Met Office UK V 2M Forecast anomaly

[stranded]

Given we are planning a north bound passage from Audierne to Brest on the afternoon tide through the Raz tomorrow, this forecast from out of the blue has somewhat dampened my enthusiasm. It is totally out of step with other forecasts, on Windy at least, which are benign. I don’t know quite what is the right question to ask, so I’ll restrict myself to WTF!?

 

[tillergirl]

Watched the domestic local TV weather this evening. The chap said there is anomaly developing (he waved in the general direction of Brittany) tomorrow and then could - stressed could bring, heavy thunderstorms up from the channel to the south-east on Thursday (i.e. something off Brittany could develop tomorrow). He stressed that every model was currently disagreeing and the front developing could stay south of the UK coast. So it seems difficult to predict right now. All very vague.

 

[stranded]

Sorry, forgot to append the rather impressive screenshot:

 

[stranded]

Watched the domestic local TV weather this evening. The chap said there is anomaly developing (he waved in the general direction of Brittany) tomorrow and then could - stressed could bring, heavy thunderstorms up from the channel to the south-east on Thursday (i.e. something off Brittany could develop tomorrow). He stressed that every model was currently disagreeing and the front developing could stay south of the UK coast. So it seems difficult to predict right now. All very vague.

Thanks for that TG - hoped for a computer glitch but feared what you say. I am not well travellled but never seen such a sudden glaring contrast - think we’ll hang around for a couple more days - that’s more probably low probability but high impact risk than I am up for.

 

[tillergirl]

I think I would hang on. But perhaps 24 hours would show a more predictable development.

A PS. Have a look at https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/weather-forecast

This is a shorter bulletin but at the end you can see the developments predicted over Brittany. Chris Page is pretty good.

 

[jlavery]

Sorry, forgot to append the rather impressive screenshot:View attachment 162391

I've had similar with Windy on my Android phone.


This was from this morning. Quite disconcerting - but so far outside the bounds of reasonableness that I could discount it. It was behaving on my ipad, showing what was a reasonable progression from previous forecasts.

 

[Mister E]

The elevation says 9000m that's a bit high for a boat.

 

[jlavery]

The elevation says 9000m that's a bit high for a boat.

Well spotted! Over to you, @Buck Turgidson ?

Next time it happens, I'll check it's not user error (might well be).

 

[jlavery]

Well spotted! Over to you, @Buck Turgidson ?

Next time it happens, I'll check it's not user error (might well be).

Hmm... there's a slider on the menu where one can select altitude. I don't remember adjusting it (and it self corrected), so spurious UI input?

 

[Stemar]

The Met Office Deep Dive on You Tube was grumbling about unusual uncertainties for Thursday's weather - the models disagree about how things are going to develop in a way that's very rare just a couple of days ahead, so anything's possible.

 

[jlavery]

The Met Office Deep Dive on You Tube was grumbling about unusual uncertainties for Thursday's weather - the models disagree about how things are going to develop in a way that's very rare just a couple of days ahead, so anything's possible.

Yes, the Mountain Weather briefing (a really good resource for a general view) was saying the same.

 

[stranded]

That deep dive thing is really good. Every time I sit down to read more about weather I fall asleep, but that’s a way to learn stuff which is actually going to be practical in the next few days. Haven’t had a chance to watch the mountain one yet, but I will. Sitting out today - because that forecast spooked me; and tomorrow because now that seems to be the dodgy day, in Audierne, where atm there is barely a breath, but it is very humid, lending weight to the Met’s theory, though no one is forecasting storms now. Try again Friday. Retirement, hence time, is the greatest safety aid there is. It does though mean my experience is limited - I know I’ll get bitten one day by something I will have only theoretical knowledge of how to handle. But not today!

 

[dolabriform]

In Cherbourg at the moment, thunderstorms predicted for tomorrow.

 

[weustace]

Following this with interest as I was planning to sail for Roscoff from the Solent this morning. I wimped out when a 7 "at times" appeared in the Shipping Forecast - a bit much to do for me, for pleasure, solo in an elderly 24'er! That said, I had also observed the wrinkles in the UKV forecast for the Solent and adjacent areas in Windy, which were there yesterday but have now disappeared, forecasting F7+ in narrow bands either side of the Island.

Since it appeared only for one timestep, I assumed it would be discarded by human forecasters as a numerical anomaly, and was very willing to ignore it - it definitely looked that way to me, perhaps due to some funky output from an orographic model - but it seems they kept it. No sign of anything more than the ideal NW 3-4 that I was expecting so far, but it gave me an excuse for a lie-in...