Princess doing well

Princess have had plenty of practice at drafting press releases where financial data is concerned. They have for many years picked accounting policies that flatter their profits and structures that make their substantial bank debt less visible. But none of that fixes their longstanding failure to generate cash or takes the debt away, despite the fact their designs are very good and they sell a lot of boats . They are a disastrous investment for their private equity fund owner- deeply underwater. You have to hope the new CEO (as of couple of yrs ago) can turn it around.
 
So far it's one of their best shows ever. They have sold 3 x 75s and a bunch of other stuff.

I think JFM is not discussing sales but more that something is wrong how finances are managed.
If they do not turn around there books (- to +) with the market very healthy when are they going to do it.

ATM market is very good, new boats are selling again. All big brands Beneteau Group, Azimut/Benetti Group, Ferretti Group, Princess, Sunseeker, Sanlorenzo have double digit growth.
The market between the 50 - 100 feet is all for there to take. If you are one of the above it is a very easy market atm.
It was never that easy for them since the clever boy Monti managed to screw all medium sized semi custom Italian builders in these sizes couple years ago.
Which btw used to dominate big time in these sizes. An unknown name for you like Alalunga sold four by 78s in 2004 when I was at Genoa (five days).
Alalunga is not existing / building atm though I know of a famous sailing boat builder interested in buying it.
I am telling all this so one understands the weight the small medium italian builders used to have in these sizes.

But it want stay like that forever, so that is why questions are asked if your finances are not so good.
 
So if they've sold 90% of 2018 production, presumably without much discount because why would you that far in advance (very different to having stock boats gathering weed and interest payments), what is it that those who know about these things believe they are doing wrong?

To a non financial expert like me, it seems like they're doing really well - the goal is to sell production and they're doing it.
 
I suppose a lot of 2017 production was sold in 2016, maybe even 2015, when the outlook wasn't quite as good, so the boats may have been discounted more to get the orders in. It's also likely that Princess hedged the euro/$ sales at time of order, so some of 2017 production may have been hedged at pre-referendum rates. It may also take some time to lift production capacity to meet the higher demand. These things could explain why they only forecast to break even in 2017, despite full order books. As jfm says, they may also have done some profit taking on boats in build in prior years.

In 2018 with less discounts, full advantage of GBP weakness, and some extra capacity they are forecasting significant profits, and they've already sold 90% of the product. Sounds pretty good to me.
 
I think Princess are notable in that they have continued to invest right across the range to a point where now there are no "old" models in the line up. That has cost money but left them in a very strong position moving forwards. At the time it was a bold move after 2008 and required investors who were in it for the long term but I suspect when 2018 trading is accounted for things will look rosy. I dont have JFM's knowledge of corporate accounts but my understanding is that any figures out there will be out of date by probably a year or two.

What Princess probably will be trying to do is ramp up production a bit to get to a point where more boats leave the factory on an annual basis. It can be hard to discover how many boats are actually built by builders as they all want to big themselves up. The true test is speaking to suppliers. Each boat needs 2 engines :)

Certainly going by confirmed sales on here we know that Princess are selling boats.

Henry :)
 
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I think Princess are notable in that they have continued to invest right across the range to a point where now there are no "old" models in the line up. That has cost money but left them in a very strong position moving forwards. At the time it was a bold move after 2008 and required investors who were in it for the long term but I suspect when 2018 trading is accounted for things will look rosy. I dont have JFM's knowledge of corporate accounts but my understanding is that any figures out there will be out of date by probably a year or two.

What Princess probably will be trying to do is ramp up production a bit to get to a point where more boats leave the factory on an annual basis. It can be hard to discover how many boats are actually built by builders as they all want to big themselves up. The true test is speaking to suppliers. Each boat needs 2 engines :)

Certainly going by confirmed sales on here we know that Princess are selling boats.

Henry :)
Yup. We're focussing on different things. Sales look good and the model line up is fresh and big. I'm talking about cash flow and returns to equity investors, which are different things. As regards out of date, yes for published accounts but no for street knowledge. The debt number in the last published accounts (which is the first time published accounts revealed it because they had to restructure the debt) is ballpark up to date.
They could have a great period now and generate profits and cash, and I hope they do. Alas it looks like the equity investors wont have a great time on this one but hey ho you win some you lose some:encouragement:
 
Alas it looks like the equity investors wont have a great time on this one but hey ho you win some you lose some:encouragement:

Well according to the article they're chucking £100,000,000 of investment in so they can't be too pessimistic...
 
Well according to the article they're chucking £100,000,000 of investment in so they can't be too pessimistic...
No way is £100m new equity going into the company from the shareholders.

As I said at the start, Princess aren't bad at drafting press releases :D Read it again: they are embarking on a £100m program and they have launched a £100m plan. That is WAY different from actually spending an incremental £100m in the nearish future.
 
See, this is why we ask smart guys like you to decipher it for us thickies that sat at the back of the class not paying enough attention! :D

That's interesting, thanks.
 
No way is £100m new equity going into the company from the shareholders.

As I said at the start, Princess aren't bad at drafting press releases :D Read it again: they are embarking on a £100m program and they have launched a £100m plan. That is WAY different from actually spending an incremental £100m in the nearish future.

Bit like my local council announcing a £9B infrastructure upgrade plan...When they find £9B they will, no doubt, implement it. :D
 
I'm clearly going to show you why I don't invest money in businesses here but with someone like Princess isn't it the case that whilst the money men have sunk some money in over the years if they can get to a point where Princess have a good product line up and healthy sales then someone else will come along and say hello, can I buy the company please. Dalian Wanda bought Sunseeker for £320 million I believe. Strip away all the hype and I'd say Princess has a better product line up than Sunseeker with some good representation around the world. Sunseeker have just sacked half their dealers because they were under performing.

How much do the money people behind Princess need to see back to make a modest profit ?

Henry :)

edited to say I'm embarking on purchasing a new 40m motor yacht and have launched a £20 million plan which starts with £20 in my TSB savers club account :)
 
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I'm clearly going to show you why I don't invest money in businesses here but with someone like Princess isn't it the case that whilst the money men have sunk some money in over the years if they can get to a point where Princess have a good product line up and healthy sales then someone else will come along and say hello, can I buy the company please. Dalian Wanda bought Sunseeker for £320 million I believe. Strip away all the hype and I'd say Princess has a better product line up than Sunseeker with some good representation around the world. Sunseeker have just sacked half their dealers because they were under performing.

How much do the money people behind Princess need to see back to make a modest profit ?

Henry :)

edited to say I'm embarking on purchasing a new 40m motor yacht and have launched a £20 million plan which starts with £20 in my TSB savers club account :)
I don't think anyone at Dalian would be confident of making a return on their Sunseeker investment. It clearly wasn't made with a decent return in mind, but they so far have been great shareholders. Phil Popham has done a stunning job at Sunny to date, and some great plans for the future too. With their deep pockets, Dalian appear to be in for the long term, as they have been with the majority of their overseas investments.

Are you Cloud Funding your new yacht :D
 
I'm clearly going to show you why I don't invest money in businesses here but with someone like Princess isn't it the case that whilst the money men have sunk some money in over the years if they can get to a point where Princess have a good product line up and healthy sales then someone else will come along and say hello, can I buy the company please. Dalian Wanda bought Sunseeker for £320 million I believe. Strip away all the hype and I'd say Princess has a better product line up than Sunseeker with some good representation around the world. Sunseeker have just sacked half their dealers because they were under performing.

How much do the money people behind Princess need to see back to make a modest profit ?

Henry :)

edited to say I'm embarking on purchasing a new 40m motor yacht and have launched a £20 million plan which starts with £20 in my TSB savers club account :)
Dalian/Sunseeker was an amazing price but wont be repeated unless someone gets lucky. The Chinese are obviously not making any outbound investments right now.

Yep someone will buy it (that's the whole idea for Princess's current owner) but they will pay for ebitda not sales and model line ups, which are a mere means to the ebitda end. I don't have the numbers to hand but from roughly current memory the current owners needs £200m for the business to make a mere single digit IRR. Add the 35m (iirc) debt and you need 235 enterprise value. On a multiple of 10 (pretty hopeful...) that needs 23.5m or normalised cash earnings. Unless fortunes turn up very substantially, that business isn't making £23.5m. Plus, the private equity market is scared of boatbuilders after losing lots of money (and in two cases the whole firm) on most boat investments (FL/sunseeker excluded). Think ferretti, Canados, Oyster, Fairline, Bavaria. (That said, plenty of investors have made money with private capital: azimuth, FL, Graham Beck/Renwick, etc)
 
So it isn't an insurmountable hurdle then.

£24 million over 300 boat sales is £80k per lump. With each boat averaging £2 million that would be 4% profit. If the average price per boat is £1.5 million you're talking 5.3% profit.

Clearly I'm a couple of quid short myself but you can see how someone might be tempted. Given the emotional appeal of owning a luxury yacht brand maybe the current owners will come out smelling of roses?

Oh and just to save everyone else looking it up as I had to: EBITDA :)

Henry :)
 
the private equity market is scared of boatbuilders after losing lots of money
How true - and how sad.
PE investors made silly amounts of money with pleasure boats for a longish period, and now they are scared by the losses.
If only they would have asked to an old boatbuilder (and I mean, ANY old boatbuilder) before targeting this industry, he would have warned them that this has always been a roller-coaster market.
Ok, the last crisis was arguably the worst and the longest. Even more so, relatively speaking, because it happened right after the stronger and longer bubble. But, so what?
The fact that some folks whose job is essentially to understand how a business is like, in order to decide when it's time to buy or sell it, are now "scared" by an industry (regardless of which), goes a long way in telling how amateurs they are.
Sounds like deciding to not have showers anymore after one when the heater was off and the water was too cold...
Not that I find this surprising, anyway. :ambivalence:
 
Oh and just to save everyone else looking it up as I had to: EBITDA
Forget the theory, H.
Do you want to know what the EBITDA is in real world, when you are the CFO of a company owned by PE investors?
The number which you must show in your year-end statement no matter what, whenever the shareholders decide to sell.
Tell me what EBITDA you want your business to report for one given year, and I'll make it up for you.
Sure, that can't be done forever, but... Hey-ho!
 
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