Maybe a big 1

[mandlmaunder]

Anyone got any info on this big low coming of Africa, GRIB.US show it turning into something Huge. And heading into the Windward Islands and Barbados.
I know this is early to try to find out where it's going, but I gotta ask!

 

[Bajansailor]

For Forum readers, here are some interesting weather sites for tracking this system :

Here is the Intellicast time loop satellite map :
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Here is the NOAA tropical weather discussion :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

CaribWx ( http://www.caribwx.com/marine.html ) had this to say about the system at 1000 today (27th) :
WAVE 32W, S of 25N, moving W@10-15, may develop Tropical LO near-or-N of 15N by weekend, but expected to track N of NE Caribbean MonSep1, and probably head toward Bermuda.
NE Caribbean & entire W Atlantic including Bahamas should monitor this, but no cause for concern yet.
I hope they are correct!

However Radio France appear to be saying it will develop into a Tropical Storm (my French is abysmally bad) re the forecast for the Western Trades (Alizes Ouest) at http://www.meteo.fr/marine/naviweb/bulletins/RFI.html

If it does develop, the Hurricane Watch net is very good : http://www.hwn.org/

I also have an interest in whats happening, as we shall be going to Tortola next week and sailing a yacht from the BVI's down to Barbados - not the ideal time of year to be doing this, I know.

 

[jeremyshaw]

Mark you presumably know about or are on the NOAA advisory mailing list, but others might find this link useful:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/signup.shtml

They are asking people to subscribe only if they really need it, rather than for interesting info, but I think those of us with boats in the Caribbean will qualify!

 

[capnsensible]

Another option. I rate it.

www.wunderground/tropical

In particular, the blog by Dr. Geoff Masters.

Watch for invest 95

 

[capnsensible]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Just learnt how do do this

 

[mandlmaunder]

Thanks guys, didn't have the wunderground site.
However, the one I am looking at is just coming off Africa now, shows on GRIB.US as heading for the Lesser Antilles on or around Thursday/Friday next week...and it looks fierce.
Seems to be appearing on Crown Weather too.

 

[KellysEye]

I'm a bit confused. Looking at UGRIB nothing is due to cross the island chain for the next seven days. There are two potential hurricanes one NE of and one some way out of the island chain but both are forecast to go north of the chain. At 06.00 4th Sept there are strong winds north and south of the Cape Verdes over the African coast. I'm not aware of any forecast tracks for this, should it develop.

So I'm not quite sure what you've seen to ask the question.

 

[arfa]

Another useful hurricane tracker is tropicalstormrisk

It's a tool used by the insurance industry so I guess it has some value

 

[KellysEye]

Ah, got it now. Just looked at UGRIB latest and something nasty looks to be hitting the chain next Thurs/Fri (centre c. St Lucia). There's yet another one behind it but it due to go north of the chain. And yet another just off Africa, but too early to tell where it's going. Given that September is normally the peak month it's certainly hotting up

 

[HoratioHB]

My first season monitoring this and I've been mainly watching the NOAA site and as of writing they have Gustav over Haiti and Hannah (not too violent) going NNW and fairly clear. Over the Atlantic there is a mid ocean depression looking fairly benign and a possible nasty one still over the African coast. Looks busy but nothing too serious at the mo. Is this like the UK sites where you can pick any number of forecasts until you find the one you like!!?? or don't!!!!???

 

[KellysEye]

>where you can pick any number of forecasts until you find the one you like

Like it.

On a serious note obviously the models can vary but they usually come together as things develop. We also look at NOAA but they don't look far ahead and generally say things such as 'this system has the potential to develop (or not)'.

At the moment NOAA talks about TS Hanna NNE of the chain and three tropical waves out in the Atlantic. It doesn't say whether any of the three might develop.

The GFS model at the moment has changed dramatically since yesterday (as it did from yesterday morning to evening)showing only one wave developing and now looking as though it will go north of the island chain.

It's the old story I suppose, NOAA tells it as it is, models estimate and nobody really knows what will happen until something is three of four days away.