geem
Well-known member
Going East to West you will be in Trades or looking for them. I generally got messages saying you need to go more South?
PredictWind - Wow! I feel like I’ve been well and truly fleeced
- Thread starter KeelsonGraham
- Start date
franksingleton
Well-known member
Your comments confirm my cynicism about routing a slow moving vessel,
geem
Well-known member
On the last West to East crossing from Antigua to Horta we took 17 days. This was in 2020 in the middle of Covid. Once we arrived in Horta, nobody was allowed off their boat. We were all told to anchor in the harbour. You could go on the fuel dock for fuel and water but that was it. We had predominantly strong N wind whilst we were there. Our next stop was Cork which made it about a 1200nm sail to windward. All the boats heading for Northern Europe were stuck waiting for better weather. Our only entertainment was listening to everybody arriving and clearing in to Horta on the VHF. After three weeks we had 100 boats at anchor! The harbour was full and new arrivals had to anchor outside the harbour.
I kept a note of everybody's crossing times. We were 6th fastest. This included 60ft boats all the way down to a 28ft including multihulls. We averaged 6tks.
The reality of ocean sailing for a whole cross-section of yachts of all sizes, shapes and designs is that average speeds are low. It's not a race. Many are short handed and arriving safely is the main priority. On the West to East crossing you encounter wind from lots of different directions. Unlike coastal sailing with good weather forecasting, you can choose not to sail to windward. This crossing does not give you that luxury. We had two days hard on the wind with 20 to 28kts apparent and 2m seas. Not the end of the world but not comfortable and hard on the boat and rig. Many boats had similar experiences. Some were not so lucky with rig failure, dismasting, two with rudder failure, both spade rudders. Some with shredded sails, one guy had a jammed inmast reefing mainsail that meant he had to turn back to Horta and get a new sail sent from the UK. We watched him cut the old one off with a bread knife.
The point of all off this is that lots can happen on this crossing, good boat prep is essential and choosing the right time to leave and good weather can make a huge difference to the trip. there is only so much difference weather routing can do but it does make a difference
franksingleton
Well-known member
Thank you for that. Deterministic forecasts have a limit of around 8 days. That is a great improvement on the pre-computer era of my early days as a meteorologist. Wen ECMWF was created, it was thought that the absolute max was a fortnight but I very much doubt we will ever get that far and useful forecasts beyond 8-10 days will always be probabilistic.
KeelsonGraham
Well-known member
OK, first of all my apologies to PredictWind. They charge pro-rata for the first month. Not a whole month’s worth as I’d originally thought. Nevertheless, you’re still committed to a second month.
We used it on our recent Biscay crossing and found it easy to use. The updated forecasts each day were useful and reassuring. We didn’t have the external antenna but still got good signal strength on all but the heaviest swell days.
We used it on our recent Biscay crossing and found it easy to use. The updated forecasts each day were useful and reassuring. We didn’t have the external antenna but still got good signal strength on all but the heaviest swell days.
franksingleton
Well-known member
That really confirms what I have often said. You may prefer to use PW for its communications ease of use and presentation. You will not get a better forecast. There are other communications routes but I am not competent to give an opinion. There is also routing or not routing. Some like to be routed. Others concur with my cynicism. I leave it at that.
SandyP
Active member
Anyone tried this, new to me:
WORLDWIDE MARINE
RADIOFACSIMILE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
NATIONAL OCEANIC and ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WORLDWIDE MARINE
RADIOFACSIMILE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
NATIONAL OCEANIC and ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
geem
Well-known member
Herb Hillinger routed us West to East in 2005 when we used SSB. He was routing 70 boats per day at the time! All done for free! He kept us out of bad weather on that trip to Azores. Conditions were not easy. We had wind well forward of the beam for the whole trip accept the last day. Put me off catamarans?
Some boats chose to ignore his advice and we're getting way over 40 kts. It was funny listening to him telling them off.
franksingleton
Well-known member
Naturally, I remember Herb. I have no direct experience of his routing. All I can say is that I have heard contrary opinions of his routing. I was involved in routing as a supplier when the Met Office provided a routing service. Some of our customers were slow moving, 10 kt ships. This was in the early days of NWP. We were working with experienced ship captains. I do remember that routing slow moving ships bordered on the impossible. The service ceased because firms began automated services. Shipmasters preferred us but companies preferred the cheaper services.
St Peter Port wifi varies between poor to nil.
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franksingleton
Well-known member
It has been available for many years - 1950s? They did threaten to close it down because the technology is obsolete and equipment maintenance very expensive, see USCG HF Broadcasts Uncertainty - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window. I guess that large commercial vessels use the internet. Smaller vessels and some leisure sailors still carry Radiofax receivers. Years ago, we used a HF/SSB receiver and a laptop to receive charts when in the Med. You can do the same with Black Cat and a tablet Black Cat HF Weather Fax.
You can find schedules buried deep here WMO No. 9 Vol D Information for Shipping | World Meteorological Organization
franksingleton
Well-known member
Further to the above, see
Atlantic Ocean RADIOFAX Schedule
Pacific Ocean RADIOFAX Schedule
NHC Marine Radiofax Broadcast Schedule
Atlantic Ocean RADIOFAX Schedule
Pacific Ocean RADIOFAX Schedule
NHC Marine Radiofax Broadcast Schedule
geem
Well-known member
I remember him tell us that he had five different weather models as his disposal. None of them agreed with each other. He said that it was very interesting but it didn't help us lot out there.
We have been at sea a number of times as I know many people have, when weather just doesn't behave and is nothing like the forecast. Do you blame the person giving you the advise based off faulty information? You can only use what you have available. It seems to me that info has improved a lot since then. Certainly the means of getting forecasts cheaply with the likes of the Garmin Inreach has made a difference. On the East to West crossing in 2004 we had no SSB, chartpotter, sat phone or Inreach. We just got what we got
SandyP
Active member
You can get a computer adapter to receive the signals
Think i heard someone to it with raspberry pi
franksingleton
Well-known member
They use the sound signal hard wired to laptop or, as with Black Cat, by using sound through air. Ditto f for RTTY.
KeelsonGraham
Well-known member
Even with all the models downloadable on PredictWind, my starting point for assessing conditions is the Met Office synoptic chart for the Atlantic. This gives one a great feel for the movement of air masses and fronts. Then, after reviewing this, I look at the UKMO and ECMWF for guidance on how this might translate into wind and wave values.
franksingleton
Well-known member
Certainly good practice to have that overall view. Their synoptic charts will, of course, be heavily dependent on their model - as will all Met Services. My impression, no more than that, is that their worded forecasts are heavily dependent on model output. Some years ago, they did try to generate shipping forecasts direct from models but found it too difficult.