RNLI callout statistics put safety issues in perspective

Think you will find the ranking of "causes" is fairly consistent over time. Fire at sea is very rare. More likely when moored (refuelling, use of gas appliances etc) and not requiring lifeboats! Interestingly fire much more common in US because of the large numbers of petrol powered boats.
 
It also interestingly shows that most call outs take place in F3 winds!

When considering danger in the context of sailing, it's not so much the frequency of an issue that matters so much as the severity IMHO.

Also attitude and experience will have a huge effect on whether the lifeboat is called out. One man's emergency is another man's minor challenge. As a consequence there will be a number of incidents that more experienced and resilient crews have resolved without involving the lifeboat and hence are not reflected in the stats.

Similarly some regard the RNLI as a "get you home service" and others as an absolute last resort.

When I was preparing for a delivery trip from the Med to the UK I seem to recall that the biggest single danger of serious injury at sea was quoted as scalds and burns in the galley.
 
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Rigger Mortice said:
Some interesting figures here

http://issuu.com/rnli/docs/13-1046_rnli_operational_statistics?e=1678078/7911278

Page 8 lists the reasons for call outs

Fire is less than 1%. Even less than "Sail failure/dismasting" or "Steering failure"
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As you obviously want to use a sledgehammer to crack a nut, I would remind you of the saying "There are lies, damned lies and statistics".

This is a wonderful example of that saying. First let's again look at the context of Scuttlebutt. We are talking of responsible and mostly experienced sailors. You say that fire only represents 1% of RNLI interventions. You ought to then look to see what is included in the 99%.

Machinery failure - by far the largest = 19.2%. I have had engine failure a few times but I have sailed back to port. I don't fear it it as such.
People thought to have been in trouble (but weren't ?) = 10.5% What can I say?
Person missing = 6.3% On my boat...??
Cut off by the tide = 5% That happens a lot on a cruising boat.....
Fouled propellor = 3.5% See machinery failure.
Capsize = 3% I really really don't worry about that; I don't own a Bavaria....
Adverse conditions = 2.9% You don't go out in them or if you are caught out, experience will help.
Leaks/swamping = 2.8% Tackle the leak or use your liferaft.

Various others :

Person ill, vessel adrift, Out of fuel (!), person stranded, ambulance call, sail failure, person to be taken ashore, vessel unsure of position, vessel dragging anchor, trapped in motor vehicle(!!!), aircraft crashed (heads down everybody...), VHF blocked, unexploded mine (now that's frightening...), fishing gear snagged (Wellrigged watch your tackle...!), flooding......etc

I maintain that fire is what I fear the most.
 
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A friend of mine got towed into Falmouth last week. Diesel bug and zip wind. Bit of a hazard under the circumstances.

On a delivery trip from Antigua to Pompey via the Azores.
 
capnsensible said:
A friend of mine got towed into Falmouth last week. Diesel bug and zip wind. Bit of a hazard under the circumstances.

On a delivery trip from Antigua to Pompey via the Azores.
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I had diesel bug going from Ireland to Scilly. I sailed onto the mooring using a triple reefed main and only a small part of the genoa in order to be able to manouvre quickly without needing winch handles to tack. I did the same on my first trip there when the autopilot had flattened the battery. You learn by experience.
 
Sybarite said:
I maintain that fire is what I fear the most.
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Having had one and know it can hurt (me not boat), I am not going to say its not something that is not high on my list of concerns. I just do not consider it being the biggest danger, for me that's would be going overboard. Particularly as I am not the greatest at wearing life-jackets..
 
Sybarite said:
I had diesel bug going from Ireland to Scilly. I sailed onto the mooring using a triple reefed main and only a small part of the genoa in order to be able to manouvre quickly without needing winch handles to tack. I did the same on my first trip there when the autopilot had flattened the battery. You learn by experience.
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I put on another thread on dangers about engine failure. Its not always possible to sail in somewhere, but a good feeling when you do!

A few examples of my own:

Jenneau 37. Ceuta to Gib. Knckered electrics. Sailed out of the marina, total lack of wind back in lee of Rock, south entrance, drifting on tide. Got towed.

Jenneau 37 (different one) Off east side of Gib, heading in. Blocked water inlet. Spigot broke off inlet valve whilst trying to clear. Got into North of Gib Bay, got a tow.

Moody 33. Antigua to St Lucia. Engine packed in, diesel bug. After nearly 24 hours got into Rodney Bay and anchored. The cut to the marina was a bit tight for sailing so got a tow.

Have successfully sailed into a number of harbours though. Bergen was difficult on a Prout Cat!

Anyway, enough name dropping of places and Im sure one person will tell me these dits are apocryphal, even though I was there......:rolleyes:
 
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Sybarite said:
As you obviously want to use a sledgehammer to crack a nut, I would remind you of the saying "There are lies, damned lies and statistics".

This is a wonderful example of that saying. First let's again look at the context of Scuttlebutt. We are talking of responsible and mostly experienced sailors. You say that fire only represents 1% of RNLI interventions. You ought to then look to see what is included in the 99%.

Machinery failure - by far the largest = 19.2%. I have had engine failure a few times but I have sailed back to port. I don't fear it it as such.
People thought to have been in trouble (but weren't ?) = 10.5% What can I say?
Person missing = 6.3% On my boat...??
Cut off by the tide = 5% That happens a lot on a cruising boat.....
Fouled propellor = 3.5% See machinery failure.
Capsize = 3% I really really don't worry about that; I don't own a Bavaria....
Adverse conditions = 2.9% You don't go out in them or if you are caught out, experience will help.
Leaks/swamping = 2.8% Tackle the leak or use your liferaft.

Various others :

Person ill, vessel adrift, Out of fuel (!), person stranded, ambulance call, sail failure, person to be taken ashore, vessel unsure of position, vessel dragging anchor, trapped in motor vehicle(!!!), aircraft crashed (heads down everybody...), VHF blocked, unexploded mine (now that's frightening...), fishing gear snagged (Wellrigged watch your tackle...!), flooding......etc

I maintain that fire is what I fear the most.
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Do your beloved French rescue services publish similar statistics? Bet if they did the results would be somewhat similar.
It is oh so easy for people with limited imagination to condemn others for being seemingly foolish.

On the fire issue you are confusing the probability of an event occurring with the consequences. Fire is low probability, potentially severe consequences - therefore sensible people guard against it. The probability falls and as result it comes near the bottom of the list as a cause of emergency at sea.
 
I'd also point out that the RNLI statistic of 1% fire is quite likely to be substantially reduced in future years since I have now ripped out my Taylor's paraffin cooker and replaced it with gas.
 
Tranona said:
Do your beloved French rescue services publish similar statistics? Bet if they did the results would be somewhat similar.
It is oh so easy for people with limited imagination to condemn others for being seemingly foolish.

On the fire issue you are confusing the probability of an event occurring with the consequences. Fire is low probability, potentially severe consequences - therefore sensible people guard against it. The probability falls and as result it comes near the bottom of the list as a cause of emergency at sea.
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I'm disappointed with you. Your responses are normally well constructed but when you descend into sarcasm, it doesn't do your arguments any good. Somehow you have constructed my response as a criticism of the RNLI. It isn't. They have correctly described their interventions. It is the interpretation of those statistics in the context of a competent cruising population that I have issue with. Getting to people in a trapped motor vehicle, or to those stranded on a beach, or coming to the rescuue of a crashed aircraft in no way should enter into the denominator and affect the percentage which is applied to a fire risk.

What we are talking about is the perception of danger. Therefore there is a certain element of subjectivity in the position.

So, as far as I am concerned, it is the danger of fire that would worry me more than any other of the risks presented.

PS Using statistics you could say that the bed is the most dangerous place to be because that's where most people die.
 
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I think everyone is confusing the RNLI`s stat for fire on board is the overall fires recorded on a boat in a season....it's not. The 0.9% is just the ones they were called too.
 
Sybarite said:
As you obviously want to use a sledgehammer to crack a nut, I would remind you of the saying "There are lies, damned lies and statistics".

Leaks/swamping = 2.8% Tackle the leak or use your liferaft.

Various others :


I maintain that fire is what I fear the most.
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It's pretty obvious that you are a nut who needs cracking with a sledgehammer.

I really don't care what you fear; it is of no consequence. What does matter is that you go around telling people that fire is the most dangerous thing in boating. It is not. By a long way. No amount of your attempts to play with figures can alter that and your rather hackneyed use of the cliched "damn lies" quote does not change the fact that your claim that fire is the most dangerous thing in boating is a blatant lie. In this case, Sybarite, the lie is from you, not the statistics.

As for your feeble attempt to trivialise other boating incidents, let's just take your last one:
Leaks/swamping = 2.8% Tackle the leak or use your liferaft.

Gosh! That is so informative. Not many hereabouts would realise that if they are in danger of being swamped they should do something about it and, if that fails, they may have to abandon their boat. If I had realised it I would never have suggested that roughly three times more callouts for this cause could possibly mean that it may just be three times more likely than fire.

What I would like to do, is to take your valuable lesson and apply it to "the biggest danger in boating"...... Just bear with me on this Sybarite, I need to check that I have taken your lessons on risk management on board.....using your approach I would suggest that we say

Fire=<1% Tackle the fire or use your liferaft.

There. That was easy.
Dunno what happens to boaters who don't have a liferaft though.


Fire is a risk in boating. But it is way down the list. Other risks are far greater, and the evidence clearly shows that. For somebody who claims to be so experienced at handling figures you show a remarkable inability to be able to accept evidence that clearly trashes your preconceived ideas.

I say again.....show us the evidence that fire is the biggest danger in boating.
 
MrB said:
I think everyone is confusing the RNLI`s stat for fire on board is the overall fires recorded on a boat in a season....it's not. The 0.9% is just the ones they were called too.
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I think we all realise that. Just as their figures for everything else are only for the ones they are called to. Whether you fix your engine, or put out a fire, if you go on your way without calling the lifeboat, it is much the same. You won't appear on the RNLI stats.
 
I've never trusted the RNLI figures since we were 'rescued'. We were on the way from the Hamble to Eastbourne as we approached Eastbourne under sail I went to start the engine and there was a big bang. We kept sailing and called the marina which has a lock, saying we could sail into the basin but could the marina boat take us through the lock and to a berth please, they said yes. A few minutes later the lifeboat called us and said they would collect us and drop us in the basin, I said no need the marina will do that, they insisted and had told the marina what they were going to do. When we finally got onto a pontoon the lifeboat skipper came to see us and said that the crew were there every Friday afternoon and they wanted to practice which we had no problem with.

However in the next issue of the local paper said we had been rescued by the RNLI naming our boat. We have never supported the RNLI since their outright lie and a non-rescue added their stats. I wonder how many times they do that.
 
Sybarite said:
What we are talking about is the perception of danger. Therefore there is a certain element of subjectivity in the position.
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No we are not. We are talking about the hard evidence not a perception based on fresh air. There is nothing subjective about proper risk management when you have clear data to work with.
 
Rigger Mortice said:
No we are not. We are talking about the hard evidence not a perception based on fresh air. There is nothing subjective about proper risk management when you have clear data to work with.
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Surely it would simply be more honest for you to say that you don't like me? Then let viewers review your contributions in that context.
 
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