weather that Beneteau would have necessarily fared better (though it is larger, and that is a big factor) but that the best defense against getting rolled, dismasted etc in bad weather is not to get caught by the bad weather... And it's a lot easier to do that if your boat is faster and you have good weather routing.

 

[michael_w]

++ On weather routing. I well remember riding out 50kts about 300 miles west of Ireland. Our router, Herb Hilingberg, advising us to stay put as another degree east it was up to hurricane strength.

Our tactic was to lie hove-to under trysail, switch the see-me on and the radar in watch mode, go below and listen to Steven Fry reading Harry Potter.

 

[Robin]

Late 70s IOR boats would be great for racing against other late 70s IOR boats.
The shape was dictated by the rule.
The rule did, AIUI, attempt to discourage hull shapes which were thought 'unseaworthy' or otherwise undesireable in the 1950s mindset.

The fact that that boat won probably doesn't tell us that the boat was a particularly pleasant choice of place to be in a storm, more that it was strong enough that a bunch of service chaps didn't break it.

I suspect if we went back in time 40 years, you find the same argument going on, except it would be enthusiasts for prewar designs telling us that modern IOR boats are crap and you want a proper man's boat like a pilot cutter.

I was in a bad gale in a gaff rigged Bristol Channel Pilot Cutter, Theodora (on loan to OYC) during he 1962 Tall Ships Race, a pic of us was front page in The Mirror, taken from a search aircraft checking the fleet, we were all sat on the rail yellow wellie racer style, shaken but not too stirred, Have been in many gales since and none are pleasant but modern boats can at least still make ground in most directions and don't need the 14 crew we had in 1962, even though the original pilot cutters usually just had skipper and a 'boy'.

 

[doug748]

The Longue route was not fully crewed, it was solo.

And the point about it being away from the bad weather is exactly the point I was making... That's what weather routing does!

To be clear I am not claiming that faced with the same weather that Beneteau would have necessarily fared better (though it is larger, and that is a big factor) but that the best defense against getting rolled, dismasted etc in bad weather is not to get caught by the bad weather... And it's a lot easier to do that if your boat is faster and you have good weather routing.

Looks like we are both saying similar things then.

Though I am not sure the original question devolves to things like Southern Ocean races. Some (not particularly extreme) modern racer/cruisers can trip up and stay upside down and it seems good sense if the figures point this out to prospective owners.

Pierre Huglo Said this:

"................ I had Just lost my Pogo 850 which capsized and remained upside down for more than a month, 500 miles west of Brittany"

He may, or may not, have avoided this with live weather information but it's a secondary consideration. Huglo is no mug, he bought a different type, circumnavigated and arguably put up the most impressive performance in either the GGR or Longue Route.


Apologies, I thought Tolan had taken on crew, false memory syndrome.


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[jwilson]

The UFO 34 is actually a pretty good boat for ordinary heavy weather - some time after the extreme conditions off Iceland that inverted her whilst running under bare pole we went to windward very efficiently in an ordinary gale in the Irish Sea. These days there's not much more fastish boat you can get for the money than a UFO34. And the not dissimilar but rather more expensive She 36 is an even better boat despite a lower ballast ratio.

 

[Birdseye]

UFO 34 Black Arrow (RAF club boat) not only survived but finished and won her class in 1979 Fastnet I'd have one in a heartbeat.

That was 40 years ago. Would you compare a 40 year old car with a modern one? Of course not - the world makes progress over the years

Any moment now we will get on to long keels and encapsulated keels and gaff rig and why the old sailors knew their stuff.

 

[Laminar Flow]

That was 40 years ago. Would you compare a 40 year old car with a modern one? Of course not - the world makes progress over the years

Woah, I got called out on the car analogy, muggings is where it's at. Analogies are traps for the the unwary.

Progress is not linear and not necessarily unidirectional.

Yacht design, more than any other technical field has been influenced by so many other factors that have nothing to do with any kind of technical progress and are often deliberately contrary to such. Boats designed specifically to be rule beaters are very much a point in case.
The super beamy, pinched ends with lack of buoyancy and speed-zapping steep buttock lines, tiny mainsail rigs of the IOR breed belong to this particular group.
What makes a boat fast, including fin keels and separate rudders with much reduced wetted area, the shallow buttock lines and flat runs of light displacement was known and tried over 120 years ago and the much touted, superior foils we employ now-a-days are also over a century old.
The real progress in yacht design has been in the construction and the development of of new, stronger and lightweight materials that will keep it all stuck together.
Now we just need to develop a new, stronger human, able to resist the demands of such progress.

 

[Robin]

The UFO 34 is actually a pretty good boat for ordinary heavy weather - some time after the extreme conditions off Iceland that inverted her whilst running under bare pole we went to windward very efficiently in an ordinary gale in the Irish Sea. These days there's not much more fastish boat you can get for the money than a UFO34. And the not dissimilar but rather more expensive She 36 is an even better boat despite a lower ballast ratio.

SHE 36 a gentleman's cruiser , great to sail for sure but a bit short on space below as I recall on the one we charted for company's YC. race weekend.

 

[Aquaboy]

PlumDuff mentions gaff rig......... well aren't " Fat Head" mains sort of heading back to that shape.

How long before someone pokes a lightweight stick up above a Fat Head and reinvents the topsail !

 

[tsekul]

We have a pogo 8.50 the older version of the 30. Very stable, sure footed.
Our previous boat was a GK29.
because it is so wide it does not roll around compared to the GK29.
You never have to fight rudder and we haven’t broached yet when many around us on the race course are.
Dont get one if you want to win any races as the handicaps are horrific. Tends to stop dead in a chunky short chop but does get going again quickly. Doesn’t point as high as a lot of boats, which is one reason it’s hard to sail to handicap round the cans.
T