Met Office Local Weather Forecast

[franksingleton]

Re: Met Office Local Weather Forecast and the

I remember way back when the Met Office introduced long range forecasts, they got a lot of stick when they got it wrong, and stopped doing those forecasts.
Perhaps they tailor the local forecasts to a period ahead for which the probability is high.

To some extent they do just that. Sometimes they give an outlook with some confidence for a week ahead. At other times they say, vary sensibly, that it is uncertain. Back in the 70s we only gave outlooks to three days' ahead and could reduce that to two days if we thought it necessary. It is not sensible to make predictions when there is much uncertainty. The question of probability forecasts is, of course, a different matter.