RNLI callout statistics put safety issues in perspective

Tranona said:
So, why do you seem to object to other "experienced sailors" taking the opposite view and heaping mounds of evidence to support that view? You are only relying on your "perception" of danger which is very subjective.

As has been suggested many times, you might do better to look at the available evidence first before forming a view, rather than stating your view, then desperately looking for some supporting evidence - and usually failing.
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What is it about " you may have a different opinion" that you do not understand?
 
Rigger Mortice

You sir, are a liar.

Your initial thread title in this whole debate was "Fire;the biggest danger in boating" and you have never retracted that statement.
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Nor do I intend to. I have repeatedly said that it is my opinion and I have said why it is my opinion. You may not agree with that but that does not make me a liar.

When I posted US figures, and then RNLI figures, you attempted to say that they were either out of date, misleading, weighted incorrectly, selectively quoted/cherry picked, or otherwise wrong for a host of reasons. You have repeatedly told us about your abilities to handle figures to fully understand what they are telling us.
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When you learn about numerators and denominators then you can accuse me of not knowing about numbers. You included rubbish figures in presenting the fire risk at 1%. I am not talking about the occurrence of incidents but how I perceive the potential gravity of a fire compared with other risks. You may not agree; that does not make me liar.
You have told us that most people agree with you and that has been disproven. You then claim that you have common sense on your side.
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When I said that it was based on the responses on the thread to the moment I said that. That Searush subsequently constructs a poll which shows the fire risk to be in second place, I do not agree with that. That my opinion differs from others does not make me a liar.

You have repeatedly been asked to either quote figures to support your case, or your calculations to show how you arrive at your conclusions. You have repeatedly avoided doing so and have continued to try to fudge figures that do not support your stance.
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When I am stating what I consider to the greatest risk in boating I do not have to provide figures. I only entered into the numbers questions when it was obvious you did not understand the significance of the numbers you were quoting to support your case.

Only after the whole discussion had gone on for many, many pages did you start to try to tweak what you had been saying and to metamorphose it into "what I fear most".....but that sleight of hand has been obvious for all to see.
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I didn't tweak anything at all. I stated my position from the outset "Fire - the biggest danger in boating". Remember we are talking in the context of competent sailors, not the idiots who get themselves cut off by the tide which, in no way reflects on a competent sailor yet influences the percentages, along with many other similar idiotic incidents : RNLI interventions where there was thought to a problem but there wasn't. That you do not agree is your prerogative. However polite responses are not your thing.

Once more, I challenge you to either support your assertion that "Fire is the biggest danger in boating" by producing the figures to support it, or your calculations based on the figures that I have placed on the table, or retracting your initial assertion and apologising.
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See above.

If you don't want to do that, we can move onto MAIB figures which further support my case. We can then move onto Australian and Kiwi figures which I am confident will do as well. I'll leave you to produce the French figures, but I'm sure you've already looked but decided not to shoot yourself in the foot with them.
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See above.


You accuse me of being a fool and a liar. I'll let the moderators judge that one. I would respond to this by saying that both you and I know (if for once you were being honest) that your hostility has nothing whatsoever to do with safety issues at sea.
 
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Sybarite said:
You accuse me of being a fool and a liar. I'll let the moderators judge that one. I would respond to this by saying that both you and I know (if for once you were being honest) that your hostility has nothing whatsoever to do with safety issues at sea.
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Oh dear, Sybarite.

You came on the forum announcing that Fire is the biggest danger in boating. That simple statement was challenged and you were presented with figures to show why you were wrong. You repeatedly attempted to trash those figures......why try to trash figures if you were only stating an opinion?????? and only after you realise that you don't have a leg to stand on you change tack and claim that it is merely an "opinion" and, furthermore, that you are in the majority. You then try once more to dismiss the figures by effectively saying that anyone who has an accident from anything other than fire is not competent.
You continue with your pompous assertions about your ability to handle figures, yet you do not demonstrate the slightest ability to do just that. And even now you refuse to accept the evidence from around the world which shows you to be wrong.

You then priggishly instruct others to not tell you what your opinion is, then churlishly try to lecture me about my attitude to you. You fling insults around.....not very effectively...and complain that others aren't being nice to you. And then you have the audacity to tell others that they have got the figures all wrong!!!!!

Then to top it all diddums wants to call on the moderators to get him out of difficulty.

You have said we need to look behind the figures, yet you have only attempted to dismiss them as being irrelevant. There has been no analysis, no calculations, no explanation about why they are misleading. Just the stark, unsupported statement of what you now, late in the day. make out to be "opinion".

I say again. Produce the figures to show why fire is "the greatest danger in boating".
 
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Sybarite said:
What is it about " you may have a different opinion" that you do not understand?
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Don't have a problem with "opinions" - we all have them. Do, however have a problem with them being expressed as "facts" in spite of the evidence to the contrary.

I fully respect your FEAR of fire on board - would be stupid not to be afraid, but your claim that it is the "biggest danger" is not supportable. Even worse when you start dismissing data that does not support your pet theory.

So, lets be clear. Fire at sea is not a significant cause of accidents at sea. Every single piece of evidence that RM has posted confirms this. There is also enough evidence where more detailed data is collected to show that fire is largely confined to specific situations involving specific kinds of boats - that is small, inboard petrol powered sportsboats. Such boats are a small minority of boats in use in northern (European) coastal waters and therefore the number of fire related incidents in these locations is very small.
 
pmagowan said:
Some people find it very hard to admit when they are wrong. They tend to dig deeper rather than dig out.
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When I say that fire is what I apprehend the most you cannot say that I am wrong. You are always preaching logic. You may not agree with me but you cannot say that I am wrong.
 
Sybarite said:
When I say that fire is what I apprehend the most you cannot say that I am wrong. You are always preaching logic. You may not agree with me but you cannot say that I am wrong.
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Nobody disputes your fear, or your opinion, we just want you to admit that fire is NOT the biggest danger, even if you fear it most, and the data proves that it is not. Go on, admit it, you know it makes sense.
 
Sybarite said:
When I say that fire is what I apprehend the most you cannot say that I am wrong. You are always preaching logic. You may not agree with me but you cannot say that I am wrong.
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Not wrong to be afraid of fire - just wrong to claim it is the "biggest danger". You are confusing the thing you fear most with the things that are more likely to happen - two very different propositions.
 
Tranona said:
You are confusing the thing you fear most with the things that are more likely to happen - two very different propositions.
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No I am not and you have not read apparently what I have written. I have reviewed all the other types of incidents described and it is not the fact that they happen more often that is important as far as I am concerned. It is rather the consequence of those incidents which one needs to consider. I believe that I have at least a strategy to deal with, dismasting, MOB, machinery breakdown etc which would be easier to implement than the consequence of a fire where you may not be able to access the interior to get your gear or to send a mayday. I was reading today of a person who was killed when a short circuit caused by an overload on a windlass sparked off a gas explosion. His wife was catapulted into the sea but survived.

I have assisted dismasted yachts, I have brought my own boat in to port with the dinghy attached alongside, I have sailed onto moorings when I had diesel bug, I have dealt with having the steering chain break in a gale, having the metal hanks physically tear open on the storm jib in a 60 knt squall, having the mainsheet traveller explode in a gale, we have done MOB exercices, I have assisted boats lost in fog etc etc. These are what I consider to be basic skills which any offshore sailor should have at least the beginning of an answer for.

However, with an explosion and a fire often you have no warning, it literally can come out of the blue; you only have to look at the destruction tests carried out by YW last year.

So, I maintain that I believe a fire is the greatest danger on a boat when taken in the context of competent sailors. For the last time you may not agree with me. That's your problem, not mine.

Out.
 
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Oh dear, Sybarite does have an unusual understanding of safety matters on boats.

He has strategies, and "the beginning of an answer", for dealing with everything else but no strategy for fire? (Sybarite, a hint; fire prevention first, fire fighting second, abandon ship third)

He tells us that Fire is "out of the blue", but dismasting's, MoB's, hitting a submerged object, a keel falling off, a rudder being lost, all happen slowly and with plenty of warning?? Even a collision can happen very quickly; one minute everything is Ok, a moment later the boat is holed. The nature of accidents is that mostly they are sudden and unexpected......except on Yacht Sybarite, when only fire is like that. Other than fire, his astonishingly high level of competence can see him through all the other risks (which are also more likely to occur).

It's such a pity he's given up. We could learn so much from him.

Perhaps, he would also explain if he still has gas on his boat? Surely he should have got rid of it long ago?
 
Sybarite said:
However, with an explosion and a fire often you have no warning, it literally can come out of the blue; you only have to look at the destruction tests carried out by YW last year.

So, I maintain that I believe a fire is the greatest danger on a boat when taken in the context of competent sailors.
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What about meteor strike? There's a chance that you can do something about a fire, but there is little argument to be had with a chunk of extraterrestrial rock doing Mach 3.
 
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