Is it really a poor season or is it just bad weather forecasters

[DAKA]

Last weekend I was about to cast off when 3 separate people came to me to ask if it would be 'safe out there', apparently it was force 6-7.

It looked alright to me not even howling in the rigging but as I had not checked the weather that day I did get my lap top out, everything looked fine for two days.

Perplexed I checked the Met Office inshore site /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Red ring all the way round the UK /forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif
Well at least I had found what the concern was about and off we went.

There were a lot of yachts out with reefed sails (presume they had also seen the forecast) but the conditions were calm, not even moderate.

Why does the Met office insist on putting out High Wind warnings when the expected weather is 4-5.

They appear to be calculating Headland amplification and after noon sea breezes into account.......isnt that the skippers call, its 4-5 so best not go round the next headland too close inshore as it could be 6 and a bit choppy ?

Anyway point of the post is to forget the met office inshore forecast and learn how to interpret synoptics and enjoy your boat, it will take a lot more than you think.

Take a look here, there is nothing that will sink your boat all week !

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/swell/in/

 

[gjgm]

Anyway point of the post is to forget the met office inshore forecast and learn how to interpret synoptics and enjoy your boat, it will take a lot more than you think.
***********

I dont really agree with you if your suggestion is that a bit of understanding of synoptics charts is going to be superior to the Met Office capabilities.
In the end, its just a forecast, whether yours or theirs, and covering a fair sized area. Of course there will be variations within that area, and armed with a professional forecast, you can consider variations to that based on local and actual, real time experience.
I think it also depends on your own plans. For a bit of dawdling about the Solent, all likeliehood is that you can get back home pretty promptly. If your plans are a long trip around notorious headlands, I'd be inclined to base my decisions of professional forecasts, rather than lets get 40 miles down the coast and see what its like !
In the end, I m just after some fun, and I m not too interested in risking being bashed about it a lousy sea, if I can help it.
Mind you, from November, we probably cant afford to exit Southampton Water anyway , so wont need any forecasts at all

 

[maybh1]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does the Met office insist on putting out High Wind warnings when the expected weather is 4-5.



They are probably worried about being sued by some irate boat owner if they get it wrong and he gets into trouble out there

We noticed a couple of years ago that they always seem to err on the high side

May
xx

 

[mjf]

Covering ars*s

I agree.

if you look at the posted stuff you would never leave your berth.

Bit like the pilot books. Have a look to see what the approach to the nice place you have found and Hey Ho! only enter with caution and never in SW 5+ etc etc.


Best bet is use the synoptic chart and keep up to date with it at the same time mainatin an eye on the baro pressure. Last week the forecast was at least 1 Force higher than where I was and 1/2 Forces higher than Bramble Bank internet thingy.

Must say (excuse drift) the Vodfone dongle 3G was the biz even in Newtown Creek.

 

[Sixpence]

Re: Covering ars*s

As you mentioned barometers, just thought I'd point out that mine's been dropping relatively fast for the past few hours, must be nearly the weekend /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif

 

[Malcb]

The Met Office appear to issue a strong wind warning when there is F6 and above in their forecast.

Premier Marinas always, well at Chichester, put a very brief resume of the expected weather at the entrance to the marina, which theytake from the Met Office Inshore forecast. A couple of years ago you would see possibly F3/4, nowadays you will see F3/5, which leads me to believe that the Met Office exaggerate the max wind speed in order to cover themselves. Metcheck, on the otherhand appear to use average wind speeds which may be lower than the maximum.

 

[Ballistix]

Hm..hard one...we've just got back from 3 days in the Solent, superb, other than yesterday where we knew the wind would get up a bit, it had done so a previous day but this time combined with the tide made it extremely uncomfortable on the way back to Hamble Point from Lymington yesterday afternoon!

T

 

[mjf]

Yep but thats wind over tide causing sea state to be moderate.

The point is the Met Office covering themselves by over calling the wind force expected.

Lat week they certainly did. Although should a little 'system' develop i guess the gusts associated might be within the forecast.

Who knows?

 

[Ifraser]

I agree that they often forecast too high... but I'd rather plan for higher and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around... Iain