June onwards - hurricanes N Atlantic

[sarabande]

NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season.

So that's an S1 normal distribution gone for another burton, then ?

forecast clicky

 

[oldsaltoz]

Thank god, we just finished our lot. Australia's cyclone season is usually November to April. Cyclones mainly affect coastal areas in the northern half of the continent.

Now we only have Bush fires killing hundreds, and flooding that in some areas is a one in 200 year event.

Still, not complaining, the rest of the time the weather is just fine.

That forecast sounds like a game of two-up with 50% chance of winning or loosing a bundle.

Avagoodweekend......

PS. If I didn't cause global warming, and you didn't, then it must be a natural event and all go away by itself.

 

[jordanbasset]

Perhaps I am an optimist but this looks positive to me, the first line says

'NOAA forecasters say a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. However, as with any season, the need to prepare for the possibility of a storm striking near you is essential.'

Seems like an average year predicted, with a 75% chance of normal to fewer than normal hurricanes - good news /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[Bejasus]

still, it only takes the one thats heading straight for you. /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

 

[dulcibella]

Still a bit early for me to be leaving the Azores!!!!

 

[Bejasus]

oh, and I often take what NOAA tell me with a large pinch of salt. Can usually add between 2-6 ft on their wave heights, from experience. /forums/images/graemlins/mad.gif

 

[jordanbasset]

Hi I don't disagree, all I am saying is that the report says we are in for an average hurricane season - I take that in the sameway that I take the report we are in for a good summer,may be right, may be wrong. I prefer to be an optimist, but have been let down before (last year springs to mind)
But equally it cannot be construed from the report itself to be bad news.

 

[rhumlady]

Just read the news article about the new Met office Super Super computer. Now they can get the forecast wrong even quicker and at even greater expense.